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ONS house price and rental data (July 24): "The property market, despite all the headwinds, is holding its own"

ended 17. July 2024

At 09:30 today, the latest official Private Rent and House Prices data, July 2024 was published. Among other things, it showed that average UK house prices increased by 2.2%, to £285,000 in the 12 months to May 2024 (provisional estimate), up from 1.3% (revised estimate) in the 12 months to April 2024. Meanwhile, average house prices increased in England to £302,000 (2.2%), in Wales to £216,000 (2.4%), and in Scotland to £191,000 (2.5%), in the 12 months to May 2024. Additionally, average UK private rents increased by 8.6% in the 12 months to June 2024 (provisional estimate), down from 8.7% in the 12 months to May 2024. Newspage asked mortgage and property market experts for their views, below.

7 responses from the Newspage community

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Stephen Perkins
Managing Director at Yellow Brick Mortgages
The property market, despite all the headwinds, is holding its own. Demand in the housing market during May and June, in the run-up to the election, was stronger than predicted. The General Election had less of an influence than usual, perhaps due to the certainty of the result and the lack of difference in the main parties' policies. We just need the first base rate reduction to get this summer started and to keep the lender rate reductions flowing. Sadly, this morning's inflation data may see the Bank of England once again err on the side of caution even though borrowers around the UK are crying out for a cut.
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Emma Jones
Managing Director at Whenthebanksaysno.co.uk
Those who predicted a double-digit collapse in house prices have been proved wrong. The market has remained stable despite the higher mortgage rates people have had to move onto. After the latest inflation data, we may need to wait a little longer for that first rate cut but when it does come, the property market should see demand rise further, which will further support house prices. It's encouraging that rents may have peaked, as tenants have been under the cosh for too long.
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Graham Cox
Director at Bridging Hub
At best, I believe house prices will stagnate for the foreseeable, if not drift slowly down. With fears inflation could rise again later this year, the chances of the Bank of England cutting the base rate in August are receding. The cost of living, mortgages and rents are just too high to support any house price growth. Until first-time buyers can afford to get on the ladder, that's unlikely to change.
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Ranald Mitchell
Director at bad credit mortgage specialists Charwin Mortgages
The property market has once again shown its resilience. Since the General Election result, things have picked up sharply. We've seen a spike in purchase enquiries driven by pent-up demand and hopes for an August Bank of England base rate cut. Although today's inflation figures have slashed the odds on an August cut to 25%, buyers are keen to grab the currently low mortgage rates before they possibly rebound. However, I suspect this surge has peaked for the year and will gradually taper off. Expect another wave in 2025, once people have got Christmas behind them and are ready for 'New Year, New Home!'
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Craig Fish
Director at Lodestone Mortgages
Despite the slight increase in house prices over the past 12 months, going forwards I now see prices stagnating, unless the Bank of England decide that it's time to cut the base rate. Despite an uptick in the number of mortgage enquiries, we are still seeing people holding off on fully committing and this is mainly driven by the constant mixed messages and moving of goalposts coming from Threadneedle Street.
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Andrew Montlake
Managing Director at Coreco
This data shows that there's still life in the property market. Things have picked up since the General Election result so that momentum is likely to feed through into prices in subsequent indices. Inflation staying at 2%, however, may mean the Bank of England leaves the base rate on hold in August.
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Dariusz Karpowicz
Director at Albion Financial Advice
The UK's housing market is proving resilient, strong and robust in these uncertain times. Despite scaremongering predictions of a 15%-30% crash, we've seen a steady 2.2% increase in average house prices. This steady growth is a positive sign for the property market and the wider economy. This resilience bodes well for both homeowners and investors as we navigate the rest of 2024.