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Inflation falls to 4.6% in October - reaction live feed

ended 15. November 2023

The latest inflation data is out, showing the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 4.6% in the 12 months to October 2023, down from 6.7% in September. Full report >> here <<. Newspage sought the views of experts, below,

26 responses from the Newspage community

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Andrew Montlake
Managing Director at Coreco
The latest inflation figures are like a ray of sunshine cutting through the grey Autumn gloom, and will be a relief to policy makers and borrowers alike. Whilst the Prime Minister will try to claim all the credit, this is a result of both higher interest rates and an expected natural easing of prices generally. We have seen SWAP rates fall substantially in recent days as this fall was anticipated, and this set of figures will put paid to any further Bank of England rate rises in the short-term at least. One eye will still be fixed on the more stubborn core inflation, however, showing that we are not quite in the clear just yet. Lenders are now keen to get a good start to the New Year and battle for market share after a lost year of lending and I expect a continuation of their recent competitive moves, with mortgage rates being cut further as they finally move from a light skirmish to an all-out interest rate war.
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Emma Jones
Managing Director at Whenthebanksaysno.co.uk
This creates the potential for a more stable mortgage and property market as we enter 2024. Bad times don’t last forever and that's been proved with the news today. With lenders now competing ferociously for business and cutting mortgage rates across the board, it’s hopefully a sign of positive things to come. There may, just may, be some light at the end of the tunnel for UK households.
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Stephen Perkins
Managing Director at Yellow Brick Mortgages
This latest inflation data is even better than expected and a giant leap forward in terms of the future outlook for the economy. The annual rate in October 2023 was the lowest since November 2021, which will see an influx of mortgage rate reductions over the coming weeks providing Christmas joy to millions of homeowners. This should support the Bank of England holding the base rate steady for the next quarter at least. Whilst energy prices reducing have helped, they are still higher than they were two years ago, with the biggest reduction being in the price of goods. The Government and Bank of England will take credit for this latest data but it has almost exclusively been achieved by external factors beyond their control.
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Bob Singh
Founder at Chess Mortgages
Rishi has fulfilled his pledge to halve inflation from its dizzy heights. The 4.6% CPI figures are better than expected and mirror the sentiment in the States. This will cheer the markets and vindicate the Bank of England's decision to end the rate rises. However, the spectre of wage inflation looms large so any thoughts of rates falling are premature but they could fall ahead of forecast. Lenders certainly feel this given the aggressive rate cuts seen this week.
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Justin Moy
Managing Director at EHF Mortgages
This is excellent news for borrowers, and while rates will continue to slide over the coming months, the reduced inflation figures will give the public a renewed confidence that is so important with property and finance. The base rate will be held for a few months, at least until the end of Q2 2024, as inflation is still more than twice the current target, and either this needs to change or we have a bit further to go before we see base rate cuts.
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Elliott Culley
Director at Switch Mortgage Finance
The inflation data will be really positive for the mortgage market. In the short term, we should see further mortgage rate reductions. The Bank of England have stated that the base rate will remain the same for most of 2024. With inflation really starting to drop, I think base rate reductions could come much sooner. There have been some predictions the base rate will have reduced by May, but it could be even sooner than this.
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Ashley Thomas
Director at Magni Finance
It's great news to see such a significant decline in inflation. This is welcome news for borrowers, and an early Christmas treat would be further reductions in mortgage rates. I fully expect mortgage rates to reduce further in the coming days and wouldn’t be surprised to see a number of lenders offering options sub-4% before the new year. This will impact a number of people, especially those with rates expiring shortly. I would recommend that those who have recently secured rates to double check if there are better products now available.
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Jamie Lennox
Director at Dimora Mortgages
Christmas has come early for borrowers with a strong downturn in inflation. This will come as a huge boost to anyone seeking a mortgage and the wider property market, as confidence returns and the likelihood of further base rate increases reduces by the week. We could now see a mortgage sale bonanza in time for Black Friday with further fixed rate reductions to follow.
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Graham Cox
Director at Bridging Hub
This huge drop in the headline inflation rate was widely expected, but is great news nonetheless. The Bank of England will still be concerned about services inflation as reflected in the core inflation figure, though, which remains stubbornly high. Until that starts falling sharply, it's likely the base rate will remain on hold.
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Gary Bush
Financial Adviser at MortgageShop.com
It speaks volumes when we are all ecstatic about a 4.6% inflation figure with a target of 2%, but that is exactly where we are today. Either way, this is great news for the general public and adds to the positive uptick in sentiment we are seeing as 2023 draws to a close. The Bank of England will definitely continue to pause their base rate increases on 14th December.
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Amit Patel
Adviser at Trinity Finance
This is a huge milestone for households and businesses up and down the country. However, inflation is still well above the Bank of England's target of 2% and people are still struggling to make ends meet. I expect lenders will re-price their mortgages over the next few days on the back of the positive data. All eyes will now turn to the Autumn Statement next week.
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Riz Malik
Independent Financial Adviser at R3 Wealth
This is a big drop and takes us back to the levels of October 2021. It is also cooler than expected and this positive economic news should mean we end 2023 with another base rate hold. Expect further fixed rate mortgage rate reductions in the days to come. For borrowers, this news is as good as it gets.
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Rohit Kohli
Director at The Mortgage Stop
Inflation falling so sharply will be a massive boost for mortgage borrowers and the broader property market. With inflation tumbling to 4.6%, major lenders like HSBC and Halifax slashing rates again this week and the base rate likely to be left on hold, the Chancellor has a golden opportunity to reignite the UK housing market in his Autumn Statement and not just squander it by slashing stamp duty. For homeowners, who haven’t had to remortgage yet, this will be a welcome relief and offer some hope to their ever-decreasing budgets. For those who switched to a tracker, it's worth starting to speak to your mortgage adviser to see if there are opportunities to save from the highs seen in the summer.
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Craig Fish
Director at Lodestone Mortgages
This better-than-expected inflation data is fantastic. We will now see out 2023 with a base rate hold at 5.25% and an improving rate war from lenders all trying to fill their boots after what has been a disastrous year for their mortgage lending. This will hopefully now help those who need to remortgage and not just those who are purchasing as lenders start to show more support to all borrowers and not just a select few.
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Ranald Mitchell
Director at bad credit mortgage specialists Charwin Mortgages
This significant drop in inflation will come as a huge relief to everyone and we should now expect further mortgage rate cuts in the days to come. Mortgage lenders were already at war with each other on pricing and the inflation figures will only encourage them to go even further, and quicker. It looks like the property market will reignite in 2024.
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Samuel Mather-Holgate
Independent Financial Adviser at Mather and Murray Financial
This is great news for borrowers as the inevitable happens and inflation falls away after the spike in energy markets following the Ukraine war filters through other consumer staples and out the other side. Sunak will claim victory, in the same way as a cupbearer may have when Napoleon was successful. Mortgage rates should continue to reduce as lenders scrap it out to be top of the best buy tables, beware of the hefty fees that come with such an accolade. Sterling should, if not immediately, fall back on the Euro and the Dollar as interest rates could fall sooner rather than later with such a drop in inflation. Savers may have also seen peak rates and should consider locking into fixed rates bonds now if the money is needed in the medium term.
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Imran Hussain
Director at Harmony Financial Services
Great news and an early Christmas present to follow on from major lenders such as HSBC and Halifax dropping rates this week. Let's hope this is a positive sign for the mortgage and property market heading into 2024.
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Wes Wilkes
CEO at IronMarket Wealth
Todays inflation numbers are definitely welcomed. Expect a falling pound, a jump in the FTSE and picture politicians, bankers and policymakers falling over each other to take credit. It is a welcome relief for borrowers and investors, indeed it may well spark a Santa rally in investment markets with a matching new year clamber for market share with lenders. It’s important however to stay mindful that this adds to the slowing growth picture and some careful navigation is required to ensure that doesn’t automatically lead to a recession.
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Kundan Bhaduri
Property Developer and Portfolio Landlord at The Kushman Group
As predicted, the inflation data is welcome news. This will give great impetus to the housing and construction sectors. We welcome the reduction in inflation, and finally, the government has managed to keep its promise. This will provide the Chancellor headroom and confidence in reducing stamp duty and inheritance taxes in the upcoming Autumn Statement. Finally, some great news is on the way.
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Gary Boakes
Director at Verve Financial
The talks all week were that inflation would drop below 5%. HSBC and Halifax seemed to agree as they slashed their rates, with 2-year fixed rates going below 5%. This is going to be a massive boost to the market and I fully expect swap rates to react positively and other lenders to follow HSBC and Halifax and reduce rates over the coming week. With the Autumn Statement around the corner, things are looking far less bleak than they were just a short while ago.
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John Lamerton
Small Business Author at Big Ideas... for Small Businesses
Small business owners will cautiously welcome the fall, although it's worth remembering that a fall in inflation doesn't mean prices are falling, it simply means they're not rising as fast. Small firms still face a triple-whammy of rising costs, falling trade and higher-than-ever taxes, so won't be popping too many champagne corks at today's news.
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Alastair Hoyne
CEO, Finanze Capital at Finanze Capital
Christmas good news? Perhaps. Inflation's on a rollercoaster. Mortgage rates might continue to ease, giving borrowers further relief. Savers will still be feeling the pinch. Small businesses? It’s a mixed bag with a keen eye needed on the bigger economic picture. Uncertainty still lingers in the air but positive news is always welcome.
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Luke Thompson
Director at PAB Wealth Management
These inflation figures are much more positive than I was expecting them to be and do show that the rate rises instigated by the Bank of England are taking effect. But, the job still isn't done here. I worry that getting the inflation rate below 2% which will give the Bank more freedom to move interest rates both up and down as required by the economy is going to be difficult.

Many people may see these figures and hope that the base rate will start to fall quite quickly. I think personally that the Bank will want to see inflation fall below the 2% mark and be steady for a significant period before contemplating rate decreases. The end is not yet in sight for the high-interest rates which borrowers are facing.
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Peter Stamford
Mortgage Expert at Stamford Home Finance
Today's inflation news is a pivotal moment, signalling a hopeful outlook for 2024's mortgage scene. Lenders, keen to bounce back from a lacklustre year, are cutting rates, sparking intense rivalry. While the Prime Minister might take credit, external influences are the real drivers. We're not entirely clear yet, but the mortgage market is bracing for an energetic contest, with further rate reductions and a dynamic kick-off to the New Year.
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Jamie Thompson
Mortgage Broker at Jamie Thompson Mortgages
The Government claimed it’s goal was to halve inflation in a year. Well inflation has halved but the truth is that this would have happened had regardless as it was so high a year ago. Never has a less ambitious goal been set by a Government. They may have well said that they are going to make the country colder by December. No doubt this will be claimed as a typical Tories no best when it comes to the Economy. I think we need to remind them we have memories for more than a goldfish.
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Joe Garner
Founder & Managing Director at Joe Garner Consulting
An absolute triumph for the Bank of England. Remaining stead fast and strong in the face if criticism and populist government minister dog whistling deserves huge credit. Stoic governance and policy making is incredibly rare ever since the referendum.