The UK government <a href="https://www.beta.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/september2024">recorded</a> a deficit of -£16.6bn in September. This was more than consensus estimates of a deficit of -£10.3bn, and higher than the Office of Budget Responsibility's (OBR) forecast of -£14.7bn. This is also an increase from last September's figure of -£14.5bn.Meanwhile, the more crucial net borrowing figure which excludes public banks, was also recorded at -£16.6bn. Althought this was better than consensus estimates of -£17.5bn, it remains worse than the OBR's estimate of -£15.6bn.As a result, public sector net debt excluding public sector banks as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) was provisionally estimated at 98.5% — 4.0% higher from last September, but 1.5% lower than August's 100.0%.Newspage asked experts for their opinions on the latest figures, what this could spell for the upcoming Budget, as well as their likely impact on swap rates and gilt yields.

Government borrowing surges and will "come at the expense" of British Public

Not for the first time this year, gold has hit another all-time high. The yellow metal has climbed past $2,700 per ounce as global demand for the safe-haven asset along with expectations of further interest rate cuts from major central banks grows.This comes on the back of the European Central Bank cutting rates for the third time this year. The commodity has also found further bullishness from tensions in the Middle East. Wes Wilkes, CEO at <a href="https://www.net-worthntwrk.com">Net-Worth NTWRK</a>, said: "After a significant 13-year consolidation period, the breakout in gold is set to push higher. With the current trend alongside the upcoming US election uncertainty and ongoing geopolitical tensions, we can expect the $3,000 gold level to be breached with a high degree of certainty and it could even happen before we close the door on 2024."Prem Raja, Head of Trading Floor at <a href="https://www.currencies4you.com">Currencies 4 You</a>, added: “The strength in precious metals and gold in particular this year has been phenomenal, with factors such as lower interest rates, the U.S election and the current Middle East tensions seeing gold prices reach new highs of $2700. I personally believe gold is still on an upward trend and $3000 per ounce is now a real possibility. In the short term I do think a small correction is due, this is something we will probably see from November into December, and then it will be worth bidding again going into 2025. It's still a bull market for precious metals and pullbacks are healthy.”Meanwhile, Anita Wright, Independent Financial Adviser at <a href="https://www.anita-wright.co.uk">Bolton James</a>, said the gold rush has only just started: "Although gold has reached a new all-time high, the real action in gold prices hasn't started yet, and there is still much upside potential. Many key drivers that historically push gold prices higher are not yet fully in play. For instance, real interest rates remain positive, and the U.S. dollar has retained some strength. Interest rate cuts have only just begun, and we have not yet seen the significant negative real yields that often fuel gold's rise. In addition, geopolitical factors, such as sanctions on Russia, are pushing many BRICS countries to reduce their dependency on the dollar, which could lead to dollar weakness in the near future—a key driver for gold. With the fiat currency system under strain and a potential "race to the bottom" for many currencies, gold could continue its upward momentum. It's possible that gold could reach the $3,000–$3,200 range before seeing another pause."More comments below. Please credit Newspage. &nbsp;

Gold passes $2,700 to hit new all-time high "and $3000 per ounce is now a real possibility"

Following Barclays' earlier today, Halifax has followed suit with its own set of rate hikes. Starting tomorrow, the UK's biggest lender will be instigating rate increases on 2- and 5-year fixed rate products between 0.11% and 0.24%. Newspage asked brokers for their views, below.

Halifax increases rates

Markets immediately started to &nbsp;price in more rate cuts as UK headline, core and services <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/latest">inflation</a> all came in much lighter than expected Wednesday morning, with the Pound immediately weakening against the US Dollar and dropping below the 1.30 level for the first time in a couple of months. Newspage asked experts what their thoughts are on the outlook for GBP, inflation, and whether markets are being too optimistic to price in such a dovish Bank of England moving forward. Their views are below.

GBP/USD back below £1.30 for first time in almost 2 months: "This morning's inflation print had an immediate impact on Sterling"

The Bank of England, much like the Government, will be delighted as headline inflation has dropped back below its target range. According to the <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/latest#latest-movements-in-cpi-inflation">Office for National Statistics</a>, headline inflation fell to 1.7% in September, from 2.2% in August, comfortably clearing consensus of 1.9%. On a month-on-month basis, the headline rate declined to 0.0% from 0.3%.Meanwhile, core inflation fell back to 3.2%, having seen its first jump in over a year last month, from 3.6%. Consensus estimates were for 3.4%. The month-on-month rate was also cooler than anticipated, at 0.1% from 0.4%. Services inflation also pared back after a shock jump in the previous month, to 4.9% from 5.6%, smashing consensus estimates of 5.4%. Experts have said this means another base rate cut in November is as good as “baked in”, while another the cut before Christmas is also a possibility. This will be good news for mortgage borrowers and the broader property market.Newspage asked experts for their thoughts on what this spells for the rate cutting outlook, how it could impact markets and the £, and what it could mean for mortgages. Their views are below.

Inflation returns to 4-year low: "The pressure is now on Threadneedle Street to cut the base rate in November"

The UK continues to show that its labour market remains resilient. The unemployment rate fell for a third consecutive month in August, to 4.0% from 4.1%, according to the latest <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/latest">data</a> by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), beating consensus estimates.Meanwhile, total earnings growth cooled for a fourth consecutive month to 3.8% from an upward revised 4.1%, matching estimates. More encouragingly, regular earnings growth which strips out bonuses, although still higher, also declined and matched estimates, to 4.9% from 5.1%.The number of people in employment also rose for a fourth consecutive month to 373k, significantly higher than the 250k markets had expected. Going the other way, however, the number of people making unemployment related benefits edged up to 27.9k from a heavily downward revised figure of only 0.3k.Newspage asked experts for their thoughts on the latest data, how this shifts the inflation outlook, and what this could spell for the Bank of England's rate-cutting cycle.

Cooling wage growth 'offers hope for those anticipating rate cuts'

M/M <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/august2024">GDP</a> grew 0.2% in August, meating consensus estimates. However, on a Y/Y basis, economic growth was at 1%. Whilst this marked the third consecutive month of higher growth, it did come in below expectations of 1.4%.Newspage asked experts for their thoughts on what this could spell for a December rate cut, what the outlook is for the UK economy, and the GBP.

"We are not slipping on growth" as GDP growth beats forecast

Inflation continues to cool in the US, as the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">data</a> showed that headline inflation feel again in September, to 2.4% from 2.5%. However, this was above consensus estimates of 2.3%, whilst core inflation remains ticked up to 3.3% from 3.2%. On a month-on-month basis, though, both headline and core inflation remained sticky, with both the headline and core rates stagnant at 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively.Nonetheless, supercore inflation, which strips out the volatile elements of food, energy, and housing costs, did see some encouragement, falling to 4.3% on a year-on-year basis, from August's 4.5%. Although, this was not helped by the fact that the month-on-month print ticked higher to 0.4% from 0.3%.As of 2:00 PM BST (9:00 AM EST), the CME Fed Watch Tool places the odds of a 25bps rate cut in November at c.85%, and a c.15% chance of a no-cut scenario. This is in comparison to c.75% odds of a 25bps rate cut and c.25% odds of a no-cut prior to the release of the CPI data.Newspage asked analysts, economists, and traders for their thoughts on what this could spell for the odds of a November rate cut, whether inflation has been slain, and whether there are any risks to any inflation shock.

US CPI inflation hotter than estimates, but Fed expected to press on with 25bps cut at November meeting

The latest <a href="https://www.rics.org/content/dam/ricsglobal/documents/market-surveys/September_2024_RICS_UK_Residential_Market_Survey.pdf">Residentlal Market Survey</a> from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) showed that surveyors saw house prices grow by 11% in September, up from a downwardly revised 0% in August, and above consensus estimates of 4%. This marks the highest rate of respondents seeing house prices increase since September 2022, before the events of the Mini Budget crisis.More encouragingly, respondents continue to be bullish about the outlook for house prices. Over the next 3 months, 12% of surveyors expect house prices to continue increasing, whilst a whopping 54% expect increases over the next 12 months, a further uptick from the 50% reported in August.Other sub-metrics also remained in positive territory. Buyer enquiries were up, according to 14% of respondents, a touch down from the 16% reported in the month before. However, new listings rocketed, said 22% of respondents, from August's 9%. That said, sales volumes remain relatively muted, with only 5% seeing an increase, largely unmoved from 6% in August, although the outlook for the year ahead did improve to 44%.<figure class="image"><img src="https://cdn.newspage.media/production/company/11483/files/b24e377558566fd27722d8a5be9e1b4d8059d35daa0e183aa7e17034e802778bfb3adf0ff2c37ab77a50907369199cd2b9f8aa1f53ed0bcbf53fe37e20cabcc8.webp"></figure>Newspage asked mortgage brokers and property experts for their thoughts on the data, the outlook for the housing market, and what potential risks could undermine the positive outlook going into 2025.

House prices surge to highest since Mini-Budget crisis

Overnight, China announced a ¥500bn swap facility to support their stock market which had initially seen a meteoric rise, only to plunge in a matter of days. As a result, the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) and Hang Seng jumped by 2.8% and 4.0% by lunch time, respectively, paring back some of the losses seen over the past day. The SSE had fallen over 6% from its peak earlier this week, while the Hang Seng crashed over 10%.The purpose of the swap scheme will be to allow for financial institutions to better access funding to buy stocks, particularly institutions which aren't banks and do not have the necessary amount of liquidity to inject into the stock market. With this facility, said institutions will be able to swap out less liquid assets such as ETFs for more liquid assets like treasury bonds.These more liquid assets can then be more easily leveraged or sold for cash. As a result, the the central bank is hoping that this will give such institutions more confidence to invest in the stock market. Although, it's worth noting that this isn't necessarily a cash injection, as the PBOC's balance sheet remains the same, with the base money supply remaining stagnant.Newspage asked analysts, economists, and traders for their thoughts on the impact of these measures, whether such moves could revive a stalling Chinese stock market, and what this could spell for the Chinese economy as a whole.

China announces ¥500bn swap facility to support stock market

The outlook for the retail sector could be brightening as we enter the all-important Golden Quarter. Retail sales grew 2% from last year, marking the strongest growth rate in 6 months, and an improvement from August's 0.8%, according to the latest British Retail Consortium (BRC) Retail Sales Monitor. On a like-for-like basis, sales grew 1.7% from last month's 0.8%, and beating consensus estimates of 1.1%.Food sales ticked higher to 3.1% from 2.9% in August. However, it was non-food sales which saw the biggest improvement to -0.3% from -1.7%, albeit still in negative territory.&nbsp;BRC CEO Helen Dickinson said, "As autumn rolled out across the UK, shoppers sought to update their wardrobes with coats, boots, and knitwear. However, ongoing concerns of consumers about the financial outlook kept demand low for big-ticket items such as furniture and white goods”.<figure class="image"><img src="https://static.standard.co.uk/2024/10/08/00/07105042-42281be5-24d4-4d19-9739-8fe896da0079.png?quality=75&amp;auto=webp&amp;width=960"></figure>Newspage asked economists, analysts, and traders for their thoughts on what this spells for the retail sector moving forward into the Golden Quarter, the cost-of-living crisis, and the UK economy.

Retail sector outlook brightens after strongest growth in 6 months

Recent economic data suggests Russia's economy may be in a more precarious position than previously thought. Despite official narratives, the country's GDP growth has slowed significantly, dropping to 2.4% from 3.5% last year. This fell short of expectations of &nbsp;2.8%. This decline comes alongside an unexpected surge in real wage growth to 8.1%, overshooting projections of 6.0%.Alongside this, Russia's National Wealth Fund reserves could be depleted as soon as next year, according to <a href="https://www.fink.money/p/russia-is-on-the-brink-of-crisis">research</a> by Fink Money. Fink Money found that, with the current deficit consuming about $40bn annually, this will pile on further financial strain, something further evidenced by Russia's 10-year bond yields reaching levels higher than those &nbsp;seen during the Global Financial Crisis.The situation is compounded by ongoing sanctions, particularly affecting gas exports to Europe, and a potential softening in oil prices as Saudi Arabia abandons its $100 oil target. With limited options for financing and a weakening ruble, Russia's economic outlook appears increasingly challenging.Newspage asked economists, IFAs, and analysts for their thoughts on the current geopolitical situation, the outlook for the Russian economy, and how that could impact energy prices.

Russia at risk of "plunging into economic blackhole" as war costs mount

With this week marking the start of Q4, investors may be set for a boon in the lead up to 2025. Research from Newspage found that UK stocks have historically performed well in the final quarter of an election year, since 1987. By proxy of the FTSE All-Share Index, UK equities have risen by a median average of 3.4% over the past nine election cycles, only failing to eke out positive gains in two of them.Having said that, it's worth noting that those two instances had only occurred when the Bank of England (BoE) was halfway through its rate-hiking cycle, in 1987 and 1997. In all other seven instances when stock prices went up, the Bank had already been half-way through its rate-cutting cycle or had rates at sub-1%.However, the same trend isn't seen with small and micro-cap stocks on the FTSE AIM All Share Index, where volatility is more prevalent, as returns were negative in 2005 (BoE had cut rates), as well as in 2015 when returns were flat (sub-1% rate). That said, the FTSE 250 Index have found the most success over this time period, gaining a median average of 9.1%, as compared to its larger-cap/FTSE 100 (2.8%) and smaller cap/FTSE AIM (4.1%) peers.<figure class="image"><img src="https://cdn.newspage.media/production/company/11483/files/06ad339d80054915dc43783a2519ff248257aa22faf6833660e7f6e15df3c1cf2680180fc3e087b79a2d9fe58afb839bf183ca3658d5a5b6ac14ea12c986b387.webp"></figure>Newspage asked traders, analysts, and IFAs for their thoughts on the outlook for UK stocks, what potential upside or downside risks there are to this trend, and how the upcoming Budget could impact near-term performance.

Investors to see boon in coming months as UK stocks up 3.4% in Q4 of election years

Another 50bps cut from the US Federal Reserve in November is less likely after the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm">latest non-farm payrolls (NFP) data</a> showed that the labour market remains more resilient that Wall Street had anticipated. September's NFP headline print came in at a significant 254k, above consensus estimates of 140k. In addition to that, August's print was revised upwards to 159k from 142k.The reason for September's stronger print was the strength of the private sector, as private payrolls effectively doubled to 223k from 114k, beating estimates of 125k. Government hiring of 31k also continues to help lift the overall NFP headline number.The unemployment rate also dropped and remains within range of what the Fed would classify as “full employment”, at 4.1% from 4.2%. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings rose again to 4.0% after jumping to an upwardly revised 3.9% last month, on a year-on-year basis.Newspage asked experts for their thoughts on the latest data, how it could impact the Fed's decision-making and inflation more broadly. Their views are below.

Odds of 50bps Fed cut reduced as "the US labour market goes supernova"

In the lead up to Friday's all-important non-farm payrolls numbers, the latest jobs <a href="https://adp-ri-nrip-static.adp.com/artifacts/us_ner/20241002/ADP_NATIONAL_EMPLOYMENT_REPORT_Press_Release_2024_09%20FINAL.pdf?_ga=2.46051236.1828756305.1727860949-2083043925.1727860949">report</a> from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) shows that the labour market may not be as weak as markets have been making it out to be.According to ADP, private businesses managed to add a net of 143k workers to their payrolls in September. The headline print also beat consensus estimates of 120k, rebounding off its 3-year low. This comes on the back of an upwardly revised figure for August as well, with jobs created at 103k, as compared to the initial 99k reported last month.ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson said: “Stronger hiring didn't require stronger pay growth last month. Typically, workers who change jobs see faster pay growth. But that premium over job-stayers shrank to 1.9 percent, matching a low we last saw in January."<figure class="image"><img src="https://cdn.newspage.media/production/company/11483/files/afb8d2e93ab7b0e942d1d90ab8836e24f27eef8bf2fc8f9efc4a1d0b1e7a50b30f010956d6b6e325be12584f46a5ee6f20dc9e06741e833e2f692bb696609ace.webp"></figure>Newspage asked economists, analysts, and traders on what this could spell for the non-farm payrolls numbers on Friday, what this suggests about the US labour market, and the outlook for rate cuts.

US ADP report sees private payrolls rebound, and will "likely open a Pandora’s Box" for Fed

Significant downside risks to equities have come into play as Iran prepares to launch a missile attack on Israel in retaliation to the latter's attack on Hizbollah in Lebanon. Fears of an all-out war in the Middle East have escalated, hitting US equities. The Dow Jones is down 0.6%, S&amp;P down 1.2%, and the NASDAQ down 1.9%.On the back of these escalations, the US dollar index has spiked to 0.5% to 101.28. The pound is losing value, sliding against all major currencies. GBP/USD plunges 0.9% to $1.3250, while GBP/JPY has lost a shocking 1.2%. GBP/CAD is also hit with a 1.1% drop.However, commodities are having a hay day. Brent Crude futures have spiked 5.8%, while UK gas futures rising to £97.45, a year-to-date high. And as ever, gold is up 1.2% and is in touching distance of yet another all-time high.Newspage is looking for any thoughts you might have on the current tensions in the Middle East, what this could spell for equities as well as other asset classes/commodities, and what risks this could mean for inflation.

Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ in the red as Iran prepares to launch missile against Israel

To kick start a heavy week filled with US labour market data, the latest <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm">Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs)</a> has pushed back on suggestions that the labour market is cooling.Job openings broke their streak of hitting a 3-year low, as openings in August rebounded to 8.04m, from 7.71m in July. It's worth noting that July's figure was also revised upwards from 7.67m. The final print also came in above consensus estimates of 7.66m. Job openings continue to remain above their pre-pandemic levels, as 7.18k jobs were open in the same month in 2019.On the flip side, job quits have hit a 3-year low, coming in at 3.08m, and sizeably lower than July's 3.28m, and consensus estimates of 3.27m. The quits rate (voluntary job leavers as a percentage of total employment) fell to 1.9%. This signals a tight labour market as employees aren't as willing to quit their jobs in search of another one due to employment uncertainty, the quits rate tells a different story.Newspage, asked economists, analysts, and traders for their thoughts on what this data spells for the state of the labour market, what potential forecasts they may have about this Friday's upcoming non-farm payrolls data, and the outlook for rate cuts moving forward.

US job openings get JOLT of life, but underlying data paints "paradoxical picture"

Shop prices are now at their lowest levels in 3 years, according to the latest <a href="https://brc.org.uk/news/corporate-affairs/shop-prices-move-further-into-deflation/">report</a> by the British Retail Consortium (BRC). Overall shop price inflation was at -0.6% in September, down from -0.3% in August, and below the 3-month average of -0.3%.Non-food inflation continued to drop to -2.1% from -1.5%. However, food inflation rose to 2.3% from 2.0%, thanks to a jump in fresh food inflation, which saw its inflation rate increase to 1.5% from 1.0%.BRC Chief Executive Helen Dickinson said: “September was a good month for bargain hunters as big discounts and fierce competition pushed shop prices further into deflation. Easing price inflation will certainly be welcomed by consumers, but ongoing geopolitical tensions, climate change and government-imposed regulatory costs could all reverse this trend."<figure class="image"><img src="https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/RNsthVZCU0eOz8uifVbrPg--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTQwNg--/https://media.zenfs.com/en/snappa.ukfinance/237cd5438f004c430136f2f24c2b52a3" alt="A graph showing annual growth rate"></figure>Newspage asked experts for their thoughts on what this data spells for the cost-of-living crisis, the outlook for the retail sector, and for overall inflation moving forward.

Shop prices hit 3-year low, but "inflation outlook remains delicate"

The latest data from the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the <a href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2024">Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index</a>, is showing mixed signals surrounding inflation. On a headline basis, inflation cooled to 2.2% from 2.5%, driven by lower energy costs. However, core PCE jumped by 0.1% to 2.7%, showing that the inflation battle may not be over quite just yet. Personal spending and income also fell from last month, to 0.2%.Newspage asked economists, analysts, and traders for their thoughts on the outlook for rate cuts, the US economy, and the health of the US consumer. Their views are below.

November rate cut finely balanced after Fed's preferred inflation gauge remains sticky

The US economy continues to shine after its <a href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-third-estimate-corporate-profits-revised-estimate-and-gdp-0">Q2 GDP growth</a> print of 3.0% was confirmed, thanks to resilient consumer spending, despite spending growth getting revised to 2.8% from 2.9%. Q1 GDP growth was also upgraded to 1.6% from 1.4%, as there were upward revisions to private inventory investment and government spending. Meanwhile, 2023, GDP growth was revised up to 2.9% from 2.5%, and to a whopping 2.5% from 1.9% in 2022. Newspage asked experts for their thoughts as to what this says about the state of the US economy and the implications this might have for rate cuts for the rest of 2024 and beyond. Their views are below.

US economy flexes muscles after strong final Q2 GDP growth of 3.0%

One of the Monetary Policy Committee's more hawkish members, Megan Greene, released a <a href="https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2024/september/whos-buying-speech-by-megan-greene.pdf">speech</a> this morning. She continues to retain her base case that inflation remains a risk if rates are cut too soon due to elevated wage pressures, and believes in a more “gradual approach" to cutting interest rates. However, there has been some easing in her tone, as she now places a greater probability on the economy weakening. Newspage asked financial services experts for their views on the speech and if it increases the chance of a rate cut in November. Their views are below.

MPC hawk Megan Greene softens her stance in latest speech

The US economy continues to show resilience, pushing back the narrative of further rate cuts. This comes on the back of the latest <a href="https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/35c60149cdbe461fb6bc3c959a58a551">Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data</a> which showed that the overall US economy continues to expand at a healthy pace, despite the manufacturing sector continuing to slump. Free news agency, Newspage, asked experts for their thoughts, which can be found below.

"Latest US PMI data challenges the case for aggressive rate cuts moving forward"

The FTSE 100 could see most or all of its gains this year reverse course. Major oil and gas companies, as well as banks are in new Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ crosshairs, as she attempts to raise funds to cover the £22bn “black hole” in the country’s finances. The Chancellor could now be eyeing up a potential windfall tax on these corporations despite saying before the general election that there were no such plans to do so.If Reeves does decide to instil a windfall tax, it could have severe ramifications on Britain’s premier index. Heavyweights like Shell, BP, and HSBC make up the top five constituents of the FTSE 100. Altogether, the three constitute almost a fifth of the FTSE 100’s weighting (18.9%) – meaning that any significant movement in their share prices could sway the benchmark greatly.North Sea giants are already paying a 35% Energy Profits Levy (EPL) based on the previous administration’s legislation, equating to a tax rate as high as 75%. However, Labour could hike the rate to 78% or higher, while also removing the ability to have any tax deducted if the&nbsp;money is spent on investment and exploration.A similar increase for banks may be implemented as well. Banks already pay a levy – a charge introduced in response to the global financial crisis in 2008 to cover any future financial shocks. Currently, banks are taxed at a rate of 0.1% for short-term liabilities and 0.05% for long-term liabilities, but that could be doubled.It’s also worth noting that energy and bank stocks make up 24.3% of the FTSE 100. As such, a windfall tax on these sectors could end up doing a lot of damage. In the near term, it would drastically reduce their profits, and impact their earnings per share, which is how stocks are usually valued. More worryingly, it could also damage the investment theses of these stocks and drive further investment away from an already beleaguered British stock market.Newspage asked economists, analysts, and experts for their views on how this could impact foreign investment in the UK, the FTSE 100, and other measures the government could take to avoid harming the key sectors of the economy.<figure class="image"><img src="https://cdn.newspage.media/production/company/11483/files/77876218a1ca7453d325e68794501363175352afa322dd4e11028397add4613d43ba7e38c74c789cb5cc41adbe6a690bebb535ddb8bcc8fedf490f23d25ef2fd.webp"></figure>

Reeves's potential windfall tax will crumble FTSE 100 giants and "diminish UK's stature as global financial hub"

An increasing number of homeowners are interested in taking on equity release (ER), according to the latest Equity Release Council (ERC)&nbsp;<a href="https://www.equityreleasecouncil.com/news/no-brick-left-unturned-three-in-five-uk-homeowners-look-to-property-wealth-to-prop-up-retirement-dream/">survey</a>. As such, those interested in the scheme could find themselves in a favourable position in the current rate environment, as research from Newspage and&nbsp;<a href="https://sadrabbit.io/">Sad Rabbit Investments</a> found that the effective cost of borrowing is now at its lowest since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008.According to the ERC, 61% of homeowners are interested in ER, up from 57% in 2021, partly due to the cost-of-living crisis. Care-related costs was the main reason cited by 17% of respondents, followed by a need to boost retirement income (16%), and funding travel plans (15%). This increase in ER demand intersects with the best circumstances the market has seen since 2008, given the current&nbsp;<a href="https://www.later-life-planning.co.uk/compare-equity-release#">rates</a> being offered by several providers and&nbsp;<a href="https://uk.investing.com/rates-bonds/uk-15-year-bond-yield">gilt yields</a> today.Over the last two decades, the average ER rate has always hovered in the 5-7% range, and above the average rates of a standard 2-year or 5-year mortgage. Thus, when interest rates fell to sub-1% following the GFC, the effective cost of borrowing skyrocketed, as gilt yields plunged, while ER rates remained elevated.For context, the average ER rate was 6.39% pre-GFC, with the 15Y gilt yielding an average of 4.67%, making the average cost of borrowing 1.71%. However, while the average ER rate did drop ever so slightly to 5.70% post-GFC, the average 15Y gilt yield plateaued to 2.43%, thereby almost doubling the average cost of borrowing to 3.27%. But at no point since the GFC has the cost of borrowing touched sub-2%, until today, where it’s at 1.62%, thanks to a rise in gilt yields.Of course, homeowners will still have to deal with costs, as the interest generated from gilts won't be enough to fully offset the interest charged by the lender for the equity released. This is because interest from gilts doesn't compound, while the lender's loan does. But with house prices rebounding and the effective cost of borrowing at its lowest, this could help provide the biggest interest coverage for those interested in ER since 2008.Newspage asked brokers, economists, and IFAs for their views on this bit of research, whether homeowners should consider equity release , and whether this could impact the housing market.<figure class="image"><img src="https://cdn.newspage.media/production/company/11483/files/522cc2223a6b66bf95da6abdc404100773bfabeea10d6633d2e2dcb20325cead120f27c897587ccc14149c07b70a6a8b32e70be05c7cc78278c50725a677fc60.webp"></figure>

"Golden opportunity for homeowners" for equity release with current rate environment 

Amongst the list of areas in which new Chancellor Rachel Reeves is looking to launch a tax attack on, inheritance tax (IHT) looks to be one of her main targets. The Chancellor disclosed that there’s a £22bn “black hole” in the nation’s finances and is looking for ways to shore up funds via tax revenues to fill the gap. However, questions remain as to whether taxing inheritance has brought about any growth to begin with.Research from Newspage found that GDP (output) and IHT have an inverse relationship. The general trends show that the GDP-to-IHT ratio has fallen steadily over the years. In other words, as inheritance tax receipts have gone up, the amount of output per £1 of inheritance taxed has reduced over the years.Nonetheless, what’s more interesting, is that when IHT receipts dropped following the global financial crisis, the GDP-to-IHT ratio increased. This suggests that taxing inheritance is an extremely inefficient way to grow the economy, as the amount of growth doesn’t warrant the large amount taxed.<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hmrc-tax-and-nics-receipts-for-the-uk/hmrc-tax-receipts-and-national-insurance-contributions-for-the-uk-new-monthly-bulletin#inheritance-tax-iht">IHT receipts</a> only seem to have grown larger, however. In the period between April 2024 to July 2024, IHT receipts have surged to £2.8bn, approximately £200m higher than the same period last year.&nbsp;But with Reeves looking to potentially include pensions in the scope of inheritance tax, many people who previously would not have faced such a liability may suddenly find themselves with a serious inheritance tax problem.Newspage asked economists, IFAs, and experts for their views on whether the trends shown can be attributed to other economic factors, how changes to IFT could affect wealth distribution and economic growth, and alternative tax structures.<figure class="image"><img src="https://cdn.newspage.media/production/company/11483/files/3a88241ade8f74d129fb9709d838484c2aad23d9c48b968f3cdf1dee3a6a82fa4d654eb98e73e4f6c7ce3a0d4f8a9ec0306659b7cc4ae614ab0d58c336801ee3.webp"></figure>

Inverse relationship between GDP and IHT receipts means higher IHT could hurt economic growth

The odds of a September rate cut might’ve just taken a bump after a leading indicator for services inflation showed encouraging signs of abating. The <a href="https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/6ea3750fbad64c20a3cd068c82f6ebd6">services PMI</a> survey for August confirmed what its flash estimate had projected 2 weeks ago – cooling services inflation. Meanwhile, the Bank of England's (BoE) latest&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/decision-maker-panel/2024/august-2024">Decision Maker Panel (DMP) survey</a> also showed positive signs, as CFOs signalled a further drop in output price inflation to 4.0%, from 4.3% in July.More encouragingly, the BoE survey also found that firms expect to reduce their own-inflation rate in the year ahead to 3.6%, from the 3.7% stated last month. As such, it’s no surprise that executives see the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rate at 2.7% a year from now. This complements the drop in annual wage growth to 5.8%, from 5.9% in July, although expected year-ahead wage growth remained stagnant at 4.1%.This ties in perfectly with the PMI data, as the services sector expanded with a reading of 53.7 from 52.5, beating initial estimates of 53.3. Most prominently, both input and output cost inflation eased to yet another 3.5-year low, extending its run from July. This implies that the effect of cooling wages is slowly seeping into services inflation, albeit with salaries paid still at an elevated level.New business continues to look healthy again, and just fractionally lower than the 14-month high seen in July. This saw services companies employ more workers, extending the current period of job creation seen in each month of the year thus far. That said, backlogs continued to deplete for a 15th consecutive month. Business confidence also dropped slightly from July, as some respondents cited elevated business uncertainty ahead of the Autumn Budget.Considering that the decision for a September rate cut hangs in the balance due to the main concern surrounding services inflation, this morning’s data could see traders begin to price in a higher chance of a cut in 2 weeks’ time. With one or two members swaying either way of a hold or cut vote, all eyes will be on the CPI data on the 18th for confirmation that services inflation is indeed cooling as expected.Newspage asked economists, analysts, and brokers for their views on the possibility of a September rate cut, what the latest data could spell for the economy, and the outlook for the housing market.<figure class="image"><img src="https://cdn.newspage.media/production/company/11483/files/7bc1256357fa7b838768ef0ae81f506c7797507a3cc3984110f8676f1b066df57c08140c895996fa6f93c6ba499ee77c61f39242b20b66e5d558ab9b53e70924.webp"></figure>

September rate cut more likely after inflation indicators point in right direction

The UK may be ushering in a golden era after the latest labour market <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/latest">data</a> showed another set of “Goldilocks” figures. The unemployment rate in July dropped to&nbsp;4.1% from 4.2% – the lowest since January, while pay growth continued to cool. Meanwhile, total pay growth dropped to&nbsp;4.0% from 4.5%, while regular pay growth slid to&nbsp;5.1% from 5.4%. With headline inflation currently at 2.2%, real wage growth continues to trend positive at&nbsp;1.8%.Considering how crucial what the Bank of England (BoE) classifies as “full employment” is to the UK’s strong economic growth thus far in 2024, a low 4% unemployment rate positions Britain’s economy to continue powering on. Given that real wages also remain firmly positive despite wage growth cooling, this gives workers more discretionary income to spend, thereby giving the economy a further boost.Be that as it may, today’s data could also eradicate the possibility of what was already a slim chance of a September rate cut. Still, markets continue to expect another 25bps cut before the end of the year, which should further serve as a catalyst in a healthy economy held strongly together by a resilient labour market.Newspage asked economists, IFAs, and analysts for their views on what the latest data could imply for the UK economy, a September rate cut, and other securities such as commodities.<figure class="image"><img src="https://cdn.newspage.media/production/company/11483/files/b620ef9a7ada96e1971d5876ed8bb5192decf223070ab7e259f922918592e76fe00a5af4ef89cfb44d01c8828d6f76013e0f11b0d47f75e5e33f461490c1348a.webp"></figure>

Low unemployment and strong wages brings UK's golden age

With a September rate cut still looking unlikely despite encouraging third-party data last week, all eyes will be on tomorrow's labour market data as the most crucial piece of macro figures for the week ahead.On the wage side, the Bank of England (BoE) estimates pay growth to have cooled further in July. Bank staff are projecting regular pay growth to drop lower to 4.9% from June’s 5.4%, while expecting total pay growth to decline to 4.2% from 4.5%. This would push wage growth closer to the sub-4% mark that’s in line with sustainable 2% headline inflation.<a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/bulletins/earningsandemploymentfrompayasyouearnrealtimeinformationuk/august2024#median-monthly-pay">Flash estimates</a> from last month’s labour data suggest a downward trend may continue. Median earnings growth is forecast to come in at 5.6% year-on-year. Although this is significantly higher than June’s 3.8%, it’s worth noting that June’s drop was due to&nbsp; the lapping of one-time bonuses paid a year ago; July’s estimated print would still come in lower than May’s 6.0%. Median earnings are also seen to drop ever so slightly on a monthly basis, to £2,388 from £2,390.There will also be a lot of attention paid to the unemployment rate, which the BoE anticipates to remain still at 4.2%. However, if July’s claimant count change data translates into higher unemployment (the highest since May 2020 at 566.9k), it could mark the highest rate in 3 years. That said, it’s worth stating that figures are always a month in advance of the unemployment data and are usually subject to large revisions.Third-party data from&nbsp;<a href="https://kpmg.com/uk/en/home/media/press-releases/2024/08/kpmg-and-rec-uk-report-on-jobs-august-2024.html">KPMG and REC</a>, however, does suggest further cooling in the labour market, as vacancies continued to fall for a 9th consecutive month while labour ability continued to rise. On the wage side, permanent staff salaries did continue to increase, albeit at a slower pace and was “below trend”, while temp staff salary inflation was at its lowest for nearly 3.5 years – in line with what the services PMI data had suggested as well.Newspage asked analysts, economists, and experts for their views and predictions for the unemployment and wage data this Tuesday.<figure class="image"><img src="https://cdn.newspage.media/production/company/11483/files/de30a7cad9eaea31bf1d345adc60cde198106dfa84cd7873c47106026adb8c973b2e1493497370ad066df6b8da438e564873a067d80905f5e2df3d1ee8d414a1.webp"></figure>

Unemployment to rise and wage growth to fall?

The latest <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm">US non-farm payrolls</a> number came in worse than expected. A mere 142k jobs were created in August, below the median consensus of 160k, although above estimates of 120k. However, the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%.Making matters worse, both June and July’s numbers were also revised downwards. June saw its numbers decrease to 118k from 179k, while July’s fell to 89k from 114k. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings on a year-on-year basis also came in above consensus of 3.7%, at 3.8%, leaving the Federal Reserve in a tight spot as higher wage growth could leave inflation stickier than expected.Even so, the odds of a 50bps rate cut has now jumped to 47%&nbsp;from 43% yesterday. Equity and bond markets have had a rather mixed reaction, however. The S&amp;P opens roughtly flat at 0.2%, while the 10Y yield has remained unmoved at 3.73%. Both GBP/USD and gold have also returned to their pre-jobs report levels of $1.3181 and $2,540, respetively, having spiked earlier.Newspage asked economists, analysts, and experts for the views on the potential of a US recession, what this means for gold, and what it could spell for the US dollar.<figure class="image"><img src="https://cdn.newspage.media/production/company/11483/files/cfa8c5fa95bc53ad42b67de4cefc9d7c8067969fe820140f45a0fe16abe072f613f9494f7d061d6975ec2016f1108498ca20f6be6291232424096c5968e33e89.webp"></figure>

US Fed could cut 50bps after latest job numbers

In another shot in the foot for the UK stock market, Financial Times are <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/64cd3caf-c36a-4e51-8e19-d430f3324d77?desktop=true&amp;segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a#myft:notification:instant-email:content">reporting</a> that the Labour government has abandoned the proposal for a British Stocks &amp; Shares ISA, which was previously touted under the Conservative government earlier this year. The Tory government had proposed that to extend the current allowance of £20,000 a year to £25,000, with an extra £5,000 allowance for UK-listed equities only.This was done to encourage further investment into the London Stock Exchange which has been seeing an increasing amount of outflows from equity funds, stocks getting delisted, and acquisitions from private equity. The latest <a href="https://www.calastone.com/insights/market-turbulence-knocked-confidence-in-august-but-equity-fund-investors-bought-the-dip/#_ftn2">data</a> from Calastone showed that investors continue to pour out of UK equity funds for a 39th consecutive month. However, AJ Bell CEO Michael Summersgill welcomed the decision to drop the plans. According to the FT, Summersgill stated, “The UK ISA was a political gimmick that was doomed to fail in its objective of boosting investment in UK PLC."Newspage asked analysts, economists, and experts for their views on whether this was the right decision, whether they agree with brokerage platforms, other ways the government could encourage more UK investment.&nbsp;<figure class="image"><img src="https://cdn.newspage.media/production/company/11483/files/c48b3397107bdf065d6131826621dfe19a6954155c4a7cb987b16591cead50b341afb20d3aec84beb1c7bd97e124e5ddc6fb4ed68277dde936dc2f2a0ef56fcc.webp"></figure>

Labour government abandons British ISA

Rightmove shares are up 20% today on the back of a <a href="https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/rightmove_plc/news/html_rns_announcements/story/w0zg18r">statement</a> released by REA Group stating its intent to bid for the property listing website. The group believes the synergies between its current business and Rightmove's will be a “transformational opportunity".Jessica Pok, analyst at Peel Hunt, says falling interest rates could support the housing market, which would mean more business for Rightmove:"It does not come as a surprise to us today that Rightmove has become an acquisition target, given the rating has been subdued for some time due to the negative sentiment on the UK housing market and concerns over competitive threats from CoStar/OnTheMarket.However, our belief, reflected by the takeover interest, is that the shares look attractive, given the stability of its core classifieds business and the growth opportunities in other revenue streams such as Mortgages, Commercial RE and Rental under the new CEO. On top of that, with declining rates, we believe the UK property market has scope for improvement as we move into 2025.Pok has a price target for Rightmove of 630p, which was a healthy premium on last week’s levels around 550p – before this morning’s jump higher."Newspage asked analysts, brokers, and experts for their views of what this means for the future of the property market, Rightmove stock, and the UK stock market.

Potential Rightmove takeover "indicates investor enthusiasm" for UK market

<a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/bulletins/retailsales/july2024">Retail sales</a> in July rebounded after a wet June and election uncertainty caused consumers to pull back on spending. Retailers will be delighted as spending volumes are up 0.5% on last month. On a year-on-year basis, volumes are also up 1.4%. This marks the second-strongest month of annualised growth over the past 12 months, thereby showing that the cost-of-living crisis could be turning a corner.Core retail sales (ex. fuel) had a decent showing, growing 0.7% from June, and 1.4% from the same time last year. This comes on the back of increased spending in areas such as department stores as well as other non-food stores. However, spending in discretionary areas such as clothing and footwear, as well as household items fail to lift off and may be a concern.Nonetheless, both consumer and business confidence data have been showing increasing signs of optimism in recent months. As such, there might be a hint of optimism that August’s retail sales print may be more reflective of the windfall that many retailers have been clamouring for after a slow summer.Newspage asked experts for their views, below.<figure class="image"><img src="https://cdn.newspage.media/production/company/11483/files/d9db770ef5a426f148d0a4d2c3363d114fea85fdfa6727df7e5ab45265156489b10c32abe0cbdabe75f4721c0d99e5db418bbe278df194f1bfe0e1b091301298.webp"></figure><figure class="image"><img></figure>

Cost-of-living crisis turns a corner as retail sales rebound

After a rout earlier this month that saw global markets crash, including the FTSE 100, which plunged 4.3%, markets have rebounded since. Britain's benchmark index is now only approximately 1% off its all-time high after positive UK and US macro data. Key inflation metrics have been falling while both economies continue to flex their muscles.This morning, UK GDP continued to grow strongly, recording 0.6% of growth in Q2 and could be end up being the G7's strongest economy by the end of the year if the current rate of growth continues. Meanwhile, US retail spending smashed estimates. Economists alike were only expecting July's retail sales to rise by a mere 0.3%, but were pleasantly surprised with a 1% print instead.Stock markets have reacted favouralby on that note, and now have the potential to rebound to their all-time highs, especially the FTSE. However, risks remain as the Bank of Japan's monetary policy could still present a spanner in the works, as any further hikes to the Bank Rate in Japan could trigger another sell-off.Newspage asked experts for their views, below.

"It's great to see the forgotten FTSE is a hair's breadth from all-time highs once again"

The <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/latest">UK economy</a> grew by 0.6% in Q2, as it continues to rebound from a recession in late 2024, and a strong Q1 print earlier this year. As a result, the economy grew 0.9% since this time last year, and the most in seven quarters. However, on a month-on-month basis, the economy stalled in June, flatlining at 0% growth, as compared to 0.4% in May.Taking the latest two quarters of GDP growth into account and annualising them would put the UK on top of the charts as the G7’s fastest-growing economy this year (2.6%), even beating the <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/">IMF’s forecast</a> for the US economy to grow by 2.6%. Considering that the UK economy had only been forecast to grow by 0.7% this year according to the IMF, it’s safe to say that Britain’s economy is extremely resilient.The fly in the ointment, however, is that this now gives the Monetary Policy Committee less of an incentive to cut interest rates, as the economy is doing &nbsp;well in a restrictive rate environment. The Bank of England had forecast GDP growth in Q2 to rise by 0.7% after all, which could mean that committee members are less likely to deviate away from their currently implied rate path, which is to cut rates slowly but surely.Newspage asked experts for their views, below. Accompanying visual also below.<figure class="image"><img src="https://cdn.newspage.media/production/company/11483/files/7724ffb84901d0d7d018a006e99205234a286b5d17839915939f873b245211263f270e7d23b8f5a1e1c7f3446e008c0a634c53e11f6f5861fec6aa3c4487e748.webp"></figure>

GDP growth could see UK being strongest G7 economy in 2024 "but comes with a twist"

The <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/latest">Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI)</a> came in at 2.2% in July, back above the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% inflation target. However, it’s worth highlighting that this was expected by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), as the effects of lower energy prices are no longer helping to keep the overall inflation rate down.The positive news, however, is that the stickier elements of inflation continue to fall, albeit at a slow pace. Core inflation fell to 3.3% from 3.5%, and in line with consensus estimates. But more crucially, services inflation dropped to 5.2% from 5.7%, below the BoE’s forecast of 5.6%. As a result, despite headline inflation rising again, it came in below consensus estimates of 2.3% and the BoE’s projection of 2.5%.Most notably, the more susceptible parts of services inflation in hotels and restaurants continued to see their inflation rates trend downwards. And with wage growth also cooling after yesterday’s data, the outlook for services CPI looks increasingly promising.A list of responses from financial experts can be found below.<figure class="image"><img src="https://cdn.newspage.media/production/company/11483/files/189cde69ab68c6189669be84ab244d7d1249ecd5e0f795b04bb719cba0627c77b8c8702894d29851c0f0b905e0a550d3ec7553c7b0efdeb012582da88554688f.webp"></figure>

Inflation rises again, but silver lining lies in services inflation

<a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/august2024">Wage growth</a> cooled at its fastest pace since&nbsp;2021. Total pay growth witnessed its slowest growth in almost&nbsp;3 years, to&nbsp;4.5% from 5.7%. Be that as it may, however, wage growth is still a long way away from levels that are consistent with 2% headline inflation. The less volatile regular earnings growth metric only slowed to&nbsp;5.4% in the 3 months to June from 5.8% in May, above the Bank of England’s forecast of 5.2%, and significantly short of consensus of 4.6%.The cooling of wage growth comes in line with the PAYE flash estimates disclosed in last month’s labour report, as wages were forecasted to drop on a month-on-month basis. That said, the labour market isn’t cooling as much as markets had been anticipating. The unemployment rate actually dropped to&nbsp;4.2% from 4.4%, while the rate of decline in the number of vacancies slowed to&nbsp;0.5% on a month-on-month basis, below the 12-month average of 1.3% per month.Nonetheless, considering the strong relationship between wage growth and services inflation historically, this still bodes well for the latter. This is especially true given that services inflation is a key metric the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) scrutinises when deciding whether to cut rates.A list of responses from industry experts can be found below.<figure class="image"><img src="https://cdn.newspage.media/production/company/11483/files/94e50fcbcde5f345726e6fe9a21613cb47fe1a5782f62592d0585c85dffea1a549770ca82e3cf2a398a3ad78762f10c04bbf5bf744bb11f37b198a4c6c77158b.webp"></figure>

Wage growth cools but still behind inflation curve

NatWest and HSBC have confirmed increases to their Product Transfer (Loyalty) fixed rates (which take effect from Wednesday 8th May), making it more expensive for their existing borowers who want to stay with their lender, or maybe have no choice and will see their payments increase.Newspage mortgage brokers were asked for their views on these announcements.&nbsp;<figure class="image"><img src="https://cdn.newspage.media/production/company/10990/files/4c8185a7e85b88fc606d70d529109e59d4a9a3df36f98774577954d1ceea5a82168d9d1b585027ee560d739f4a819ee2effc47429e28436a62eb8973312e1a70.webp"></figure>NatWest :<figure class="image"><img src="https://cdn.newspage.media/production/company/10990/files/61a4cf6b65811c278780182a1c85b039e529a00cd67972899735851b8a8647f2b99359e390fde0ec8c97903dc941e8eedc5999a7b1953807a4bdf1431b33e8e5.webp"></figure>

"Loyalty has lost its sparkle" as NatWest and HSBC increase Product Transfer fixed rates

Barclays has just announced a reduction to its Fixed Rate purchase deals, with some rates up to 0.39% cheaper at the higher Loan to Value pricing.Newspage asked mortgage brokers for their thoughts on this announcement from Barclays, and whether other lenders will follow suit. This was a common strategy early in January as lenders moved purchase and remortgage rates in different directions.<figure class="image"><img src="https://cdn.newspage.media/production/company/10990/files/7b4dde01df444e8547f501066c3f97c38003d7ded365e5f60e7f0e0faff1ef8bc41155ffd7e031d073357da7bd6ea285b9ca4fbff8a3440fe19870371ac5a2b3.webp"></figure>

Barclays reduces fixed rates on purchases in a"refreshing departure from the recent trend"

Fintech lender, Gen H, has just announced that it is launching a handful of rate reductions up to 7 bps across its with-fee products. Fee-free product rates are unchanged. The lender is also introducing a £1,499 fee for 2- and 5-year 80% LTV products for both its standard and homebuying bundle ranges. These new rates start at 4.99%. The new rates will go live from 5:30 pm this evening, Monday, 4 March 2024. Newspage asked brokers for their views, below.&nbsp;

Gen H cuts rates in "a glimmer of light for borrowers"

UK house prices <a href="https://www.nationwidehousepriceindex.co.uk/reports/annual-house-price-growth-returns-to-positive-territory-for-first-time-in-over-a-year-in-february">rose by 0.7% in February</a>, after taking account of seasonal effects. This resulted in an improvement in the annual rate of house price growth to 1.2% in February, from -0.2% the previous month. House prices are now around 3% below the all-time highs recorded in the summer of 2022, after taking account of seasonal effects. Newspage asked experts for their views, below.

UK house prices rose by 0.7% in February, says Nationwide

The Chancellor has apparently scrapped plans for a 99% mortgage after resistance from the banking community, according to Government insiders, it has been reported. Newspage asked brokers for their views, which can be found below.

Plans for 99% mortgages apparently scrapped - reaction from brokers

Santander has just announced it is increasing all residential and Buy to Let fixed rates in the new business range from tomorrow, Wednesday 21 February — by up to 0.34%. This includes New Build and large loan exclusives for residential clients. It is also increasing selected residential and Buy to Let fixed rates in the product transfer range. There will be no change to tracker rates. Changes in screengrab, below. Newspage asked brokers for their views, bottom.<img src="https://cdn.newspage.media/production/company/43/files/ea367e21fc7028f80545c72325e547f2712f87b9a8840d44edeaddb437a6dc46c7382296d30501e43d05e8c9bcb4d5b3d4be240fbaf3ba9e8d383f14b960afa1.webp">.

Santander increases fixed rates

Following Santander yesterday, Coventry is the latest lender to announce&nbsp;it is increasing mortgage rates (see screengrab, below). Newspage asked brokers for their thoughts, bottom.<img src="https://cdn.newspage.media/production/company/43/files/8a33cdb3d743a917f6b301149749ae581618172ff1fe06369c246cb09356210127686cccbc8e7ce881c6f6ccec702d6a81095f5bef019c263769ac5eb3e6ccc0.webp">

"Rate euphoria of 2024 was short-lived" as Coventry increases rates

Over the past 2-3 weeks, more and more lenders, such as Santander yesterday, have been hiking rates. Newspage asked brokers if this has impacted demand. One, Gary Bush, said “many buyers have yet to latch onto the rate bounce”, while another, Richard Jennings, said: “Our clients say the recent rises in mortgage rates have actually been their call to action over fears they may continue to rise.” Meanwhile, broker Michelle Lawson said: “January saw joy, February fluctuations and, based on the current trajectory, madness will define the mortgage market in March.” Mirroring this, broker Bob Singh commented: “Lenders raising rates has started to undermine sentiment in the property market. Prospective buyers are starting to batten down the hatches again.” The views of a selection of brokers from around the UK are below.

"Lenders raising rates has started to undermine sentiment in the property market"

TSB has just announced increases to their Homebuyer range of mortgage products and some remortgage deals, up by 0.30% depending on the product. Newspage asked brokers for their views on this repricing, how it fits with &nbsp;current market conditions and whether it will slow down the recent uplift in mortgage activity? Their views are below.<figure class="image"><img src="https://cdn.newspage.media/production/company/10990/files/884053ac768229d719d46278e33bfc413a32281e0b26acb3625faabd1dbf5a91c3daa19fe5e2c5f6365eef508f4ac75413a4e4553e17b2b5ec3434010ae3b6d4.webp"></figure>

TSB increases residential rates by up to 0.30%

The Halifax has this morning published its December house price index. Newspage sought reaction from a number of property experts, below.

Halifax December 23 House Price Index - reaction

<ul><li>Are lenders genuinely trying to help borrowers with low LTV products by reducing mortgage rates, or are they just trying to generate positive publicity during a slowing market?</li><li>Is the timing of these rate cuts, right before the Christmas Period, a deliberate attempt to capitalize on borrowers' financial stress during this time of year?</li><li>Should borrowers be cautious of these mortgage rate cuts, considering that they may be masking underlying market issues?</li><li>Mortgage Rate Cuts for Low LTV Products: A Sign of a Slowing Market or a PR Gambit?</li><li>Are lenders genuinely looking to capitalise on market share by lowering rates for clients with bigger deposits - and why not look at lowering rates at higher LTV products, based on recent Nationwide and Halifax house price index, showing increases in property valuations?&nbsp;</li></ul>

Lenders Lowering Mortgage Rates for Low LTV Products: A Genuine Offer or a Marketing Ploy?

After a sea of red was seen yesterday amongst FTSE 100 constituents, Britain's main index opened comfortably in the green this morning. This comes on the back of better-than-expected BRC retail sales data, lower food inflation, and positive US markets on Monday.According to BRC, retail sales in the month of September came in at a decent 2.8%, better than the 2.0% forecast. While the figure did slow from August's 4.8%, it's worth noting that BRC's retail sales data isn't inflation-adjusted. As such, the impact of the cost-of-living and high inflation means volume growth remains negative with higher prices propping the overall index up.As expected, big-ticket items such as furniture and electrical continued to weaken, while apparel had a surprisingly weak showing at this time of the year due to the unusually warm weather bogging down demand for autumn clothing. In turn, this turned online sales negative, with the exception of health, beauty, and jewellery.On the other hand, food and drink sales saw positive momentum as it did in August. Consequently, food sales grew 7.4% on-year over the three months to September, with non-food sales going the other way, shrinking 1.2%.Nonetheless, BRC Chief Executive, Helen Dickinson is optimistic about the near term, shrugging off potential deflation fears by stating, “With sales volumes down, growth has been artificially boosted by high inflation over the last two years. As inflation eases, so too will longer-term sales growth prospects”.John Choong, Senior Equity Research Analyst at <a href="https://investingreviews.co.uk/">InvestingReviews</a> said: “The commentary provided by Dickinson on volumes returning serves as an encouraging point as it means that retailers' top and bottom lines should continue to grow moving forward. &nbsp;And with real wages now trending positive, this remains a strong possibility. As such, it's no surprise to see food retail stocks buoyant today as investors continue to shrug off deflation concerns."&nbsp;Meanwhile, Kantar's latest grocery report also gave investors reasons to celebrate. Food inflation continued to fall in the four weeks to 1 October, cooling to 11% — the lowest figure since July 2022. Kantar's Strategic Insight Director, Tom Steel said, “For the first time since last year, the prices of some staple foods are now dropping and that’s helping to bring down the wider inflation rate".These are certainly encouraging points worth celebrating. However, investors alike ought to be equally cautious about a potential surprise to oil prices in September's CPI inflation print undermining the progress being made on mortgage rates.Justin Moy, Managing Director at <a href="https://www.ehfmortgages.co.uk/">EHF Mortgages</a> commented: “There are significant positives within these figures, especially the fall in food prices that have taken time to get under control. However, the cost of fuel is increasing steadily, and world atrocities will unfortunately heap pressure on oil outputs, which will influence inflation too."Bob Singh, Founder of <a href="https://www.chessmortgages.co.uk/">Chess Mortgages</a> also shared the same sentiment: “A spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down! Some occasional good news helps the economy to remain positive about the outlook. Retail and food inflation figures have definitely set the mood for the markets as we look forward to the Bank of England's rate decision. There is a good chance that inflation will fall. However, the latest conflict in Israel could lead to a slight rise in inflation due to escalating oil prices, putting to an end the rate drops we’ve seen of late.”Even so, the positive news comes as a bit of a double-edged sword with Stephen Perkins, Managing Director at <a href="https://www.ybmortgages.co.uk/">Yellow Brick Mortgages</a> stating: “Positive news for the economy but it could lean the Bank of England towards another small base rate rise.”Then there's the core reason why markets are up today — US Federal Reserve commentary. Two officials hinted that interest rates may have peaked, with the Fed's vice-chair even going as far as to say that the committee needs to ‘proceed carefully’. Consequently, the odds of another rate hike at the Fed's next meeting have now been slashed to just 12.5%. Therefore, markets are hoping that the Bank of England could take up a similar position.Wes Wilkes, NTWRK CEO of <a href="https://www.net-worthntwrk.com/">Net-Worth NTWRK</a> gave his insight on this by saying: “The FTSE is rather indicative of a more 'risk-on' move in US Equities yesterday following dovish-leaning Fed rhetoric which acknowledged the impact of higher Treasury yields on financial conditions. This led to a more buoyant APAC session after their long weekend and the retail sales data this morning added to the good news. Still, it's important to continue to tread with caution as central banks, particularly the Bank of England are now navigating the most difficult part of the cliff-edge journey as they attempt to avoid recession whilst attempting to keep the screw turned on inflation.”On that point, Graham Cox, Founder of <a href="https://www.selfemployedmortgagehub.com/">Self Employed Mortgage Hub</a> is expecting a sooner-than-expected rate cut: “Inflation could drop like a stone over the next six months, faster I suspect, than many analysts are predicting. I think there's a general underestimation of just how much disposable income is being reduced by surging mortgage and rent payments, and how much that will affect the high street. I think it's extremely unlikely the Bank of England will hold the base rate at 5.25% beyond Q1 next year. My best guess is they'll be forced to cut early to stave off recession and this time next year the base rate will be around 4 per cent.”Because of the prospects of decreasing affordability, David Robinson, Co-Founder of <a href="https://www.wildcatlaw.co.uk/">Wildcat Law</a> expressed his caution too: “Beware the looming spectre of defaults. Like any addiction, the nation's addiction to low-interest-rate credit will take time to work out of the system. This is being seen from a personal level with households across the country facing steep rises in their mortgage payments, through to an institutional one, with the recent stories about Metro Bank. It is likely that whilst the inflationary pressures are receding regarding interest rates the true effects have yet to be felt. A bit like the Tsunami after the earthquake, the real problems are only just beginning to surface. Many businesses and individuals are still benefiting from very low interest rate debt, once this needs to be financed they will be facing some very tough decisions. Unless a way can be found to ween these borrowers off low rates gradually, many will simply be unable to cope.”

Sea of Green on Tuesday Morning as FTSE 100 Rebounds

FTSE 100 housebuilders edged into the green this morning despite house prices declining according to the latest Halifax house price data. According to the nation's largest mortgage provider, the average house price dropped another c.£1,200 last month to £278,601. On an annualised basis, prices fell 4.7%, although this is still £39,400 higher than pre-pandemic levels.As such, investors alike have taken the latest data rather positively. That's because just like Nationwide's data on Monday, Halifax's drop came in better than consensus estimates on a monthly (0.4% vs 0.8%) and annualised (4.7% vs 5.0%) basis.While house prices continue to drop though, fears of a much worse market have been alleviated for the time being. And with mortgage rates coming down and affordability recovering, John Choong, Senior Equity Research Analyst at <a href="https://investingreviews.co.uk/">InvestingReviews</a> said: "This week's housing market data leaves some room for optimism as both prints came in better than expected despite their falls. Although mortgage approvals from August will dampen sentiment about a potential recovery, a bottom could very well be in as the gap between incomes and house prices begins to tighten. More encouragingly, major lenders are also now offering sub-5% rates for an increasing amount of mortgages.Even though higher oil prices could see September's CPI inflation surprise to the upside, it could be a one-off given oil prices have now fallen to approximately $84 per barrel this week after OPEC+ opted to stop cutting production for the time being. This should see swap rates and subsequently, mortgage rates come down even more in the coming months.Still, a sharp rebound remains out of the question in the near term as rates remain restrictively high versus their recent historical averages. But over the long term, the fundamentals look good for housebuilder shares."Echoing that sentiment is Justin Moy, Managing Director at <a href="https://www.ehfmortgages.co.uk/">EHF Mortgages</a>. He said:“Mortgage Lenders are still offering low deposit mortgages, and many have improved their affordability calculations in the last few weeks. Housebuilders such as Persimmon will benefit most, given they can tweak the pricing on plots and change the mix of properties built to accommodate more affordable housing options, particularly for first-time buyers.” As such, it's no surprise to see Persimmon being the biggest gainer among its FTSE 100 housebuilder peers today.That said, Moy is still cautious about a potential rebound happening so soon, stating:"A combination of factors has certainly helped slow down the decline of property values across the UK. But with the usual time lag on land registry data, it's hard to say we are over the worst just yet. A rebound feels like a year away at least".Still, there are signs of life in the market, according to Gary Bush, Financial Adviser at <a href="https://www.mortgageshop.com/">MortgageShop.com</a>, who also added his opinion on what housebuilders need to focus on in order to fill their order books more effectively: "We are still seeing good demand for property purchases, with numerous house-hunters all bidding up prices on the same property, and with the UK mortgage lender price war still in action this will inevitably continue fuelling this uptick.&nbsp;Nonetheless, our personal opinion is that UK housebuilders need to focus on providing good value for money for their sold units — nearly all purchasers of new properties we subsequently speak to a few years later, when renegotiating mortgage rates, speak of feelings that they paid to much for their property when they purchased it. Should there really be a clear and large difference between the price of newly built properties and preowned properties in the UK - surely the idea of building more homes is to deal with the growing need for more homes, not to attempt to push values even higher for new stock."

FTSE 100 Housebuilders Spring into the Green Despite House Prices Declining

After an unflattering performance yesterday, the FTSE 100 has essentially dropped back to 7,500 points — where it started the year. Nonetheless, it's not entirely gloomy this morning. According to the latest British Retail Consortium-NielsenIQ tracker, shop price inflation continues to drop and has hit a year low at 6.2%.Food inflation fell to 9.9% while non-food inflation eased to 4.4%. More encouragingly, food prices actually fell 0.1% on a month-on-month basis as price cuts seem to be what retailers are competing for now. According to Helen Dickinson, CEO of the British Retail Consortium, “Customers who bought dairy, margarine, fish and vegetables — all typically own-brand lines — will have found lower prices compared to last month”.Although shoppers alike will celebrate the news that inflation continues to fall, retailers might have to be worried if the current trend continues. After all, JPMorgan released a note a number of weeks ago, warning that a potential deflationary environment could erode the top and bottom lines of retailers.That said, John Choong, Senior Equity Research Analyst at <a href="https://investingreviews.co.uk/">InvestingReviews</a> said:“JPMorgan's pessimism isn't unfounded as retailers continue to try to outdo each other with price cuts. However, we hold a more optimistic view that positive real wages should spark a return to discretionary spending and limit trading down to lower-margin products. And if Marks and Spencer's stellar performance so far is anything to go by, this should be sufficient to offset the decline in prices.”On the other side of the aisle, boohoo has been left crying with its shares deep in the red this morning after it reported a disappointing set of interim results.H1 sales fell off a cliff and were 17% lower compared to last year at £729.1m from £882.4m. Its pre-tax profit wasn't any better either as it lost £9.1m, compared to the £6.2m profit it had last year. The guidance wasn't particularly bright either with FY24 revenues now projected to decline by 12-17%, as the retailer targets more profitable sales within its own labels.However, not all is lost as adjusted EBITDA margins are now expected to come in between 4-4.5% — in line with prior guidance. This is thanks to the company's strong progress in gross margin and cost controls. The former strengthened in the half as the board targeted more profitable sales in its labels. Alongside this, the firm identified more than £125m of annualised cost savings due to stock reductions and a better supply chain.On the results, Choong commented:“boohoo's results don't make for pretty viewing, especially when the stock is almost down 95% from its all-time high in 2021. But those who bought in at that point should've been aware that the shares were tremendously overpriced. However, that doesn't seem to be the case today as Mike Ashley has continued to load up on his position in the e-commerce retailer.There are also a number of encouraging signs that the market seems to have ignored. While management's move to target better margins will certainly instil short-term pain as evidenced in its latest results, inventory reductions and the shoring up of its supply chain are all positive moves. And although the turnaround will take slightly longer than previously anticipated, investors who can see through the current pain could reap the potentially lucrative rewards lying ahead. With discretionary spending taking a turn for the better, the medium-to-long term looks a little brighter for the industry."

FTSE 100 Rises as Shop Price Inflation Falls but boohoo Investors Cry as Stock Drops 12%

The FTSE 100 slipped up after an encouraging start in the early AM. &nbsp;The index is now down in the red along with its housebuilding constituents despite ‘encouraging’ house price data from Nationwide this morning.Although house prices still declined 5.3% on an annualised basis, there was some encouragement to be found in the fact that the drop was better than expected. House prices remained relatively stagnant from August as markets had initially forecast a drop of 5.7% on an annualised basis.John Choong, Senior Equity Research Analyst at <a href="https://investingreviews.co.uk/">InvestingReviews</a> commented: “The impact of lower mortgage rates may be starting to take effect as green shoots begin to appear. What's more, a return of buying volumes with autumn approaching should help to provide some support to any further retrenchment in property prices going into the winter. This would especially be the case if mortgage rates continue to decline as they have over the past few weeks.With real wages now trending above inflation as well, there's reason to believe that house prices could find a bottom soon as affordability returns from declining mortgage rates and house prices.Nonetheless, investors and lenders alike ought to be wary of further surprises to inflation. Although August's cooler-than-expected CPI print was a welcome surprise, the recent upticks in oil prices may present a number of unwelcoming shocks in the months to come, which could undermine the progress that's been made on the rate front.”Despite the less gloomy data, potential investors should be aware that those earning an average income and wanting to purchase a first-time home with an 80% LTV would have to spend 38% of their post-tax pay on their mortgage — above the long-run average of 29%. Nonetheless, the one bit of encouragement is that this is down from 40% in August.Still, swap rates have been steadily declining since August as markets anticipate that the bank rate has, or is at least close to peaking. Although rates aren't expected to return to their pre-pandemic levels in the medium term, strong wage growth with lower house prices should help to offset this ever so slightly.Simon Bridgland, Broker/ Director at <a href="https://www.releasefreedom.co.uk/">Release Freedom</a> said: “I think house prices will stay on their current trajectory for the remainder of the year assuming inflation data remains in a constant albeit slow decline. If they tinker upwards with the base rate, I can see more properties coming on in January as the bills start to bite in people's pockets. I think if this happens, it will be short-lived and we will see things stabilise with the base rate reducing further and calm starting to return.”However, Graham Cox, Founder of <a href="https://www.selfemployedmortgagehub.com/">Self Employed Mortgage Hub</a> isn't as optimistic: “Unchanged month-on-month property prices is surprising news from Nationwide, given the steep falls recorded in August. Nevertheless, it's highly likely house prices will continue to fall, as the nation's homeowners continue to transition from dirt-cheap mortgages to 'normal' rates.”In reaction to this, Taylor Wimpey, Persimmon, and Barratt are all in the red, but Berkeley is the biggest loser amongst the ‘big five’ as house prices in the South West, where Berkeley builds a substantial number of its properties, declined by 6.3%. On the flip side, Bellway is the standout performer being the only housebuilder stock to be in the green. This is due to the improvement of house prices in the North, where most of its private completions are. The region was the strongest performing, as the annual rate of change improved to -2.0% from -3.3%.In other news, broker Peel Hunt said that it saw “encouraging signs of recovery” in financial markets in the first half of the year, despite rising interest rates, slow economic growth, and high inflation.As a result, the investment bank now expects its interim results to show a 3.2% increase in revenue to £42.4m. Investors were informed, "Whilst the exact timing of recovery cannot be predicted, there are encouraging signs that interest rate rises are bringing inflation under control, and we may be nearing the end of the current tightening cycle," investors were told.Stephen Perkins, Managing Director at <a href="https://www.ybmortgages.co.uk/">Yellow Brick Mortgages</a> gave his thoughts on this saying, “It is always positive to see the markets doing well, as this is a true indicator of economic confidence in the short-term future”. His opinion was echoed by Gary Bush, Financial Adviser at <a href="https://www.mortgageshop.com/">MortgageShop.com</a>, who said, “The positive FTSE news is good to see but expected, it's clear that the UK has weathered this additional storm quite well — we just need to see a period without lockdowns, war, and interest rate chaos. The future looks bright.”That said, David Robinson, Co-Founder at <a href="https://www.wildcatlaw.co.uk/">Wildcat Law</a> seems to think that markets will always move akin to a herd: “Contrarian investor. You will find this statement in many fund houses and fund managers' marketing material, yet the truth is the city as a whole is a herd animal. With interest rate rises looking likely to be nearing an end many of their models will be triggering buying cycles. This may be a false dawn but there is definitely a more positive feel overall in the markets and a number of UK businesses in particular look good value. That is also combined with greater political security currently — Sunak is perceived as a safe pair of hands and Starmer is not causing any sleepless nights either.”Either way, where Britain's premier index heads next will ultimately come down to a combination of geopolitical stability, the inflation outlook, and the UK economy. But with the FTSE 100 trading at its biggest discount in over a decade, there's certainly room for potential share appreciation in the medium term.

FTSE 100 Slips Up Despite 'Encouraging' House Price Data

<h4>2- and 5-year swap rates, which determine mortgage pricing, headed south throughout Wednesday and Thursday morning after the dire PMI data, a respected indicator of where the economy is headed next.</h4>On Wednesday morning, the composite PMI dropped to 47.9, marking its lowest level in over two and a half years, while the services PMI hit a 7-month low and the manufacturing PMI a 39-month low.&nbsp;Throughout Wednesday, the 2-year SWAP fell to 5.489%, down from 5.668% on Tuesday, while the 5-year SWAP dropped below 5% to 4.824%, from 5.017% on Tuesday. The trend continued on Thursday morning, with the 2-year SWAP falling further to 5.449% and the 5-year SWAP to 4.778%.Mortgage brokers said the bad economic news, with growing fears of a recession, could result in a more doveish stance from the Bank of England, which could translate into good news for mortgage borrowers and the property market.Lewis&nbsp;Shaw, founder of &nbsp;<a href="https://u22810944.ct.sendgrid.net/ls/click?upn=71R-2Bb-2FEpVrp-2B3T5uznVFwiekDBYB7f8QhR6stsh84K4R4Q89ANVy4O3VRpZOp7vUyUhr_TCBZcDrRqF4dST4uMwf0BTrc2jxvAz297ZMCXgf9UL-2BMtwrVriBi54wRWt78UcnbUr6u0pvqcoSfOlQ3sB8mc-2BH-2FQKEGkVXEQNE7u5AH4pEzjybsYgTNT1V7VKr9J6RBEUGSgEl1t5WUBbub5hHOv9fuWmfPX4Op5jyC8bcS0t09Z1urz7dZX6lr8BnauVfViveQbg4pkac7A555IozQtg-3D-3D">Shaw&nbsp;Financial Services</a>, said: "Though Wednesday's PMI data gave a dire outlook for the economy as a whole, it could ironically spell good news for mortgage holders. Throughout Wednesday and on Thursday morning, SWAP rates came down, which could translate into further mortgage rate reductions in the coming weeks."Darryl Dhoffer, founder of &nbsp;<a href="https://themortgageexpertgroup.co.uk/">The Mortgage Expert</a>, agreed: "The grim PMI data released on Wednesday morning will give food for thought to all those on the Monetary Policy Committee. A further rate rise of 0.25% in September still looks likely, but future rises look harder to justify given the sheer number of headwinds now facing the economy. This could be the turning point we have all been hoping for in terms of mortgage rates, with further reductions possible in the days and weeks ahead."Much the same view was given by Justin Moy, founder of independent mortgage broker,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.ehfmortgages.co.uk/">EHF Mortgages</a>, although he suggested another base rate increase is still likely: “This is positive news for all people with mortgages and helps justify, and explain, the recent rate reductions across the mortgage market. 5-year SWAP rates have nudged below 5% for the first time in a while, but that's unlikely to prevent another base rate increase, as inflation still needs to be tackled."Riz Malik, director of mortgage broker,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.r3mortgages.com/">R3 Mortgages</a>, suggested we may now see the base rate come down sooner than expected, although it may prove too late for the under-pressure property market: “The growing number of economic setbacks we're now seeing might result in rates coming down sooner than expected in an attempt to boost economic activity. The question is whether these rate reductions will come quickly enough to rescue the disastrous year for the UK's property market. Its fate could have been sealed by then."Graham Cox, founder of the independent mortgage broker,&nbsp;the <a href="https://u7061146.ct.sendgrid.net/ls/click?upn=4tNED-2FM8iDZJQyQ53jATUSKGGmUtHtluspWVdATSbI7aXfNzjzbYBaN05Y2L-2FAF3e-2FXWgyHE9SjLIax8-2BVqo37sVpjCrhMKBIeDYkYsRuDyjRhPHA9VWHBwf6xtUQlGMObfF0J6N41t2X2DW0tHWwQ-2Fngfupi8yg2jDqIu7IxrM-2FAiUntv0bR4F7M3w2z-2FHlFElfZJJqc5bPGnAWC37rlkx3-2BIlXScDw39mGiK6XwjXJGS-2BQuwJloXqC77K-2FUQWcmgWw6oJy1-2FYjU8YUsLps3SQU9fn0f-2Fe5-2BzI7HvASBuuzsBNmzaAdWyRntdBESoNkPOEeIVyuTBOMAEModWhqSJuEMaukH8o3oALIsCccDcLkNeUOgNr8WtK8qPEHJ7DBWvZFaM4wxMqFJ44u9tIUSCpnDyUN-2Bd-2FmQAmFEbSujPpA7kPUZtTnqd-2BjCjM-2F6OpjFbQMAzpD2hvdMtEEioQ4XzbaqipF3E1Ar7faV0geUrhadmfBaosVI5Q7-2BQqNcsQc6bTiuK1uUAClB0odU0yf-2BsZ1mzrX8aNflkmG1a-2BcDBtVqEcS6FyeL1PoCPBdPHgjiDag_I-2BXlUsPfrnJydjcnE-2BgVzyaPs8UIg58cIp4dTSrRYL1p-2B6CdvcNcjIo8s7ljP4ZjYOgrOBwSDMTx2Q6gVNmRTxBcOhFBUv8U-2BtZn1ujlD5FlYsJW2haPGip7lr58V5X6gWZ2FpgTspVoeF-2BN-2B4dRxOGsQLaQvzwa5nHIaJmVp9NzV8khxVcJUxwbRnw-2BHSzqyZLsR0lCln2AOkWfDfxfkiQOMzHE0ex-2FqpjsZ9ti0Ji7FH9bnD50ZCvwDZ-2BWq2I0b6FNXOWN1aldj5wxG8dviK7PvqqAO335ESUFAHQ4VZC-2F-2B8KEtHEQudSR8p9buKUKsz9LkAC-2BjCMMkV9Qp-2FEAkNSU7cwPI4s-2FgSTwEaV85iI-3D">SelfEmployedMortgageHub.com</a>, cut straight to the chase: “Perversely, bad economic news is good news for mortgage rates at present, as the disappointing PMI figures illustrated very clearly yesterday. It's now less likely the Bank of England base rate will rise as much as previously feared.”Clive Read, owner at broker <a href="https://goldmanread.co.uk">Goldmanread</a>, was unequivocal in his assessment: "The pronounced fall in Wednesday's PMI is a clear sign that the Bank of England's rate rises are starting to have a significant impact on the real economy."Additional comments below. Publishers: if you use any, or all, of this content for publication, please credit Newspage® and link to <a href="https://newspage.media/">https://newspage.media</a>.

2- and 5-year SWAP rates head south after Wednesday's PMI shocker

<h4>TSB was this morning the latest lender to announce rate cuts. With 2- and 5-year SWAP rates also coming down over the past 24 hours, brokers welcomed the move by the TSB, albeit with caveats.</h4>The TSB announced, on Friday 25 August, "we’re reducing rates on:<ul><li>2 Year Fixed House Purchase and Remortgage, 0-75% LTV, by 0.10%</li><li>3 Year Fixed Remortgage, 0-75% LTV, by 0.10%</li></ul>Responding to the news, Darryl Dhoffer, founder of &nbsp;<a href="https://themortgageexpertgroup.co.uk/">The Mortgage Expert</a>, said: “These are hardly groundbreaking reductions, but they're reductions all the same.”Stephen Perkins, managing director at&nbsp;<a href="https://ybmortgages.co.uk/">Yellow Brick Mortgages</a>, agreed the news around both TSB and SWAP rates was positive but suggested the Bank of England could ruin the party yet: “More rate reductions from the TSB and, probably more crucially, the reductions in the 2- and 5-year SWAP rates are excellent news for borrowers. Let us enjoy it before the Bank of England once again stomps in to ruin the party.”Perkins' scepticism was echoed by Gary Bush of the Potters Bar-based&nbsp;<a href="https://www.mortgageshop.com/">MortgageShop.com</a>: “Hopefully the Bank of England will pause at the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting and take proper stock of inflation's trajectory, rather than singing to Rishi's hymn sheet over his foolish targets.”Meanwhile, Kirsty Wells, director of Saint Leonards-on-Sea-based&nbsp;<a href="https://blueprintmortgages.co.uk/">Blueprint Mortgages</a>, said every reduction counts but criticised lenders for being slow to pass on any cuts: “I really hope more lenders follow as I cringe every time I speak with a client and the most suitable option for them is a 2-year deal that is over 6%. Lenders are very quick to increase their rates but take a little while longer to pass on any reductions. A lot of customer deals are ending in the next few months and they are going to be worse off by, on average, £300 a month. So I would love to be able to offer clients a better option than what is already reserved for them.”Riz Malik, director of Southend-on-Sea-based independent mortgage broker,&nbsp;<a href="https://u7061146.ct.sendgrid.net/ls/click?upn=4tNED-2FM8iDZJQyQ53jATUSbEP0m7PSVRefyuA76XoLOSIaCA4-2FyWn9IaAxvKIyipUhY5_ifMe6XUf-2B5X1-2B-2BzVsZN6POSs9RMpWMFZrDgX-2FuHc738VcYbVx1p1nKil2hcjHgjFXsj-2BeWuRtqgVcsX-2BJMBJSfmOi-2F10MoWc1av84MPBIcFgCdiomNRTRPVsYZkrqpbACuv-2BQxTwF43hTXbCKsgmeiEBy-2FxYh9hm7s-2Beg7kNfpcmie75MNCjNze0aSCjfnX0I4h-2FiBVFvuwZFodR6KnXNW6AYvWqxJAcUk991vYAZRogqkOjgqVY2isHZUuQXNUzqaN4OONOsYMmPxpc8Yc8uLi6zv-2BC5DW6mTSfPtglGanXeii5PThQURPIHhx4AFF-2F8Wuq02X1LHpuUv8QbxHeiV877fbXBh3Hq5Blj2vlCNA-3D">R3 Mortgages</a>, suggested more reductions may soon follow after Wednesday's poor PMI data: “Following yesterday's disastrous PMI data, there will be more lenders repricing following market movements. The great mortgage rollback continues.”Additional comments below. Publishers: if you use any, or all, of this content for publication, please credit Newspage® and link to <a href="https://newspage.media/">https://newspage.media</a>.

TSB latest lender to announce rate cuts, as SWAPs edge down

According to UK Finance, more homeowners are having difficulty paying their mortgages. In Q2 of 2023, 81,900 mortgages were in arrears of 2.5% or more of the outstanding balance, a 7% increase from the previous three months.The last 12 months have been challenging for many households as they struggle to cope with factors beyond their control. Some have resorted to unsecured credit, while others are doing their best to keep up with their mortgage&nbsp;payments.Interested to hear feedback from mortgage brokers<ul><li>Are you seeing this as a common trend?</li><li>Do you feel clients are informed well enough of signposted help, from mortgage advice, debt advice, health/mental advice and lender helplines?</li><li>Do you see the remainder of 2023 and all of 2024, worsening arrears trends?</li></ul>

Homeowners having difficulty paying their mortgages 

<h4>In the Halifax <a href="https://www.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/july-2023-halifax-house-price-index.pdf">July house price index</a> published earlier, Kim Kinnaird, director of Halifax Mortgages, said “we’re seeing activity amongst first-time buyers hold up relatively well", but experts were divided about the level of demand and cautioned many aspiring homeowners are facing a Catch-22.</h4>Joe Garner, managing director of property consultants,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.justjoegarner.com/">Joe Garner Consulting</a>, explained: “For many first-time buyers, mortgage rates will need to drop significantly for them to achieve affordability criteria, however falling mortgage rates are likely to result in greater activity in the market, which will lead to house prices increasing. It's a Catch-22.”On the ground, brokers and property experts were divided about the level of demand from first-time buyers, with some reporting it's strong, while others saying they haven't seen a resurgence of first-time buyer activity yet.Lewis&nbsp;Shaw, founder of Mansfield-based&nbsp;<a href="https://u22810944.ct.sendgrid.net/ls/click?upn=71R-2Bb-2FEpVrp-2B3T5uznVFwiekDBYB7f8QhR6stsh84K4R4Q89ANVy4O3VRpZOp7vUyUhr_TCBZcDrRqF4dST4uMwf0BTrc2jxvAz297ZMCXgf9UL-2BMtwrVriBi54wRWt78UcnbUr6u0pvqcoSfOlQ3sB8mc-2BH-2FQKEGkVXEQNE7u5AH4pEzjybsYgTNT1V7VKr9J6RBEUGSgEl1t5WUBbub5hHOv9fuWmfPX4Op5jyC8bcS0t09Z1urz7dZX6lr8BnauVfViveQbg4pkac7A555IozQtg-3D-3D">Shaw&nbsp;Financial Services</a>, said demand among first-time buyers is not just holding up, but is firing on all cylinders: “We've seen more first-time buyers in the past two weeks than in the previous two months. This segment of the market is proving especially resilient. With the sell-off in the buy-to-let market in full swing, combined with an increase in more property for sale generally, aspiring homeowners can smell blood.”Kirsty Wells, director of Saint Leonards-on-Sea-based&nbsp;<a href="https://blueprintmortgages.co.uk/">Blueprint Mortgages</a>, delivered much the same verdict: "In the past few months, I have had a big increase in enquiries from first-time buyers. They are in a much stronger position currently as so many people have their properties on the market but can't sell so building a chain is very tricky, whereas if a first-time buyer can come along and save the day, then they can negotiate a better price".That view was shared by Lee Gathercole, co-founder at Peterborough-based mortgage broker, <a href="https://rebusfs.com">Rebus Financial Services</a>: “It certainly seems like a good time to buy when looking at the average value of property compared to last year. There is considerably less competition for buyers in the market and it was only a year ago that everyone was fighting for properties and paying over the asking price. Right now, first-time buyers are in a really strong position when it comes to negotiating on price.”And when they are negotiating, many first-time buyers are doing it with landlords, who are increasingly selling up for affordability and regulatory reasons. Elliott Culley, director at Hayling Island-based&nbsp;<a href="https://switchmf.co.uk/">Switch Mortgage Finance</a> said: "I have seen many first-time buyers purchasing properties being sold by landlords at reduced prices."Jamie Lennox, director at Norwich-based mortgage broker,&nbsp;<a href="https://dimoramortgages.co.uk/">Dimora Mortgages</a>, also noted the surge in enquiries from people aspiring to get onto the property ladder as prices come down: “For certain first-time buyers, current market conditions are playing out perfectly. Locally, we are seeing big reductions in asking prices compared to recent years and for those first-time buyers who can stomach and afford the higher interest rates, now is a great time to get onto the property ladder at a lower entry price. Also, buying while rates are as high as they are at present gives great reassurance to their future affordability, knowing they can handle periods of less favourable rates.”But not all brokers are seeing strong activity levels among first-time buyers, with one warning that lenders may be cautious at higher loan-to-values as house prices come under pressure.Stephen Perkins, managing director at Norwich-based&nbsp;<a href="https://ybmortgages.co.uk/">Yellow Brick Mortgages</a>, concluded: “We haven't seen a resurgence of first-time buyer activity yet. Also, as house prices fall, lenders will be less happy to provide high loan-to-value mortgages, so the good news that house prices are cheaper is being counteracted by the fact first-time buyers need bigger deposits. That being said, most first-time buyers will likely be waiting and saving and getting themselves ready to strike when the ideal buying conditions finally align for them. That may not be far off.”Additional comments available below. Publishers: if you use any, or all, of the content in this News Alert for publication, please credit Newspage® and link to <a href="https://newspage.media/">https://newspage.media</a>&nbsp;

Catch-22 for first-time buyers 

<h4>Financial advisers have warned that rising interest rates are resulting in millions of pounds in interest being lost in Zombie bank accounts.</h4>Zombie bank accounts are those neglected, obsolete or dormant accounts where the bank or building society offers exceptionally low rates, such as 0.1%.Previously, when rates were virtually zero, it wasn't an issue being stuck in a Zombie bank account as savers weren't really missing out on much interest.However, as rates have risen, people risk losing out on significant sums in interest due to their cash stagnating in Zombie accounts.Scott Gallacher, a chartered financial planner at Leicestershire-based independent financial advisers,&nbsp;<a href="https://rowleyturton.com/">Rowley Turton</a>, said: “Rising interest rates have resurrected the issue of Zombie bank accounts. It's alarming to see so many people stuck in neglected bank accounts earning mere pennies on their hard-earned money. I recently assisted a client with approximately £300,000 in stagnant accounts. By switching to better-performing options, we unlocked the potential for up to £18,000 extra in annual interest. Hopefully, the FCA's new Consumer Duty rules, which require financial firms to deliver good outcomes for their clients, will force the banks to change their ways. However, I'm not holding my breath, and savers need to be proactive and check their accounts and interest at least once a year to ensure they avoid the Zombie account trap.”Joshua Gerstler, a chartered financial planner at Borehamwood-based&nbsp;<a href="https://u22810944.ct.sendgrid.net/ls/click?upn=71R-2Bb-2FEpVrp-2B3T5uznVFwuaC9etrjY-2FLRPlOP5Rmw6I81DKjSq9nXZTW-2BSNR8mFwUegu_TCBZcDrRqF4dST4uMwf0BTrc2jxvAz297ZMCXgf9UL-2F-2Bgvub37bA0gUyKOXOKtDTsC8aZcTv0s7a6pFcU-2BYRqUsQEpg7NYzyg2RLtbJ1nteGBvmwaUZ9-2FITObut6C7HMtKlmMDhbE8oqJFp9Q3rnsY2kzP12hqBkAXyle5Fs70ahSc0qo6MUx95Klfg9e861BPGTAquo99APQ9J3bIvHFjRGoMy6-2Fh1l5Tc1Fnojovc-3D">The Orchard Practice</a>, also advised savers to be proactive amid the rising rate environment: “There's no doubt that, after all the rate rises of the past year or so, millions of pounds in interest is being lost by savers unnecessarily.” But he cautioned: “Having said that, we still recommend holding as little money as possible in bank accounts, as over the long term it is not a good place to leave your money.”Rob Heath, wealth director at the Newcastle-under-Lyme-based&nbsp;wealth manager,&nbsp;<a href="https://u7061146.ct.sendgrid.net/ls/click?upn=4tNED-2FM8iDZJQyQ53jATUfqe7SR7w-2BtaQxUhOShwp3IcGHTA5wOCJ9JdYVnJE8OJdqOr_bPJQ-2BOCb3aW1T83x2gM7vimlg84diUZW7iBFp87i3zReuRomU54V06-2F-2BxTIlgN70eXaOIC1GIJFES3S2QJVMvGT38QO-2B-2B8UflAr5cKfMkhUKr5QMObY5zAQMJizbA0mO2gvLYN1BLt3FaBxWud7Svn-2FaLxc0ipkG9mhNLq39KcLIdDoQD610fFHBK1xfVIBdDFxpMw-2FxlBfNk0p3-2BDDZVQwAFZlXPxu-2FNmzPNd6siqRkblWCfXF2uc7m91N1zjJfKnikJ4OkU4NX8uNge1BUQxNAJsmd0nyyvPZWWodX0RIVRiCBFsLoIcN0bAeus74qYoD42gO4ASeBDTJShNtACQ8CjT6DcMfgtEDe67rVVR8-3D">Net-Worth Ntwrk</a>, highlighted the financial opportunity of being proactive: “As interest rates have risen, our cash management solution has identified several of our existing clients and allowed them to optimise their cash holdings, unlock higher returns and explore new possibilities for cash, one to the tune of over £25,000 in interest over the past eight months alone. This would have otherwise sat in a ‘zombie’ account earning very little or no interest. This is a generational opportunity to earn a return on personal cash, yet still retain full control and access. It is unlikely that rates will remain high for a significant period, so it may be short-lived, but it's an opportunity that savers do not want to miss out on.”Publishers: if you use any, or all, of the content in this News Alert for publication, please credit Newspage® and link to <a href="https://newspage.media/">https://newspage.media</a>&nbsp;

"Millions of pounds in interest being lost" in Zombie accounts as rates rise

On Friday afternoon, <a href="https://www.themortgageworks.co.uk">The Mortgage Works</a> announced that, from Saturday 5 August, it would be reducing fixed rates across its new business range by up to 0.95%. You can see the full changes &gt;&gt; <a href="https://www.themortgageworks.co.uk/news/2023/august/rate-changes-04-08">here</a> &lt;&lt;.Daniel Clinton, Head of Specialist Lending at The Mortgage Works, said:&nbsp;“Following the rate reductions for our existing customers last week, we're continuing to demonstrate our commitment to landlords with significant rate reductions for new lending. As well as offering competitive rates that help landlords manage their cashflow, these reductions will help ease affordability pressures with some landlords being able to increase borrowing by 10%.”Brokers welcomed the move, with one, Lewis Shaw, owner of Mansfield-based <a href="https://shawfinancialservices.co.uk">Shaw Financial Services</a>, saying “it will be a welcome shot in the arm for landlords”, while another, Ben Tadd, director at Chippenham-based broker, <a href="https://lucramortgages.co.uk">Lucra Mortgages</a>, said the move “could signal a significant milestone in the start of rate reductions in the buy-to-let market”.Jamie Lennox, director at Norwich-based mortgage broker, <a href="https://u7061146.ct.sendgrid.net/ls/click?upn=4tNED-2FM8iDZJQyQ53jATUb2pC7z32yC2g2qZ-2BstBSSv-2B2Q5V8WI0efx0KjsGjK3TJdLG_Q6ukVbzobUvGlvMWHQFcJz0IzSBt-2BHBH-2F5RRwWnjrULmTKoIOGdYeLJxu0-2Fwu3kKvlvSHjcY4Q4Ve9I2No5l8Q61RGDxFI1oyY1rgakGCmPKdqgcuJkl1C5-2F787UlC0APuLARsXhQbYRM7OfZcaHefY1-2FLYVS9Jdeyiw5P6zcnr5KhClYNO2lnfwfD1zl5P1r9ALxnh4t39J-2Fy9nW-2BrdDT-2F4hc5GiLzKl-2BmPROsdwXkxT02LiUQtxpcoODJHrD6HRAoHFX-2BVlkkJLlQyeIeDahAz1D4LTSQBsq7f1sRv28V0gwCyfrrS-2Bezy-2FlXzxGuLVgDTQBJV5KCKs6TszTjTEt4IlbofuhGE2w8Bwfnprn0-3D">Dimora Mortgages</a>, suggested it may even see some landlords who were previously considering exiting the sector stay after all: “It's great to see buy-to-let lenders reduce rates and landlords around the country who were considering selling up may breathe a sigh of relief.”Riz Malik, director of Southend-on-Sea-based independent mortgage broker,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.r3mortgages.com/">R3 Mortgages</a>, echoed Lennox's positivity: “If other companies decide to emulate The Mortgage Works' approach, it could provide new opportunities for landlords who previously felt stuck without options. I'm optimistic that the upcoming weeks will bode well for the mortgage market, especially if the inflation data set to be released on the 16th paints a favourable picture.”&nbsp;Meanwhile, Kundan Bhaduri, director of London-based property developer and portfolio landlord,&nbsp;<a href="https://u7061146.ct.sendgrid.net/ls/click?upn=4tNED-2FM8iDZJQyQ53jATUcIjW02CLy3pvt71ACDMi1EFQGW9l6XKy-2B6hd9NVrfFyVEln_Q6ukVbzobUvGlvMWHQFcJz0IzSBt-2BHBH-2F5RRwWnjrULmTKoIOGdYeLJxu0-2Fwu3kKvlvSHjcY4Q4Ve9I2No5l8Q61RGDxFI1oyY1rgakGCmPKdqgcuJkl1C5-2F787UlC0APuLARsXhQbYRM7OfZcaHefY1-2FLYVS9Jdeyiw5P6zcnr5KhClYNO2lnfwfD1zl5P1r9ALxnh4t39J-2Fy9nW-2BrdDfJXCy6IemJ6N3K5S8oGqDh0qgmuC4kM39cuXB2lffoOgpsbjpxi8L8gkNS7jb5aoHEP-2BEWqLf15X-2FZmGz8LdlhOJg9K3K-2BQmcD54-2FlxhbFt7S-2BnWhk6vPPpS3pNED4edz24WpZSLbfGPgbDsnalzHg-3D">The Kushman Group</a>, commented: “This move signals a potential turning point for the buy-to-let sector this year and we are considering multiple purchases currently in the pipeline, anticipating the likely reduction in mortgage interest rates.”&nbsp;But some brokers were sceptical that other lenders will follow suit. Kirsty Wells, director of Saint Leonards-on-Sea-based <a href="https://u7061146.ct.sendgrid.net/ls/click?upn=4tNED-2FM8iDZJQyQ53jATUcjKa0mfl4Yum-2FBLURsWgnKmUvhLpWrIJ10srWJZurjDNCWr_XjPcIOqdCAh8dskyj-2Fkh4I-2BN2d0-2F0IBZeBWZWiLT-2BlwowqJtqs0sXa2KH0TknTW1B0d62VFkrKhBjunb03BnDR-2BafPT-2BBCyJxMRNr4AGB1A1zkPCRASM2exFtXbOPF5HaSq-2Fs86N9pPJ5JJQ7QloHeczWyLeZUn4c0e4j4vCdowKoHyWb0-2FOE4MNmFNWxiSxVRCzbHxOgsZEHDRVx7O6-2BE684yZNj-2B80zEFUQN84biUKu30i7x1hiOzEqVFzMzMe7NrpxoIabIuM02-2FHug4LcOYyyhpNcFQ6Pd8QQEM0arReK3NMwzzz4TzUILcd1bFtmRqJhdPMkLBpive5H6QRm-2F-2B0yKfUIN4IK8i5njdeagmkuBjTibXb8nsLYbhmkNHa">Blueprint Mortgages</a>, said: “I hope other buy-to-let lenders will follow suit but think it's unlikely in the short term.”Joe Garner, managing director of <a href="https://u7061146.ct.sendgrid.net/ls/click?upn=4tNED-2FM8iDZJQyQ53jATUdgLhqQ4dvgyqR06nusDX-2BVrjkI24u9KlzgvAfmFus-2BINQIt_Q6ukVbzobUvGlvMWHQFcJz0IzSBt-2BHBH-2F5RRwWnjrULmTKoIOGdYeLJxu0-2Fwu3kKvlvSHjcY4Q4Ve9I2No5l8Q61RGDxFI1oyY1rgakGCmPKdqgcuJkl1C5-2F787UlC0APuLARsXhQbYRM7OfZcaHefY1-2FLYVS9Jdeyiw5P6zcnr5KhClYNO2lnfwfD1zl5P1r9ALxnh4t39J-2Fy9nW-2BrdDZ292n-2BZEAeZBmW3e-2F14s72UJMq-2BPqLEYTiZeMCyzU3NwavNxsvBAHzYiCXvfTIztY1VOCQR8-2Bs8zqExuEnDHEfpwyXRD5mUd-2FHtzAzMl7WIwpz5BxGG54OY-2BddrcQKm4n-2Bv9nAyj6s4zpwJ-2B0ox5Eg-3D">Joe Garner Consulting</a> cautioned that the real problem is less rates and more the legislative and fiscal changes in the buy-to-let sector. “This is good news and it is likely more BTL lenders will follow suit. However, the rates aren’t the real problem. The issue for small-scale buy-to-let investors and accidental landlords is Section 24 of the Finance Act 2015. Good quality landlords are being unfairly penalised in a way that has paralysed the buy-to-let market. Interest costs should be deductible, especially as landlords are tasked with upgrading their properties to meet energy standards.”&nbsp;Wes Wilkes, CEO at the Newcastle-under-Lyme-based&nbsp;wealth manager,&nbsp;<a href="https://u7061146.ct.sendgrid.net/ls/click?upn=4tNED-2FM8iDZJQyQ53jATUfqe7SR7w-2BtaQxUhOShwp3IcGHTA5wOCJ9JdYVnJE8OJdqOr_bPJQ-2BOCb3aW1T83x2gM7vimlg84diUZW7iBFp87i3zReuRomU54V06-2F-2BxTIlgN70eXaOIC1GIJFES3S2QJVMvGT38QO-2B-2B8UflAr5cKfMkhUKr5QMObY5zAQMJizbA0mO2gvLYN1BLt3FaBxWud7Svn-2FaLxc0ipkG9mhNLq39KcLIdDoQD610fFHBK1xfVIBdDFxpMw-2FxlBfNk0p3-2BDDZVQwAFZlXPxu-2FNmzPNd6siqRkblWCfXF2uc7m91N1zjJfKnikJ4OkU4NX8uNge1BUQxNAJsmd0nyyvPZWWodX0RIVRiCBFsLoIcN0bAeus74qYoD42gO4ASeBDTJShNtACQ8CjT6DcMfgtEDe67rVVR8-3D">Net-Worth Ntwrk</a>, &nbsp;was pleasantly laconic: "This is great news and The Mortgage Works should be applauded.”Publishers: if you use any, or all, of the content in this News Alert for publication, please credit Newspage® and link to <a href="https://newspage.media">https://newspage.media</a>&nbsp;

The Mortgage Works drops buy-to-let rates by up to 0.95%

Sorry for the tight deadline on this one, quick fire!&nbsp;FCA data shows 88,059 borrowers took a mortgage with a term of 35 years or more in 2022 - a record high.&nbsp;Are you seeing a similar increase from clients? What are the risks?&nbsp;Thanks very much,&nbsp;Rachel&nbsp;

35+ year mortgages on the rise 

At 09:30 this morning, HMRC is publishing the latest residential and commercial property transactions data. It gets widely picked up in the media so a few quick Qs. Just answer the ones relevant to you.<ul><li>In the past few months, how active has the residential property market been in completed transaction terms and what are you expecting for the rest of the year (and why)?</li><li>In the past few months, how active has the commercial property market been in completed transaction terms and what are you expecting for the rest of the year (and why)?</li><li>What are the main factors influencing residential and/or commercial property transactions at present? Are transactions taking longer, and are more falling through?</li></ul>

Latest HMRC property transactions data

Tandem Bank, a lender dedicated entirely to intermediary services, has unveiled its new initiative, “Treating Brokers Fairly”. Richard Angell, the National Account Manager, passionately shared his belief that brokers should be freed from excessive working hours and unwarranted stress. <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/richard-angell-2005227_the-first-topic-we-are-discussing-on-tandem-activity-7090306653446656000-yX6v?utm_source=share&amp;utm_medium=member_desktop">Click here</a> to view the entire video. UK newswire, Newspage, asked brokers if they appreciate Tandem's recognition of the broker's importance — and what is stopping other lenders, even those on the high street, from adopting a similar approach. Their views are below.

Brokers respond to Tandem "Treating Brokers Fairly" initiative

12 lenders have reduced their mortgage rates this week (albeit some have also increased their pricing) and average rates are starting to slowly fall.&nbsp;Is the end in sight for mortgage rate rises and can we expect fixed-rate deals to get cheaper for the remainder of the year if inflation continues to fall and lenders compete for business?&nbsp;Keen to hear your thoughts! Are borrowers starting to feel a bit more optimistic?&nbsp;Thank you&nbsp;

Have we seen the end of mortgage rate rises? 

What do you think will happen to mortgage rates over the next few weeks? Are we likely to see more reductions on fixed rate deals if the Bank of England raises interest rates by only 25bps? What have lenders priced in? Are lenders who are making rate reductions getting overwhelmed with demand, or do they need to compete with each other for business?

Mortgage rate outlook

UK newswire, Newspage®, asked mortgage brokers and financial services tech experts how fintech lenders compare to traditional high street lenders, e.g. what their strengths and potential weaknesses are, if they are stronger in any particular areas, and how much business they place with fintech lenders versus the high street. Some were very sceptical, saying “fintech is the biggest con going” and that the term is used to “establish eye-watering valuations”, while others said they “bring a lot to the table” and that “most standard mortgages can go through fintech lenders quite well”. The views of brokers from around the UK can be seen below.

High Street versus fintech lenders 

In its <a href="https://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/assets/pdfs/investors/financial-performance/lloyds-banking-group-plc/2022/full-year/2022-lbg-fy-results.pdf">full year accounts for 2022</a> published this morning, Lloyds has announced it has put aside an underlying impairment charge of £1.5 billion (of which £0.5 billion was in the fourth quarter alone). Free PR platform, Newspage, sought the views of brokers.

Lloyds sets aside £1.5bn credit impairment charge

This morning at 07:00, the latest official retail sales was published. It showed a drop of 0.4% in November. Free PR platform, <a href="https://app.newspage.co.uk/register">Newspage</a>, sought the views of small independent retailers.

Retail sales fall 0.4% in November

Newspager Mike Staton of Staton Mortgages is not happy. In fact he's fuming about the latest example of conditional selling. You can read his post on LinkedIn &gt;&gt; <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/michael-staton-0b150852_mortgage-property-misselling-activity-6994621194767327232-pMCU/?utm_source=share&amp;utm_medium=member_android">here</a> &lt;&lt;. Following Mike's post, UK newswire, <a href="https://newspage.co.uk">Newspage</a>, asked a selection of brokers for their views on conditional selling. One says he has lost two clients over the past month alone due to conditional selling and that it will become more common “as agents start to see a downturn in purchase transactions and try to maximise revenue and profit from as many avenues as they can”.

Conditional selling likely to rise as transaction levels drop

This morning, the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2022/october/boe-widens-gilt-purchase-operations-to-include-index-linked-gilts">Bank of England has announced</a> that it will widen the scope of its daily gilt purchase operations also to include purchases of index-linked gilts, as it warned an ongoing rout in the gilts market poses a “material risk to UK financial stability”. Newspage asked FS experts for their views.

Bank of England widen the scope of its daily gilt purchase operation to include purchases of index-linked gilts

The Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, has announced a U-turn over the abolition of the top rate of income tax for the highest earners. We asked small business owners for their thoughts on this.

Chancellor U-turns on scrapping 45p tax rate

Following Liz Truss's energy price cap announcement last week, some brokers have suggested that property market activity may start to tick up again now that people know&nbsp;what’s happening with their utility bills for the next two years — and that they are already seeing signs of this. We therefore asked a number of brokers&nbsp;for their views on whether this certainty could stimulate demand.

Brokers on whether certainty of energy price cap could stimulate demand 

At 10am today, an official report was published: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/announcements/trust-in-government-uk-2022">Trust in Government UK 2022</a>. The main points were:<ul><li>35% of the UK population stated that they trusted the national government, which is lower than the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) average (41%).</li><li>42% of the population reported that they trusted local government and 55% trusted the Civil Service.</li><li>Trust in public services was higher than trust in the national or local governments, with the NHS the most trusted public service (80%), followed by the courts and legal system (68%).</li><li>75% of the population believed that the UK government should place a higher priority on creating conditions for businesses to thrive, 64% said they should place higher priority on reducing climate change and 54% believe they should place higher priority on reducing the national debt.</li></ul>We asked small business owners three questions:<ul><li>Do you trust the current Government?</li><li>What are your views on politicians and the UK political system as a whole?</li><li>What do you think of public services in this country?</li></ul>

Trust in Government

We &nbsp;asked brokers if the age of rock-bottom interest rates is finally over (almost all believe it is). Also, as more people lock into longer term fixes, we asked them if borrowers could regret it if rates come back down once inflation is under control to get us out of a potential recession. Their views are below.

Is the age of rock bottom rates over?

A vote of confidence in the PM will take place this evening. We sought the views of small business owners around the UK.

Vote of confidence in PM

Upcycling is on the increase, as concerns about the environment grow and the cost of living crisis bites. Newspage caught up with 22 upcycling companies based in all corners of the UK. The number of materials that are being used is mind-boggling, and ranges from coffee pods,&nbsp;vinyl records and cutlery headed for landfill,&nbsp;to old phones, car wheels and even the spare legs of mannequins in skips.

Upcycling trends 2022

With interest rates rising, inflation soaring and the economy creaking, there's growing talk of a house price crash in the UK. We asked brokers and estate agents whether they think a crash is on the cards. Their views are below.

Will there be a house price crash?

On Friday, Santander announced that it is making changes to its affordability calculations on 6 April, taking into account not just rising energy bills and household expenditure as per the revised ONS data, but also the increase in National Insurance and dividend income tax rates.Newspage asked brokers whether tighter affordability related to dividend income tax rates could see a lot of people who have bought big properties on exceptionally low rates end up struggling to remortgage, all the more so if their property's value has gone down? Could this result in a new demographic of highly leveraged higher net worth mortgage prisoners?

Are company directors at risk of becoming mortgage prisoners?

Newspage asked mortgage brokers one simple question:<ul><li>What's making your blood boil right now?</li></ul>Their responses can be seen below.

Brokers and what makes their blood boil

<h3>This Sunday (27th March) is Mother’s Day and Newspage, in association with local shopping platform, ShopAppy, asked 30 mums who run their own businesses to discuss the challenges they face each day. We asked them a selection of questions (below).</h3><ul><li>What are the main challenges you’re facing right now as a business or charity owner?</li><li>What are the specific challenges you face as a mum running a business or charity?</li><li>How optimistic are you in the current climate (cost of living crisis, rising interest rates, rising fuel and energy prices, rising everything)?</li><li>Do you have a strategy for riding out the turbulence that lies ahead?</li><li>Despite all the uncertainty, are you still glad that you are your own boss?</li><li>What are the key traits that have helped you succeed to date?</li><li>What tips would you give to another mum thinking of starting her own business or charity?</li><li>Overall, do you find you have the right work/life balance?</li></ul>Their responses can be seen below.

Mums running their own businesses

Ahead of the latest inflation data due to be published Wednesday, Newspage is seeking the views of small business and charity owners on how it's impacting them. Just add your responses below for the chance for free media coverage.

Inflation and your business or charity

<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1059646/Housing_Supply_Indicators_Dec_2021.pdf">A report has just emerged from the ONS</a> showing the number of homes being built in England decreasedin &nbsp;the last three months of 2021. Two key takeaways points below.&nbsp;<ul><li>The number of dwellings where - according to building control figures - building work has started on site was 41,600 in October to December 2021. This is a 3 per cent decrease when compared to last quarter and is a 3 per cent decrease when compared to the same quarter of the previous year.</li><li>The number of dwellings completed - according to building control figures - was 41,330 in October to December 2021. This is a 4 per cent decrease when compared to last quarter and is an 11 per cent decrease when compared to the same quarter a year ago.</li></ul>Newspage sought the views of property experts around the UK….

Supply, supply, supply

John Lewis <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.johnlewispartnership.co.uk/media/press/y2022/john-lewis-introduces-new-pledge-on-quality-and-value.html">has retired</a> its “Never Knowingly Undersold” promise to customers because it applies to fewer and fewer sales as shopping moves increasingly online, and isn’t applicable to online-only retailers. Newspage asked small business owners for their thoughts.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Never Knowingly Undersold 

<h4>Newspage has identified 50 small business owners who are actually feeling upbeat about 2022 despite the cost of living crisis and all the other pressures people are facing right now.</h4>You can read their stories and experiences below. All are available as case studies and to be interviewed. We have small businesses in every corner of the UK if you're looking for upbeat business stories local to you.<figure class="image"><img src="https://s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/newspage.com-staging/company/43/files/7be132f3479bc02f214a5be733e06c41a9c16eedebbca46f3ea7a79896f4d23d43c7a20000605ec2e75afd079cade2b16ec3d0803c5e54127ab81719d07a0030.jpeg"></figure>&nbsp;

It's all doom and gloom, right? Wrong.

<h3>In recent weeks, a number of independent mortgage brokers have alerted Newspage to underhand practices at certain corporate estate agencies.</h3>The negotiators at these agencies are apparently intimating to prospective buyers that their offers to purchase a property will not be put forward for consideration to the seller unless they agree to additional in-house services offered, such as mortgage advice or legal services.Basically, it seems some corporate estate agents are using people's desperation to buy and the sheer strength of demand in the market to sell in-house advice.What most brokers are keen to stress is that the majority of estate agents, especially small, independent ones, do not use these ‘conditional selling’ tactics and offer a great service to seller and buyer alike.In the words of broker Rhys Schofield of Peak Mortgages &amp; Protection, who has a client prepared to go on the record about this practice and is building a case to present to the Association of Mortgage Intermediaries:&nbsp;<blockquote>“I won't mince my words: many agents are repeatedly breaking the law and don't give a damn about it because clients are too scared to complain for fear of missing out on properties.”</blockquote>Another broker, Rob Peters of Simple Fast Mortgage, goes so far as to call ‘conditional selling’ a cancer:<blockquote>“There is a filthy cancer in the estate agency world, which needs to be addressed.”</blockquote>A third, Lewis Shaw of Shaw Financial Services, says this:&nbsp;<blockquote>I've had numerous cases of estate agents trying to push financial services onto my customers; in the last three instances, they've all been part of the Connells or Countrywide groups, specifically Bairstow Eves, Frank Innes and Burchell Edwards. They're pushing this idiotic line of 'we have to financially qualify them' even though all the customers in question had agreements in principle."</blockquote>

Conditional selling skyrocketing as demand soars, say brokers

<h2>This morning, the Office for National Statistics published the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/announcements/gdp-monthly-estimate-uk-december-2021">GDP data for December</a>. GDP increased by an estimated 7.5% in 2021, following a 9.4% fall in 2020, but it didn't hide the fact that the Omicron variant savaged the retail and broader services sector in December.</h2>As ever, the vast majority of major media outlets have quoted macroeconomists rather than real businesses, many of whom are really struggling right now and need to be heard.&nbsp; The comments below from Barry Whitehouse who runs an art shop in Banbury, is more powerful than any of the abstract jibber jabber spouted from the city this morning, but the media in all their blindness cannot see it: "Footfall is visibly lacking in store and in town, and to be honest for the first time I am worried for the future of my shop. Takings in December were around 15% down on the previous December but January and February to date have also been quiet. January was around 50% down on pre-pandemic levels&nbsp;and has left me wondering if I’ve just had my last Christmas as a bricks and mortar retailer." Another powerful quote came from <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/ACoAAA4Mo0kBAMGcIaiO4_qtxdI0jvgsKQ4PeJQ">Jenny Blyth</a>, who runs a gift company, but has it been used yet? Has it hell. "The day-to-day running of our small business is now like wading through treacle and we are fighting a tide of bad news in the form of rising energy bills, inflation and taxes.&nbsp;We were pleased that heading into January our sales were steady but as the cost of living crisis heightened, our sales have nosedived." And then there's this corker from <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/ACoAAAB8NX8BYKRNyUrFInndFb4AEmXxzrDT_NI">Dr Jackie Mulligan SFIPM</a>. Again, no-one has run it yet. Why would you when you can quote an economist in a think tank or bank earning £300k+? “The Omicron variant absolutely decimated trade in December for countless high street retail businesses. The result is that many, sadly, are now struggling to survive. To make matters worse, inflation is hitting small high street businesses from all angles.&nbsp;Customers have less to spend, raw materials are costing more, supply chains are being squeezed, interest rates are on the up and the cost to heat their&nbsp;premises is skyrocketing.&nbsp;We estimate that at least a third of businesses on the high street will be relying on Valentine's Day to help them address the losses they experienced over Christmas." The media are so out of touch it's frightening. They need to start quoting real businesses and engaging with real people or they'll never stop the rot.More quotes from real businesses below.&nbsp;

The UK economy and small businesses

Net borrowing of mortgage debt by individuals decreased slightly to £3.6 billion in December, from £3.8 billion in November. This is below the pre-pandemic average of £4.2 billion in the 12 months up to February 2020. Gross lending fell to £21.7 billion in December, from £22.4 billion in November. Gross repayments fell to £18.1 billion from £19.4 billion in November.Approvals for house purchases, an indicator of future borrowing, increased slightly to 71,000 in December, above the 12-month average up to February 2020 of 66,700. Approvals for remortgaging (which only capture remortgaging with a different lender) rose slightly to 44,900 in December. This remains low compared to the 12-month average up to February 2020 of 49,500, but is the highest since February 2020 (52,500).The views of brokers can be found below.

Mortgage approvals remain robust in December

<figure class="image"><img src="https://s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/newspage.com-staging/company/43/files/14b23f20af063d9f17ffd64f76502bc7b5c1c5218370e95574e5a78622451ddcd127559becf2f93dbb1d887f1e927fbd4601da3ad2a6bf494d5b8a31f9fbac90.jpeg"></figure><h2>“We were somewhere around Barstow, on the edge of the desert, when the drugs began to take hold.”</h2>The drugs have certainly taken hold of the UK property market, as house prices went bananas in January.They were like some dude charging at you on Angel Dust in the back streets of Detroit.<h4>You're gonna need a .357 Magnum to put him on his arse. A 9mm just ain't gonna cut it.</h4>Anyway, I digress.Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said:“Annual house price growth accelerated to 11.2% in January, the strongest pace since June last year, and the strongest start to the year for 17 years. Prices rose by 0.8% month-on-month, after taking account of seasonal effects, the sixth consecutive monthly increase."Nobody quite understands what "after taking account of &nbsp;seasonal effects" means, but hey.&nbsp;You'll find views from Newspagers in all their glory below, but here are my two favourite reactions.You've got Scott Taylor-Barr over at Shropshire-based&nbsp;<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.summersheaney.co.uk/">Carl Summers Financial Services</a>, getting all clever with his geopolitical macroeconomics."Right now a lot of the potential buyers I speak to are deeply conflicted. They want to buy a home but they are reading a lot about rising interest rates, inflation at record highs, tax increases and soaring energy costs, and on top of that a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine. &nbsp;It's not surprising that people are approaching a big ticket purchase like a house with a little less of a gung-ho attitude in the current fraught climate."&nbsp;And Kate Allen, owner at Devon-based luxury holiday lettings specialist,&nbsp;<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.salcombefinest.com/">Salcombe Finest</a>,&nbsp;puts in with her usual panache:"Just like a bottle of Cockburn’s 1970 vintage port, the sheer lack of property will keep prices high. Whilst stock levels are as low as the Prime Minister's popularity, property prices are going to remain buoyant here throughout 2022. Even as wage growth slows this year as the cost of living crisis hits, it won’t stop deep-pocketed investors from quaffing Devon properties."&nbsp;

Nationwide: house price growth hits 11.2% in January

The ONS this morning published a report showing that, in December 2021, less than half of people (46%) thought they would be able to save money in the next year, and two thirds of people (66%) said their cost of living had increased at the end of 2021. We asked money experts for their views.

ONS data on savings

Yesterday the UK Treasury announced it will regulate stablecoins, which is arguably a major milestone on the road to the acceptance of digital currencies. The Treasury will even mint its own NFT this year. Newspage asked small businesses one simple question: “Would you accept Bitcoin or any other digital or crypto currencies as payment for your products or services?” 56% said they would, 44% said they wouldn't. We also invited them to explain their reasons, with 24 select responses below.

Would you accept payment in Bitcoin or other digital currencies?

<h2>House price growth edges back into double digits in November</h2>The UK housing market did what only the UK housing market could do in November, according to the Nationwide, delivering double-digit house price growth once again. According to the building society (feels odd saying that word)…<ul><li>Annual house price growth increased slightly in November to 10.0%</li><li>Prices up 0.9% month-on-month</li></ul>We sought the views of property experts around the UK…

Nationwide: house prices edge back into double digits in November

Tomorrow (Monday), the PM is expected to announce that new homes in England will be required to have electric vehicle charging points installed as standard by law from next year, in a major bid to try and move drivers away from petrol and diesel cars. Newspage sought the views of property, finance and mortgage experts.

Electric car chargers in new homes to be made law

At midday today, the Bank of England kept rates on hold. We asked small business owners around the UK for their views.

Bank of England rate decision - your verdict

Rishi Sunak today delivered the Autumn Budget. We sought reaction from small business owners in multiple sectors around the UK. They can be seen below.&nbsp;

The Autumn Budget - your views

<figure class="image"><img></figure><h2>Data published by the Office for National Statistics this morning showed completed residential property transactions in September remains very strong.</h2>In part, this was due to the stamp duty lag and but it also a result of the fact that changing housing preferences continue to drive transactions.<ul><li>The report showed provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of UK residential transactions in September 2021 was 160,950, 68.4% higher than September 2020 and 67.5% higher than August 2021.</li></ul>“Transaction levels in September had the madness of the summer stamped all over them”, said mortgage broker Lewis Shaw in Mansfield.&nbsp;<h4>More responses from the Newspage community below…</h4>

Monthly property transactions rise in September - ONS

From Thursday 21 October, the Halifax will be changing some of the loan to income (LTI) limits applied to its affordability calculations. Where income is &gt;£75,000 and LTV&lt;=75%, for loans up to £1m, the max LTI is being increased from 5.00x to 5.50x.Below is some snap reaction from brokers around the UK…

Halifax boosts income multiple to 5.5 times salary

<figure class="image"><img src="https://s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/newspage.com-staging/company/43/files/df9f777c507cba13d1456c0a1d0d543b2cf69cabdbc8990204891e2bc128c27493287f7cd9c029af50106ce5bcdf041a269518c36536bb24655f6d7aa410ba00.jpeg"></figure><h2>The Office for National Statistics today published<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/announcements/recent-trends-and-impacts-of-hgv-driver-shortages"> report on the HGV driver shortage</a> that is impacting the UK economy. Key findings were:&nbsp;</h2><ul><li>An estimated 268,000 people were employed as HGV drivers between July 2020 and June 2021. This is 39,000 fewer than the year ending June 2019 and 53,000 fewer than the peak for HGV driver employment, during the year ending June 2017 (321,000).</li><li>There has been a fall in the number of UK nationals employed as HGV drivers since the year ending June 2017. The number of EU nationals employed as HGV drivers increased between 2017 and 2020, but then decreased during the coronavirus pandemic.</li><li>The number of HGV drivers has generally declined since July 2016 to June 2017. The largest decline over the four years was among those aged 46 to 55 years.</li><li>Around 22% of businesses reported challenges importing in early to mid-September 2021, because of a lack of hauliers or logistics equipment and 10% reported challenges exporting for the same reason.</li></ul><h4>Reaction from small businesses below…</h4>

HVG driver shortages holding economy back

<figure class="image"><img src="https://s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/newspage.com-staging/company/43/files/d8399fbe10ca6d8767de1da51c14d66306bd4670851b3ab257edb7f240e10ce0b9b2876bc52816adb4bf5124f5f17e76a3817e000c54f686c62f0cc5d5dc9931.jpeg"></figure><h2>Markets are increasingly betting that the Bank of England will raise interest rates before Christmas to contain spiralling inflation.</h2>With this in mind, we asked a selection of small business owners around the UK to answer one simple question:<ul><li>Should the Bank of England raise interest rates this year or not — and why?</li></ul><h4>Their responses are below…</h4>

Should the Bank of England raise interest rates this year?

<h2>An ONS report <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1024762/Household_Resilience_Study_Wave_3_April-May_2021_Report.pdf">published this morning</a> has found that:</h2><ul><li>The proportion of renters who expect to eventually buy their own home has declined further this year.</li><li>One in ten households &nbsp;said they were behind with at least one household bill in April-May 2021, while more than one in five had recently used their savings to pay their rent or mortgage.</li><li>In April-May 2021, 22% of households had recently used their savings to pay their rent or mortgage.</li></ul><h4>Newspage sought the views of mortgage and financial experts:</h4>

ONS report - home ownership and finances

<figure class="image"><img src="https://s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/newspage.com-staging/company/43/files/2bdcdb85e82982db17651202b1a8afc958fce8aed56b61ca10a8688e5bdd81a9be813339906d04d007cdb2a652fd97050949c43c8b05cee1fc16e97f4a616beb.jpeg"></figure><h2>The number of UK job vacancies has hit a record high, according to <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/latest">official figures published today</a> by the Government.</h2>Office for National Statistics data show vacancies rose to a staggering 1.1m between July and September, the highest level since records began in 2001.Meanwhile, the number of people on payroll rose by a significant 207,000 to a record 29.2 million in September 2021.In news that will doubtless please the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, this returned the number of people on payroll to pre-pandemic (February 2020) levels.<h4>Reaction from HR and recruitment experts below…</h4>

UK jobs market data - your views wanted

<h2>World Mental Health Day is this Sunday, 10th October.</h2><h4>With mental health more of an issue than ever following the pandemic, Newspage sought tips and advice from experts on ways for people to manage their mental health and well-being.</h4>

World Mental Health Day: tips for managing your mental health and well-being  

<figure class="image"><img src="https://s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/newspage.com-staging/company/43/files/88891b7eef44269a33ab5b450f8c8770a91cd6c255a243cee95ff273eea6cce43150067adf6fad847c019f31a7ed63ba2a9b09b1558a6ac58d526dac77f74f22.jpeg"></figure><h2>UK house prices rose by 1.7% in September, adding more than £4,400 to the value of the average property, according to the Halifax.</h2>The lenders says the rate of monthly growth was the strongest since February 2007, pushing year-on-year house price inflation up to 7.4%.This also reversed the recent three-month downward trend in annual growth, which had peaked at an annual rate of 9.6% in May.The price of an average house is now as expensive as it has ever been, standing at just over £267,500.<h4>We sought the views of experts around the UK…</h4>

Halifax House Price Index September 2021

<figure class="image"><img src="https://s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/newspage.com-staging/company/43/files/529e0aad492de35ef4d395c2d3ebcdf5fcfeeb4f59d1c905cfa6f33763bbdf29b31e4aa59422710b757ce94d54c9e1c5e6e61dc92c8342875705051e178bc947.jpeg"></figure><h2>Annual house price growth slowed in September to 10% from 11% in August.</h2><h4>Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said:</h4>“Annual house price growth remained in double digits for the fifth month in a row in September, though there was a modest slowdown to 10.0%, from 11.0% in August. House prices rose by 0.1% month-on-month, after taking account of seasonal effects. As a result, house prices remain roughly 13% higher than before the pandemic began in early 2020."<h4>We sought the views of property experts around the UK:</h4>

Nationwide: annual house prices fall in September, but still in double digits

<h3>Newspage® has opened its doors to PR agencies for the first time, enabling them to help power the platform's ‘decentralised’ news agency with the insights and expertise of their clients.</h3><ul><li>Agencies can collaborate with the Newspage® editorial team and thousands of experts in all sectors in real time to identify and build stories that matter</li><li>Newspage® will editorialise the content and supply a rich and topical feed of impartial news content to publishers at no cost</li><li>Newspage encourages agencies to shift from a press release mindset to a storytelling mindset, generating content that is democratic and free of 'messages'</li></ul>Newspage, which launched as a free PR platform during the pandemic but evolved into a news agency as its user volumes grew, is regularly credited by a growing number of local, national and trade media in the stories they write.Unlike traditional news agencies that are centralised and charge for content, Newspage's content is decentralised and free. It relies on its user base to tell it what stories constitute news in their respective sectors, editorialises that content and then supplies it to relevant media free of charge.Newspage's success is built on its proprietary News Alerts, which proactively mine the intel and insights of thousands of hyper-engaged experts in real time for the stories that they say matter to consumers and businesses now.This derisks content for the media as they are publishing stories that resonate, and makes for more shareable content as diversity of voice is built in.During the trial period, Newspage will be onboarding 20 PR agencies. Agencies on Newspage® will be able to:<ul><li>create News Alerts themselves, seeking views and intel in real time from thousands of hyper-engaged experts in all sectors to build better stories that Newspage will editorialise and send to relevant media free of charge</li><li>respond to the News Alerts created by the Newspage news team on behalf of their clients throughout the day&nbsp;</li></ul>Newspage gives PR agencies an alternative to conventional journalist request and press release distribution services, enabling them to embed their clients into rich and impartial stories issued by Newspage® that journalists are then free to adapt as they see fit.Newspage Fee Structure - PR Agencies&nbsp;<ul><li>£500+VATpcm - PR agencies can create their own Newspage and add unlimited experts from up to 5 clients*. They can respond to News Alerts created by the Newspage news team and create News Alerts themselves, asking thousands of experts in all sectors for views, insights, case studies and data that add impartiality and depth to the stories they are working on. The Newspage news team editorialises the News Alerts and issues them to the media for free</li><li>£1000+VATpcm - As above, but PR agencies can create their own Newspage and add unlimited experts from up to 10 clients*.&nbsp;</li></ul>Dominic Hiatt, Founder, Newspage, commented:“Good PR agencies understand the value of quality content and quality content is what matters to news publishers most, especially at a time when many editorial teams are being scaled back. We're now enabling PRs to help power our unique, decentralised news agency and work with us to build impartial stories that draw on intel, case studies, data and insights that are collectively sourced rather than siloed, namely centred on one client. We believe our approach is a win for news publishers as it gives them a steady feed of credible and ready-to-go stories that their own journalists can adapt as they see fit, much as they would with a traditional news agency but minus the cost. It's a win for PR agencies, as their clients get valuable PR exposure through the stories we build together. And it's a win for readers as they get to consume richer stories with diversity of voice built in. Good PRs have always been good storytellers and Newspage® is now enabling them to take that storytelling to the next level. PR agencies who are ready to think differently should get in touch."*Newspage deals solely with the PR agency and not its clients. Once their clients are onboarded, agencies will be invited to an online group where they can work in tandem with the Newspage News Desk team to ensure they get maximum value from their subscription. Subscriptions &nbsp;to Newspage can be cancelled at any time.Sample stories provided by Newspage®Thisismoney (Mail Online) - 2 September 2024 - <a href="https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-13804547/amp/Mortgage-rates-continue-fall-HSBC-Barclays-NatWest-cut-home-loan-costs-tomorrow.html">Mortgage rates continue to fall</a>Daily Mirror - 14 March 2024 - <a href="https://www.mirror.co.uk/money/halifax-reduce-max-working-age-32350505">Halifax to reduce max working age for some mortgage applicants and it could hike payments</a>BBC - 8 February 2024 - <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68239182">Landlord mortgages in arrears double in a year&nbsp;</a>