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Base Rate Hold but Rates coming down soon?

Journalist: Justin Moy, Contributing Editor

ended 09. May 2024

The Bank of England has announced that the base rate will stay at 5.25%, but we could be close to seeing a base rate cut in the next few months. Two of the MPC indicated they would support a cut, and Andrew Bailey suggested a rate cut in June is not ruled out.

Newspage mortgage brokers were asked for their thoughts on today's announcement, how lenders will be able to react, and whether a cut in June is a real possibility.

 

13 responses from the Newspage community

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The decision to hold interest rates yet again comes as no surprise, but it was pleasing to see another member vote for a reduction. This shows that the winds are changing, and we can only hope that the current breeze shortly turns into a full-blown gale as every opportunity missed for a cut increases the risk of economic detriment.
All eyes will now be on the next set of inflation data and with the Governor stating he still needs to see more evidence of prices reducing, this could be the catalyst needed.
A summer rate cut would provide a welcome tonic to improve sentiment in the housing market and come as a welcome relief to thousands of borrowers.
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A cut in June is a very real possibility and one id expect to see. Its also likely following todays coments that we may see more cuts than current pricing suggests which is a clear signal that the MPC are now keen on boosting the economy, and finally helping out beleaguered borrowers and businesses.
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Andrew Bailey and his team are late to the party once again, which isn’t surprising as I doubt he gets invited to many.
The Money Policy Committee were too late to increase base rate and now they are too late to reduce it. Today was an opportunity to take control, raise confidence and improve the economy. It was an opportunity to help borrowers who are clinging on by their fingernails.
But who cares about the struggles of everyday people as long as you hit your magical 2% target. They have, once again, proven that they are totally out of touch with the public who face further uncertainty.
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Today's announcement from the Bank of England maintains the base rate at 5.25%, with hints of a potential cut on the horizon, possibly as soon as June. However, I'm sceptical about the likelihood of a rate cut next month. Any decision will heavily depend on broader economic factors and emerging data from the UK's market and economy. If the economic situation improves or inflation pressures ease significantly, a rate cut could be on the table. Lenders, meanwhile, will be closely monitoring these developments to adjust their mortgage rates accordingly. For now, borrowers should stay informed and consider their mortgage options with an eye on potential shifts in the interest rate landscape.






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June's base rate decision will likely be a dress rehearsal for cut in August especially given the voting split. A cut of any size will inject confidence in the UK housing market as it highlights that the worst may be over.
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Too little too late from the Bank? A cut will be great to get some happiness back to the nation and also bring some confidence back to the economy and business.
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With inflation still above target, there's no prospect of a rate cut any time soon. The Bank of England is backwards looking, so won't think about reducing rates until inflation is below target. This means we shouln't be expectin cheaper mortgage rates unti the autumn. Bad news for the economy, busineses and households.
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Most lenders looked to have priced in a hold decision following the recent spate of increases across the board so unless markets react badly then we shouldn't see too much movement from lenders. Andrew Bailey has set his stall to continue the overly cautious wait-and-see approach he prefers - giving him enough wriggle room to reduce rates later rather than sooner if he needs. At best we may see a small cut in June but its more likely to be late summer.
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Encouraging signs that we will see the base rate fall soon. The Bank of England did hold today but with 2 voting for a cut and 7 agreeing to hold, the consensus is starting to change. The language used by Andrew Bailey whilst still cautious was far more positive than in previous statements. All signs point to a reduction in the base rate over the next couple of months.
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Today's hold is dissapointing however it is looking like the end is near for rate rises and we should see a reduction on the horizon, potentially in June. This would get us back on track with fixed rate reductions and bring some much needed positivity back!
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No big surprise there, the Bank of England has left the bank base rate at 5.25% - despite UK household budgets all creaking at the seams. With mortgage lenders all increasing and decreasing their rates for the past 4 weeks mortgage account holders need some stability, sadly they don't seem to be getting it anytime soon.
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A shift from 1 to 2 votes for a cut does not sound much, but it means a lot. If inflation does fall significantly next month, the Bank of England are going to come under extreme pressure to cut base rate, and with only a sway of a further 3 votes on the committee needed, this could happen. We wait with baited breath for those inflation figures!
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No surprises in todays rate holding amongst the mortgage broker community.

What I would say however is that giving "the dangled carrot" of a rate cut in XYZ month does nothing but stagnate the market. Clients hold out for rates to drop, which does not always happen, as we have seen two previous early expectations of rate cuts not come to fruition.

Either anounce the rates are staying the same or actually cut them. Don't hold them and say "Ahh but wait on as they may come down"