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"Starmer is in office but not in power" — and "leadership challenge is just a matter of time"

ended 15. September 2025

BUSINESS owners have said “Starmer is in office but not power” following the events of last week and that the Budget is now “Labour's last lifeline" — and if they get that wrong the party will face extinction at the ballot box. One predicted that “if Starmer either has a disastrous party conference or the Budget fails to land, he will be back home in Islington by Christmas”. Another believes “Nigel Farage is already measuring the curtains for No 10”.

Last week was a week of chaos for the Prime Minister: Angela Rayner resigning, a radical reshuffle, Peter Mandelson fired as US ambassador, the economy flatlining in July, and, on Saturday, Elon Musk calling for the dissolution of parliament outside Number 10 via video link at the Unite the Kingdom rally.

Tony Redondo, Founder at Newquay-based Cosmos Currency Exchange, said a leadership challenge is just a matter of time and described the Budget as pivotal: "Labour’s position remains tenable short-term thanks to their 170-seat majority, but make no mistake: Starmer is in office but not in power.

"His approval at -44% amid internal unrest means a leadership challenge is just a matter of time. Pulling through to 2029 seems highly unlikely. The Budget is now pivotal. Both Labour and the Tories face political extinction at the next general election.”

Harry Mills, Director at London-based Oku Markets, said: "PM Starmer's position is increasingly at risk, as his poor decision-making record and lacklustre leadership continue to build. 

"But who would replace Starmer, and when? Most have Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham or Health Secretary Wes Streeting as the favourites. Despite unrest building, Starmer won't go anywhere quickly. Perhaps a miserable Budget, a fired Chancellor and a few more bad decisions and scandals could see him off in the new year.

“Let's not forget we've now had the Corruption Minister sacked for corruption, the Housing Minister resign for not paying housing taxes, and the Ambassador to the U.S. sacked for being at the centre of Washington's biggest scandal. The Chancellor may yet be sacked for dodgy economics.”

Patricia McGirr, Founder at Burnley-based Repossession Rescue Network, said if they get the Budget wrong, Labour will face extinction at the ballot box: "Starmer’s grip on power is as paper thin as his party's policies. Last week’s chaos showed not just a leader adrift but a party that has lost its way. Forced cabinet reshuffles left the Prime Minister flopping like a fish while the economy stalls.

“The promises that brought Labour into power have dissolved, leaving only disillusionment. The Budget is now Labour's last lifeline. If it fails to deliver substance over spin, Labour won’t just stumble, they’ll face extinction at the ballot box.”

Kate Allen, Owner at Kingsbridge-based Finest Stays, agreed: “A simple trifecta of doom may well spell Starmer's downfall: Mandelson, Rayner and, above all, zero economic growth. I’ve little faith the Budget will be his saviour, but it’s his last throw of the dice.”

Keith Budden, Managing Director at Liss-based Ensurety, added: “When Starmer promised the British public change at the General Election, I don't think many interpreted that as change for the worse. I think he will be hoping that Trump's state visit goes without any hiccups, that there can be some positive announcements, such as this morning's announcements regarding nuclear reactors.

"The Budget really is his last chance saloon, and with Rachel from Accounts now Chancellor in name only, and Andy Burnham in Manchester polishing his spurs ready for a run to the capital, I would confidently predict that if Starmer either has a disastrous party conference or the Budget fails to land, he will be back home in Islington by Christmas, or at latest by the local elections next year.

"I sense, and fear, Nigel Farage is already measuring the curtains for No 10.”

5 responses from the Newspage community

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Editor
Kate Allen
Owner at Finest Stays
A simple trifecta of doom may well spell Starmer's downfall: Mandelson, Rayner and, above all, zero economic growth. I’ve little faith the Budget will be his saviour, but it’s his last throw of the dice.
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Editor
Tony Redondo
Founder at Cosmos Currency Exchange
After 15 years out of power, Labour simply forgot the difference between being a party of opposition and government. Keir Starmer's government is reeling after a disastrous week: Angela Rayner's resignation, a chaotic reshuffle, Peter Mandelson's sacking as US ambassador over Epstein ties, flat July GDP, and Elon Musk's video call calling for the dissolution parliament. Labour’s position remains tenable short-term thanks to their 170-seat majority, but make no mistake: Starmer is in office but not in power. His approval at -44% amid internal unrest means a leadership challenge is just a matter of time. Pulling through to 2029 seems highly unlikely. The Budget is now pivotal. A referendum on economic competence amid a mounting deficit. Success could reset narratives. Both Labour and the Tories face political extinction at the next general election. Starmer's fumbles have fragmented the vote, risking a 1931-style defeat.
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Harry Mills
Director at Oku Markets
PM Starmer's position is increasingly at risk, as his poor decision-making record and lacklustre leadership continue to build. His cabinet reshuffle following Rayner's resignation moved underperforming ministers rather than replacing them, and he now faces the question of whether he lied about his prior knowledge of the extent of Peter Mandelson's relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. But who would replace Starmer, and when? Most have Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham or Health Secretary Wes Streeting as the favourites. Despite unrest building, Starmer won't go anywhere quickly. Perhaps a miserable Budget, a fired Chancellor and a few more bad decisions and scandals could see him off in the new year. Let's not forget we've now had the corruption minister sacked for corruption, the housing minister resign for not paying housing taxes, and the Ambassador to the U.S. sacked for being at the centre of Washington's biggest scandal. The Chancellor may yet be sacked for dodgy economics.
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Patricia McGirr
Founder at Repossession Rescue Network
Starmer’s grip on power is as paper thin as his parties policies. Last week’s chaos showed not just a leader adrift but a party that has lost its way. Forced cabinet reshuffles left the Prime Minister flopping like a fish while the economy stalls. The promises that brought Labour into power have dissolved, leaving only disillusionment. The Budget is now Labour's last lifeline. If it fails to deliver substance over spin, Labour won’t just stumble, they’ll face extinction at the ballot box.
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Keith Budden
Managing Director at Ensurety
When Starmer promised the British public change at the General Election, I don't think many interpreted that as change for the worse. I think he will be hoping that Trump's state visit goes without any hiccups, that there can be some positive announcements, such as this morning's announcements regarding nuclear reactors. Starmer needs to show himself to be a world statesman, as frankly, at the moment, that statesmanship is about the only thing holding water. The Budget really is his last chance saloon, and with Rachel from Accounts now Chancellor in name only, and Andy Burnham in Manchester polishing his spurs ready for a run to the capital, I would confidently predict that if Starmer either has a disastrous party conference or the Budget fails to land, he will be back home in Islington by Christmas, or at latest by the local elections next year. I sense, and fear, Nigel Farage is already measuring the curtains for No 10.