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Monthly property transactions - January

ended 29. February 2024

The ONS has just published the latest residential property transactions data, which showed that:

  • the provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK residential transactions in January 2024 is 82,000, 12% lower than January 2023 and 2% higher than December 2023
  • the provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK residential transactions in January 2024 is 68,090, 10% lower than January 2023 and 20% lower than December 2023

The report said: “Non-seasonally adjusted residential transactions fell by 20% in January 2024 relative to December 2023. This decline is typical for January, where monthly falls tend to be between 20% and 30%. In contrast, seasonally adjusted residential transactions in January showed the first month-on-month increase since August 2023, rising from 80,500 in December 2023, to 82,000 in January 2024. Despite the month-on-month increase, this is the lowest level of seasonally adjusted residential transactions in January since 2013.”

Newspage asked property and mortgage market experts for their views, which can be found below.

11 responses from the Newspage community

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Harps Garcha
Director at Brooklyns Financial
These figures don't paint a pretty picture, however they are historical. With the demand seen on the ground due to increased confidence in the mortgage market, we should see better data in the near future. To keep the momentum going, the rate increases we've had of late must end soon, in addition to some assitance for the property market in next week's Budget.
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Craig Fish
Director at Lodestone Mortgages
These numbers show the level of uncertainty in the property market right now, specifically higher rates affecting affordability. However, sentiment does seem to be improving and enquiries are increasing, although the recent rate turmoil has scuppered things slightly. Let's hope that Jeremy Hunt pulls the proverbial Easter Bunny out that hat and surprises us all with some incentives that are too good to refuse. A rate cut from the Bank of England would also reignite confidence in bricks and mortar.
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Justin Moy
Managing Director at EHF Mortgages
January is typically a slower time for home transactions anyway but with a significant reduction compared to January 2023, that just shows how far the property market has fallen in the past 12 months. Though there have been some some green shoots of recovery since the start of the year, serious intervention is needed to give the property market a boost and bring confidence back to homeowners. That can only come from the Bank of England cutting rates as soon as possible.
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Ranald Mitchell
Director at bad credit mortgage specialists Charwin Mortgages
While the figures don't look amazing, they reflect the tail end of last year. A forward glance to February 2024 is a much improved scenario, seeing a noticable uptick in buyer demand, agreed sales and more new listings. Much of this will be down to more sensible sales pricing, and there's little evidence of the crash that some had predicted. A newfound acceptance of what mortgage rates now look like will also be a factor in buyer demand now increasing, with those waiting for significantly better market conditions are realising that if they do, they'll probably never buy a property.
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Ben Perks
Managing Director at Orchard Financial Advisers
There are some signs that, as rates improved over the final quarter of 2023, transactions improved slightly. That's a win after a rollercoaster 2023. There will be a delay in the true figures and the next batch of data will hopefully make for better reading. Confidence is growing, slowly. Some stability in mortgage rates going forward would help improve the transaction figures greatly.
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Michelle Lawson
Director at Lawson Financial
Though these figures don't make for great reading, we have certainly seen an increase in activity during 2024. However, people are still concerned over the fluctuation of mortgage rates. We just need a common sense budget on 6th March that can reignite the economy and get money moving rather than the damp squib disaster from Liz Truss' short reign.
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Katy Eatenton
Mortgage & Protection Specialist at Eatenton Finance
There is a lag in this data so the numbers reflect the mortgage market mayhem of the summer of 2023. But the uptick compared to December shows the gradual increase in sentiment that started in the latter stages of 2023. February's figures will likely be more accurate.
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Darryl Dhoffer
Founder at The Mortgage Geezer
We saw higher than expected levels of mortgage enquiries in January of this year, due to the majority of lenders cutting rates. However, this has since subsided as we head into March, due to hikes in lenders' interests rates, due to volatility in the SWAP market. However with these estimated property transactions from ONS, showing a contrast and decline in numbers, it shows the turmoil the market is in at the minute, as these figures don't necessarily correlate with transaction business for January. Have to take ONS figures with a pinch of salt, and wait 6-7 months from now once the Land Registry details have been updated to get a true reflection. All eyes on the Spring Budget and if the Chancellor will prop up the property and mortgage market with some incentives, because stability is needed and soon.
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Gary Bush
Financial Adviser at MortgageShop.com
The fact January transactions were up 2% on December is a glimmer of good news. Right now, the UK is going through a mortgage rate crisis, after the mortgage rate war that started the year. Owing to the timescale to complete on property purchase transactions the data we all want to see is probably not going to appear until April/May 2024 if not later, depending on chains. ONS data is often a little harsh to read, lagging behind property data provided by Halifax and Nationwide.
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Graham Cox
Director at Bridging Hub
Completed transaction volumes in January were down by 12% on the same month last year, highlighting how higher mortgage rates have dampened demand. Due to the lag, these figures probably reflect transactions agreed in late summer/autumn 23 when rates were falling but still close to their summer peak.
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Akhil Mair
Director at Our Mortgage Broker
While it's positive to see a 2% increase in seasonally adjusted transactions from December 2023 to January 2024, the year-on-year declines of 12% in seasonally adjusted estimates and 10% in non-seasonally adjusted estimates raise some concerns.

These figures underscore the need for continued efforts by the government and mortgage lenders to stimulate activity in the property market throughout 2024. By implementing strategic initiatives and policies aimed at enhancing affordability, streamlining processes, and promoting investment, we can create a more conducive environment for buyers and sellers alike.

It's imperative that stakeholders collaborate closely to address the challenges highlighted by the data release. By doing so, we can unlock the full potential of the residential property market, fostering growth, stability, and prosperity for individuals and communities across the UK.