Halifax UK house price index June 2021

"In June, the entire property market could be summed up in two words: Stamp Duty, or rather the lack of it. Everyone was pushing hard to beat the end of the first phase of the SDLT holiday, at £500,000. "Properties are flying off the shelves faster than agents can get them on. The extreme imbalance in supply and demand has resulted in some exceptionally sharp price rises, in some areas more so than others. "Even if the market is in a bubble, it's unlikely to go pop. Demand for property has always been high in the UK, even before the Stamp Duty holiday. So when demand does drop off, which is inevitable given the frantic activity of the past six months, this is more likely to result in low or zero house price growth for a period, rather than a drop. "The availability of mortgages is far better than at the beginning of the year, with lenders more comfortable with the treatment of furlough and other coronavirus support. However, due to the sheer volume of business in the system, it's taking much longer for all parts of the transaction than we have ever seen before, so patience is key. "Demand and therefore price growth are likely to remain strong in the sub-£250,000 market, as people continue to try and chase the Stamp Duty saving. Higher priced properties are perhaps going to plateau now that the Stamp Duty is payable again. Beyond October, that plateau will likely going to extend to all property, but it will still be an active and buoyant market, just one without the sharp house price growth we have seen over the past year."

"The rate of price growth will almost certainly slow in the months ahead, now that the first phase of the Stamp Duty holiday is behind us, but it's unlikely to go into reverse. "Interest rates are at an all-time low and I suspect people will continue borrowing until they start to edge upwards, which will understandably affect sentiment. "In terms of future price growth, we need to be looking more granular into which types of property might be impacted. For instance, blocks of flats, with no outside space, or smaller properties closer to the city centre, might fall due to the change of preferences people have when purchasing a property. "Areas outside of cities, with access to gardens, open spaces and closer to the countryside, are likely to be affected positively."2

"The stampede to buy property in June continued, despite the fact the Stamp Duty deadline was unachievable for most. Supply is still the market's nemesis, with multiple potential buyers lurking in the wings for every new property hitting the portals, which keeps driving prices upward. Until the supply issue is solved, it's hard to see the market stop its current run."

"We've seen a rush of buyers trying to get in before the end of the Stamp Duty holiday, with many now disappointed to have missed the full savings. Equally, there's a lack of knowledge among buyers that there are still Stamp Duty savings to be had until the end of September, albeit at a lower level. "Properties are as scarce as a table on a Friday night in a popular pub, with many being sold within days of coming onto the market. "We are still incredibly busy, and the reopening of pubs, bars and other entertainment venues hasn't seemed to slow down those wanting to buy their own homes, and especially those buying their first. "On the mortgage front, the self-employed have definitely been hit hardest when it comes to getting a mortgage, but hopefully this will change as restrictions are lifted."

"June was a mad dash to get deals over the line rather than a heavy influx of new applicants. While buoyant, it was by no means April or May. "We are halfway to the finish line in the Stamp Duty race, with the £500,000 nil band rate being halved to just £250,000 until the end of September. "In many areas of the country, people who are looking to move up the ladder from starter homes can still benefit from the prevailing Stamp Duty rates, and this should hopefully bring more lower value properties onto the market. "Mortgage rates remain ridiculously low and we have also seen the lender criteria relax in some areas, which has made it easier for some borrowers to access funds. Self-employment remains one of the key sticking points, as does higher loan-to-value lending. "As for the rest of the year, it all depends on whether you are a glass half full or half empty individual. The end of furlough and the Stamp Duty holiday drawing to a close are a cause for concern for some, but the past 12 months have shown that things don’t always pan out as you might expect. Personally, we would expect activity levels to be something a little closer to ‘normal’, whatever that is."

"It would be naive to assume that the Stamp Duty relief is the only factor driving the property market, especially when you look at the volumes of business being submitted in June by applicants who have no hope of meeting the deadline. "Lenders have relaxed their criteria a lot since the initial Covid restrictions so it's far easier to obtain a mortgage than it was, particularly at higher loan-to-values. The problem is the acute shortage of property on the market and the intense competition for anything that is."