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Economy grows 0.1% in November but "mood in the business community has been decimated"

ended 16. January 2025

Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in November 2024 largely because of a growth in services, following an unrevised fall of 0.1% in October 2024, according to official data published this morning. Real GDP is estimated to have shown no growth in the three months to November 2024, compared with the three months to August 2024. Newspage asked experts for their views, below.

16 responses from the Newspage community

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We are stuck in no growth Britain with no resignation and no growth Rachel. Hopefully the Bank of England take this into account when they meet next month as unfortunately it looks like it is down to them to kickstart the economy.
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For us, it was business as usual to the very end of 2025 as we saw a lot more activity than we usually would in the run-up to Christmas. The Budget has put some pressure on for completions by the end of March but I’m confident that won’t stop the momentum from April onwards. I truly believe people are coming to accept that we never know what’s round the corner with the government and less people are putting their lives on hold because of it.
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The UK economy grew just 0.1% in November 2024, with no growth over the three months to November, reflecting ongoing stagnation. The slight rebound in services is overshadowed by October’s decline and concerns over the impact of April’s National Insurance changes on businesses. With recession risks looming, the Bank of England may face pressure to cut the base rate in February to support activity, despite inflation concerns. Labour’s supposed “budget for growth” has yet to inspire confidence or deliver tangible results, highlighting the need for more immediate and effective fiscal measures to address the UK’s economic challenges.
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What a mess UK Plc is in. No real growth during the quarter and no plan for growth from the Chancellor do not bode well. The pressure is now on the MPC to make the important decisions. Ones that will get this country out of the mess that it is in financially. The only problem is their toolbox is limited.
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Stagnant Britain. The figures show the smallest of increases but there is no feel of growth on the streets. The government needs to take action to kickstart this economy and quickly.
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The UK economy eked out 0.1% growth in November, below expectations, compared with the 0.2% month-on-month growth expected by economists. Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.1% in October, following a decline of 0.1% in September and growth of 0.2% in August. Government borrowing costs are at a multi-decade high and big question marks remain over their fiscal plans amid the high tax burden on businesses with further potential headwinds such as the trade tariffs once President-elect Donald Trump takes office next week on 20 January. On top of this we have the fiscal and economic challenges that have dogged the Labour government and Chancellor Rachel Reeves since her now infamous 30 October budget. This puts the Bank of England in a bind. Do they lower interest rates at their next meeting on 6 February to rescue the moribund UK economy or do they focus on the resilient inflationary pressures in the economy?
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A meagre 0.1% GDP growth in November paints a stark picture of an economy barely keeping its head above water. Even with services making a positive contribution, this level of growth essentially amounts to economic stagnation. The absence of meaningful expansion across key indicators suggests the UK economy remains firmly stuck in neutral, highlighting the urgent need for substantial changes to reignite genuine growth and economic momentum.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
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Before anyone get’s excited by the 0.1% growth, as if you could, these figures don’t yet show any impact from the Budget. The next set of data will show if it really was a budget for growth, or as we all suspect a budget for recession.
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Fundamentally we are a country with zero growth and no real plan to kick-start our economy. The budget has truly affected everyone, employees are not immune to its effect as employers won't be able to grow their businesses and cannot take another hit on dwindling profit margins. Mortgage borrowers will bear the brunt of this again, with their ever-increasing monthly payments and no hope of future rate cuts for a long time.
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The UK economy edged up by 0.1% in November, a performance that might generously be described as "barely breathing." Services carried the day, just enough to erase October’s decline, but the broader picture remains stagnant—three-month growth is flat, and business confidence has taken a hammering.

This modest growth feels like applauding a marathon runner for tying their shoelaces. With experts describing the mood in the business community as "decimated," the question isn’t whether this is good news but whether it’s enough to lift businesses out of the mire of uncertainty.

What lies ahead—a steady recovery or more of the same? Over to you, journalists: is this a turning point or just another turn in circles?
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There was negligible growth in November and zero real growth during the quarter. It's hardly surprising given that Starmerism is based on rules with no vision. There is absolutely no policy that I can see that will provide the stimulus the country needs. There is no big idea beyond ‘we’re fixing what the Tories did’, but it no longer cuts it. The Bank of England may speed up their rate cuts as a result of this data, especially with the slightly softer CPI print this week. Equally, they might be hesitant since it was in fact a statistical anomaly due to the data being compiled on December 10th rather than later in the month. This could mean the next print actually shows higher inflation again, which will be a completely disastrous start for 2025.
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There are stats and there are figures but what ultimately counts is confidence and mood. Mood in the business community has been decimated due to current government policy. The business owners I speak to are asking why they should take risks, why carry on hiring, why invest when growth is not there, and why take on more fixed costs. They're also wondering whether their customers will accept further price rises. Confidence is in extremely short supply.
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Orders at Smallkind were up 50% in November and December ‘24 compared with the previous year. Our website traffic was roughly the same as the previous year so we had the same number of eyes on our products but a lot more people buying. After a really tough year it was much needed but still doesn’t leave the business in as strong a position as I would like. In 2023 a lot of our Christmas orders came in December so I had prepared for a peak in December but this time the Christmas season started in October and never slowed down. It only reinforces how hard it has become to predict what and when people will buy.
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It's hard to get excited about a measly 0.1% growth figure for November. The truth is, the economy is stuck in a stagflationary doom loop, and only radical measures will turn things around. To be fair, the government are trying to implement them quickly with changes to our moribund planning system, widescale use of AI etc. But in the short-term, the picture remains grim.
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The growth in November is welcome news, but 0.1% isn't cause for celebration or for complacency. The real test for businesses will come in April when the increase in employer's National Insurance takes effect. It will either increase costs, pushing up inflation, lead to job losses, reducing the amount of money we have to spend, or both. Either way, my expectation is that further growth in the short term feels unlikely, which will delay plans for hiring and investment. Especially as further tax increases are not being ruled out.

The last three months of the year are always some of our best, but the growth during this period was less than expected compared our results from the first half of 2024.
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This data precisely reflects my business activity in those months. September and October are usually very good but nobody was investing while the government constantly harped on how much worse shape the economy was in than they'd expected. Once the budget of doom was out the way and businesses knew where they stood pent up demand was released so November and December were very good. It's not an indication for optimism though, one of my manufacturing clients has gone into liquidation and everyone is getting rid of staff or pausing recruitment plans and putting up prices.