Copy article

The Independent article ahead of the Budget

ended 27. February 2024

A journalist at The Independent wants views on what you think Jeremy Hunt will do to boost the housing market and help homeowners? And what would you like to see Hunt do to boost the property market? Or should he just leave it the hell alone and stop all this demand-side fiddling that just inflates prices further?

14 responses from the Newspage community

Copy all

Copy

Perhaps some tinkering to stamp duty; this could include increasing the threshold where first-time buyers start to pay stamp duty.

It'd also be good to see something to encourage lenders to offer high loan-to-value mortgages like the 99% schemes previously mentioned.
Copy

Since Truss I get nervy about Budget announcements.
The Spring Budget will see Jeremy paving the way for a General Election, so i'm sure we'll see a headline grabber or two.
How many of these will impact the housing market though, I'm not sure. I think we could see two things:
A total reform of Stamp Duty would provide the headlines the Tories need, but i think this is unlikely. Instead, an extension of the current reliefs, due to expire next year, would be welcome news.
A big hurdle for First Time buyers is deposits, so an improvement to the 25% top up the government give on Lifetime ISA's would be very popular and easy to implement.
Outside these I dont think there will be a major announcement next week to stimulate the housing market. However, anything he does to improve the economy will have a positive effect on SWAP rates which in turn will improve rates available to borrowers.
Copy

The goverment plans for the housing market in the upcoming budget will probably underwhelm. Almost certainly it will include their touted 1% deposit mortgages, that won't help many who cannot afford a mortgage for 99% of their needed house price, and maybe they will bring out the stamp duty holiday banners for another use, again to little avail as first time buyers can already buy up to £425,000 without paying stamp duty. I would be truly amazed if anything inovitive and useful was announced in the Spring Budget, and ultimately Hunt has higher burning priorities to consider.
Copy

Tax cuts and concessions are likely to be announced as the Chancellor attempts to reinvigorate the popular vote. For the property market, any relief on Stamp Duty Land Tax may well assist in offsetting the higher costs of mortgages. The 99% mortgage scheme will be unveiled and whilst it will open the door for some, its effectiveness remains open to debate. Further planning relaxation and development of brown belt could also well be on the cards, as Jeremy Hunt attempts to embed a longer term strategy for house building.
Copy

I would guess that Jeremy Hunt will come up with something pretty
unimaginative and just blowing smoke up the backside of would-be voters. The likely jazz hands moment might come from a hiatus on stamp duty (disaster in the making) or a 1% deposit scheme (further future misery). Both of which will simply drive up prices and demand further.
I personally would like to see a halt to the thumb screws on private landlords, and a move to make it profitable for them, at the very least so they can pay the basics and make some profit, which might stop them leaving in their droves. Perhaps then renters wont be faced with untenable rent increases meaning they may be able to afford to put food on the table.
Copy

What he will do and what he should do are two entirely different things. What he should do is leave well alone, and simply address the biggest issue the UK faces, the UK's housing shortage. Get more houses built. Its that simple. What he will likely do is try and rescuse voters by making unaffordable tax cuts, fiddling with stamp duty by perhaps abolishing it for downsizers and introducing a ridiculous 1% deposit mortgage scheme. I have to say I am genuinely worried about what he has planned.
Copy

The mortgage sector seems to be the conservative playground that they like to kick the ball around, it creates uncertainty and leaves everyone on edge. Prospective buyers and sellers are left scratching their heads not knowing what is factual or just rumours of possible changes. Mr Hunt needs to focus on getting the economy back on track and inflation reducing as this will have a positive impact on rates and the economy and will fuel more activity in the market. The constant tinkering trying to create more votes does no one any favours.
Copy

Gimmicks like the 1% deposit are poor policy from a floundering government. Structural, supply side policy needs to be implemented that incentives builders to create more affodable housing, and then creates an environemnt where buyers have confidence in their decisions to buy. Whatever Hunt proposes will be a sticking plaster of a gaping wound and will probably increase asset prices and be counter productive.
Copy

The main barrier to homeownership is the price of a house compared to the average salary. Many governments have tried to combat this by offering schemes designed to help ease the difficulty of reaching the high deposit levels needed to purchase a property at the current high prices. These schemes don't solve the main issue and infact have the opposite results with house prices increasing further as a result. There is and has been for a long time a severe lack of affordable housing. The quality of the housing is also up for debate and this puts off some buyers from considering new build properties. The government should concentrate on these two factors if they want to see sustained change in this area.
Copy

As mortgage brokers we are desperate to see something announced to support first time buyers. Whilst the 99% mortgage has been discussed, whether this happens in reality is a different thing. The biggest barrier we see at the lower end of the market is affordability. There are many people paying crazy amounts in rent that we know would comfortable be able to make a mortgage payment (usually because it's lower) but the affordability testing used by lenders just doesn't stack up for many first time buyers - leaving them trapped in rented accomodation with rising rents, which makes it even harder to save a deposit. We still have many enquiries on help to buy, even though it isn't available anymore - meaning that there is the appetite for schemes that allow clients to be able to scale up on their property purchase. Whilst this is a balancing act because first time buyer demand will always push house prices up - there are too many people trapped by the current rising rents with no way out.
Copy

Jeremy Hunt needs to really focus on the state of the country rather than further new build only schemes, and other worthless, over the long term, hollow initiatives. The only property front tweaks that would probably help the tories with the general public is a raising of inheritance tax threshholds added to a change to how stamp duty is charged - taxing the seller and not the buyer and giving elderly downsizers a stamp duty break to attempt to free up more properties at the top end of the market.
Copy

Tax cuts aside, the main thing that needs to be addressed in the budget should be a replacement scheme for help to buy. Even better, just reinstate help to buy. The rumours of a 1% mortgage are promising, but could have incredibly high rates of interest or other criteria similar to the 100% mortgages we see that could make them unviable.
Copy

Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, faces a critical moment on 6 March at 12:30 pm to offer the UK reassurance, economic boost, and household savings. As mortgage advisors, we urge immediate action for tangible savings, including:

1. Raising the IHT threshold significantly for individuals and couples.
2. Increasing the child benefit threshold to £75,000.
3. Enhancing the Lifetime ISA savings limit to £8,000 with a 25% bonus for first-time buyers.
4. Removing stamp duty for downsizing homeowners and raising the threshold for first-time buyers to £600,000.
5. Revising capital gains and dividend tax allowances, currently halved since 2023.
6. Lowering the headline corporation tax rate.

In an election year, tax cuts are likely, with potential impacts on polls. However, lesser-known tax adjustments could hold significance beyond the headlines.
Copy

Reform, reform and reform should be the mantra where stamp duty is concerned. It remains an unpopular, distortionary tax, one which has failed to keep pace with rising house prices and the flexible demands of a modern economy. Stamp duty reform would be impactful and popular so in an election year it's hard to see how the government could resist.