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Land Registry HPI and ONS rental data: "We have gone from good times to hard times in a matter of weeks"

ended 20. November 2024

Average UK house prices increased by 2.9%, to £292,000, in the 12 months to September 2024, up from 2.7% in the 12 months to August 2024, according to official data published by the Office for National Statistics this morning. Meanwhile, average UK private rents increased by 8.7% in the 12 months to October 2024, up from 8.4% in the 12 months to September 2024. Newspage asked property experts for their thoughts on the property market and where it is headed next. Their views are below.

8 responses from the Newspage community

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David Stirling
Independent Financial Advisor at Mint Wealth
The small increase in average annual house price growth disguises the absolute pandemonium that has occurred since the Budget. With landlords ditching properties due to CGT changes and new landlords reconsidering purchases due to increased stamp duty, it is a terrible time to be a renter. Rents are rocketing as this data shows and tenants will be feeling the pain. With this in mind it should be a great opportunity for first-time-buyers with competition lowered and more properties available. However, first-time buyers are now facing increased mortgage rates and tighter affordability models, so we're all back to square one in the property Snakes and Ladders game.
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Emma Jones
Managing Director at Whenthebanksaysno.co.uk
Tenants are in an impossibly difficult place right now, with average rents once again on the way up. As landlords exit the sector en masse, reduced stock levels mean rents are spiking as a result. The property market is in a vastly different place to where it was in September, when lower mortgage rates were boosting confidence and transaction levels. That confidence has now been sapped. It's looking like a tough start to 2025 lies ahead.
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Andrew Montlake
Managing Director at Coreco
House prices may have risen but the increase in values looks set to level off in the months ahead as the fallout from the Budget continues. In September the property market had real momentum as mortgage rates were falling and there was a sense of optimism in the air. That optimism has now gone. With amateur landlords exiting the rental sector in their droves, rents could continue to rise, piling further pressure on tenants. We have gone from good times to hard times in a matter of weeks. The stamp duty deadline could support activity levels in the early stages of 2025 and lenders competing for what business there is may help things but it's a going to be a tough year.
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Daniel Hobbs
Managing Director at New Leaf Distribution
The property market was starting to gain momentum as this data shows but in the months ahead it could succumb to a perfect storm of rising mortgage rates, rising inflation and declining consumer confidence following the Budget. We've gone from a property market that was growing in confidence to one with very little confidence at all. If inflation continues to rise and the Budget hits the economy as hard as many believe it will, prices could start to reverse in 2025.
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Michelle Lawson
Director at Lawson Financial
House prices were moving in the right direction before the Budget, namely up. But Labour and their Budget have cast a long shadow over the green shoots of recovery, with mortgage rates rising, rents going through the roof and sentiment in decline. Interest rates increasing are hurting people. Mortgage affordability is tough for all, people have less disposable income so getting a deposit together is taking longer and everything is increasing in price across the board. The housing market is on its knees, with renters seeing rents rise sharply as small landlords exit the sector. There really isn't too much to be optimistic about.
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Ben Perks
Managing Director at Orchard Financial Advisers
That was then and this is now. The last few weeks have really taken the wind out of the property market's sails. The Budget went down like a lead balloon, sending markets into a spin and swap rates climbing in the process. But at the risk of sounding like Yazz, the only way is up. I still believe 2025 will be a more positive year for borrowers across the UK, and for house prices and mortgage rates to stabilise in the weeks ahead and then steadily improve next year. I think the Budget has ensured one thing though: whilst the residential property market will bounce back and rise from the ashes, it will be leaving the buy-to-let market far behind it.
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Rita Kohli
Managing Director at The Mortgage Stop
In Romsey, Hampshire, first-time buyers are finding it increasingly difficult to get on the property ladder due to rising prices and the need to save for longer. The average price of a first-time buyer home remains strong at around £350,000, holding steady since the COVID period. With the government’s nil band rate set to reduce in April 2025, many first-time buyers will need to save even more to afford a home. Romsey’s desirability—thanks to its rich history, unique properties, and excellent schools—means property prices are unlikely to soften anytime soon. While land is being sold to developers, much of the new housing is unaffordable for first-time buyers, especially through shared ownership schemes, which are often overpriced by smaller developers. The principle of increasing supply to meet demand has not yet led to more affordable options, leaving many local buyers struggling to enter the market.
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Stephen Perkins
Managing Director at Yellow Brick Mortgages
House prices have continued their gradual rise but that was back when the market was filled with optimism. How things have changed in just a matter of weeks. The Autumn Budget burst the confidence balloon leaving everyone deflated on the outlook for the property market and mortgage rates. So far buyer enquiries are still steady, but when the teeth unveiled in the Budget start to bite the economy, employment and inflation, that demand will be subdued for much of 2025.