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2022 housing market predictions

ended 31. August 2021

So what the hell is going to happen to the property market in 2022? 

Are prices going to go up, down or flatline? Will all the people who rushed to buy this year at insane prices to save £15k be up to their neck in negative equity if the market collapses as unemployment soars?

Or will the property market once again defy the economic odds (it does tend to do that, after all, especially given the ridiculous lack of properties for sale and new homes being built)?

In the words of Aaron Strutt over at Trinity Financial: “House prices are likely to keep rising simply because there is such a shortage of homes.”

Robert Payne at Bristol-based mortgage broker, Langley House Mortgages, was slightly more cautious, but still doesn't believe prices will fall: “It is unlikely that property prices are going to continue to go up in 2022, certainly not at the rate we have seen in 2021, but for property prices to drop there needs to be a lack of demand and that looks unlikely.”

We asked the Newspage community of property experts for their views on what's going to happen in 2022. All of their views are below.

8 responses from the Newspage community

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"With economic turbulence on the horizon, it's really anyone's guess as to where house prices will go in 2022. My gut reaction is prices will begin to flatline if the BoE have to step in to keep control of inflation due to both the COVID bounce back and the impact Brexit may have on the rising cost of living. "Any house prices dips are likely to be contained regionally rather than accross the board, and will most likely be at the top end of the market such as central London where WFH becomes the norm; why buy a 1 bed flat in London Bridge for £750k when you can have a 4 bed detached house with a garden and garage within an hours commute for the twice mohtly visits you need to make to the office?

Property prices are likely to stabilise if interest rates rise in 2022 but this is highly unlikely to happen and with demand constantly outstripping supply in-demand areas will always attract a premium and houses being a preference for those with the ability to work from home and only the requirement to visit an office on the odd occasion so a flat in central London for a million pounds is not as attractive as a 3 bedroom property an hours commute away. Any pricing corrections will be area driven and not across the board and typically happen in price brackets where demand is not as high as family homes are still going for a premium only thing to knock this would be major unemployment but right now there is a skills shortage so if people are made redundant they will usually transfer their skills across to another industry or role.

"House prices are likely to keep rising simply because there is such a shortage of homes. People are still desperate to get on the property ladder so it is a supply and demand issue. Many family houses are still going to sealed bids and getting offers over the asking price. "

"Predictions of the market collapsing come and go - and property prices always remain buoyant. With government incentives and the furlough scheme coming to an end, we may see a gentle downturn - particularly for three and four bedroom homes which are less in demand than starter properties, but there won't be a cliff edge. "Economic recovery will have a huge influence on the number of transactions, and as we emerge from the pandemic new ways of living and working will also influence buying behaviours."

"The Bank of England has been reporting that employers are having difficulty recruiting to fill the vacancies they have, I'd expect anyone being made redundant in one sector being able to retrain to fill a vacancy in another - which will create some turmoil, but maybe not enough to send property prices crashing. I think 2022 will be a steady year with property transactions down on 2020/2021, which will be no surprise to anyone, as the stamp duty holiday pushed transaction levels to record breaking highs. "Given that, I think the property price outlook for 2022 is going to be pretty benign with little in the way of growth or falls overall; we may see some localised variation to this, but nationally I'd expect a plateauing of property prices in the short to medium term."

Having soared to stratospheric levels from the rocket fuel of the stamp duty holiday, the property market is likely to maintain this altitude on the back of record low interests and a continued lack of supply, as well as an economy bouncing back from the effects of the pandemic.

In the millionaires coastal playground that is Salcombe in Devon, I expect property prices to continue to defy the economic odds. The ongoing lack of supply will keep prices buoyant in the coming months despite the smaller tax savings on offer and the potential for economic doom in the future. But let’s be honest, the cash buyers snapping up luxury waterfront pads aren’t going to losing sleep about negative equity.

"It is unlikely that property prices are going to continue to go up in 2022, certainly not at the rate we have seen in 2021, but for property prices to drop there needs to be a lack of demand and that looks unlikely. "The stamp duty holiday has shown us that buyers can be impulsive, even when they are spending hundreds of thousands of pounds, so if there is speculation that property prices may be on the decline there will be plenty of prospective buyers looking to take advantage of this opportunity, which will nullify the outcome."