Retail sales rise 0.9% in June but expert says "let's not mistake a heatwave for a healthy economy"

Retail sales are estimated to have risen by 0.9% in June 2025, following a fall of 2.8% in May 2025 (revised down from a fall of 2.7%), according to official data published this morning.

One retail expert said “much of the uplift was seasonal and driven by heavy promotional activity around events, sport and warmer weather” and that, beyond that, “demand remains selective and so-so”. Another financial expert warned this is more a reflection of “people drowning their sorrows or comfort eating as economic worries mount”, while a third said “let's not mistake a heatwave for a healthy economy”.

Food store sales rose following a fall in May 2025, with retailers reporting the warm weather had a positive effect. More broadly, sales volumes rose by 0.2% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025 when compared with Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2025.

The ONS says: “The warm weather in June helped to brighten sales, with supermarket retailers reporting stronger trading and an increase in drink purchases. It was also a good month for fuel sales as consumers ventured out and about in the sunshine.”

Experts were cautious about the data. Nicholas Found, Head of Commercial Insights at Retail Economics, said: "While headline sales figures for June suggest modest momentum on the surface, much of the uplift was seasonal and driven by heavy promotional activity around events, sport and warmer weather. Beyond that, demand remains selective and so-so. Food inflation is hitting households harder, leading to tighter budgets and renewed uncertainty around the cost of living.

"Consumers continue to reframe their priorities, with discretionary spending leaning toward experiences and categories where value can be clearly demonstrated. Retailers are walking a fine line. They are working to attract demand without sacrificing margins, all while contending with new structural cost pressures following the Budget. It’s a summer of cautious opportunity, but any resurgence in non-essential retail spending is likely to remain patchy, unless there’s a more meaningful improvement in discretionary incomes and consumer confidence."

Scott Gallacher, Director at Rowley Turton, shared much the same view: “The rise in retail sales — especially food and drink — may say less about renewed confidence and more about people drowning their sorrows or comfort eating as economic worries mount. Rather than celebrating good times, shoppers might simply be seeking small comforts in the face of rising unemployment, sticky inflation, and falling house prices. It feels more like retail therapy than a true recovery. The sunshine may have given a short-term boost to spending, but economically, there are still dark clouds overhead.”

Ranald Mitchell, Director at Charwin Mortgages, was also suspect: "Sunshine always brings a short-term sugar rush to the tills but let’s not mistake a heatwave for a healthy economy. June’s retail bounce is more BBQ than boom, driven by burgers, beer and beachwear. It’s a welcome pick-me-up, but with sales still well below March levels and volumes barely rising across the quarter, it feels more like a blip than a bounce-back. One thing we know for sure: the British weather won’t stay warm for long, and neither will this spending surge. Consumers remain cautious, interest rates are still biting, inflation remains high and, unless we see sustained momentum, this will be just another false dawn for the high street."

Samuel Mather-Holgate, Independent Financial Adviser at Mather and Murray Financial commented: “The baking barbecue weather heats up the economy, and that means Reeves might not get burned. June was a hot one, and Britons headed for the supermarket to entertain the neighbours. After a fall in sales the previous month, we couldn’t resist any longer and sales bounced back in June to coincide with the better weather. These figures could mean a return to growth for the UK economy and hopefully, for the Chancellor, higher tax receipts. The figures suggest fuel sales, soared too, but that could mainly be down to the increase in price on the forecourt.”

But Philly Ponniah, Chartered Wealth Manager at Philly Financial, was sceptical: “The 0.9% rise after May’s sharp decline reflects weather-boosted purchases rather than fundamental economic strength. While supermarkets saw stronger trading and fuel sales rose as people got out in the sun, this doesn’t signal broader resilience. The underlying consumer picture remains tough, with stretched household budgets and stubborn inflation pressures still in play.

"For interest rates, the Bank of England is unlikely to be swayed by seasonal spending. It will remain focused on core indicators like wage growth and services inflation.”