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Land Registry / HMRC house sales data

ended 31. October 2023

This morning, HMRC published its latest quarterly statistics on receipts and transactions for Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) where the transaction value is £40,000 or above. It revealed:

  • total SDLT transactions in Q3 2023 (July to September) were 15% higher than in the previous quarter, and 17% lower than in Q3 2022
  • the rise in transactions in this quarter follows falls in the previous two quarters
  • residential property transactions in Q3 2023 were 18% higher than in the previous quarter, and 18% lower than in Q3 2022
  • non-residential property transactions in Q3 2023 were 2% lower than in the previous quarter, and 4% lower than in Q3 2022

Brokers and property experts shared their views on the data, below.

11 responses from the Newspage community

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Stephen Perkins
Managing Director at Yellow Brick Mortgages
Compared to a year ago, transactions are down by almost a fifth, but the data is at least more positive than the previous quarter. But higher mortgage rates, weak consumer sentiment and house prices still not significantly reducing means completed sales figures are unlikely to improve materially until 2024. The next Bank of England base rate decision will greatly impact the speed of recovery.
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Riz Malik
Independent Financial Adviser at R3 Wealth
The rise in residential property transactions compared to the previous quarter will have come off a low base as the impact of the mini-Budget would still have been filtering through. The property market is done for 2023 and not even an exorcism could expel the pernicious spirits that currently possess it. Another rate hold coupled with a stamp duty incentive in the Autumn Statement may result in a dead cat bounce. But with more ghoulish economic data ahead, people will continue to sit on their hands.
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Graham Cox
Director at Bridging Hub
In our experience, property transactions, at least those purchased with mortgages, have slumped since June, and for understandable reasons. I doubt volumes will increase significantly until one of two things happens: house prices fall by at least 10% or the Government artificially stimulates demand through another one of its desperate and counter-productive mortgage schemes. The latter will be introduced in the Chancellor's autumn statement to avoid the former, purely for short-term electoral gain. First-time buyers should avoid being sucked in by such nonsense. It's a trap that will lead to overpaying.
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Jai Khandpur MRICS
Investment Manager at IP Global
While there is still enthusiasm for property in the UK, the volume of residential property transactions has experienced a decrease in pace as potential buyers adopt a more patient and discerning approach. Interest rates have definitely dampened demand but the limited supply of properties in the UK, coupled with growing challenges in construction, will provide a degree of support to prices. Consequently, a correction in house prices seems more likely than a complete collapse, primarily due to the scarcity of supply and new housing development.
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Craig Fish
Director at Lodestone Mortgages
During 2023, we've seen a steady drop in the number of housing transactions. The main reason is the rise in interest rates, making it more expensive to buy a house. This, along with the increasing cost of living and sudden spikes in mortgage rates, has made people hesitant to buy homes. This has led to weak consumer sentiment caused by the cost of living crisis and mortgage rate shock, alongside rapidly decreasing house prices. The economic uncertainty is having dire consequences on the housing market and I don't see it improving until at least early 2024.
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Darryl Dhoffer
Founder at The Mortgage Geezer
Residential property transactions have been far lower than usual in recent months. According to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), the number of new buyer enquiries fell for a seventh consecutive month in September 2023, while the number of agreed sales fell for a fifth consecutive month. This is the longest period of decline since the global financial crisis. I expect property transactions to pick up in early 2024, once the economic outlook becomes more certain and inflation begins to fall. However, it is important to note that the UK housing market is cyclical and there is always the possibility of a more prolonged downturn. There is more activity now compared to the summer, but it is still well below normal levels. This is likely due to the fact that people are waiting to see how the economy develops before making any major financial decisions.
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Ranald Mitchell
Director at bad credit mortgage specialists Charwin Mortgages
Property transactions have continued to be sluggish throughout 2023 although the turning point may be closer than many think. The shock of higher mortgage rates, worrying inflation and economic uncertainty have hit buyer confidence for six. With a healthy supply of property on the market, sellers are having to lower asking prices to sell. This, coupled with lenders dropping retail mortgage rates in an attempt to stimulate activity, means buyers are now starting to do the higher mortgage costs versus the lower property price maths. We could well be closer to seeing an improving market sooner rather than later.
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Justin Moy
Managing Director at EHF Mortgages
There has undoubtedly been less activity from buyers over the past few months, but there are some green shoots of hope from those who have managed their budgets and expectations, especially among first-time buyers. There are plenty of situations where a reduction in purchase price has more than balanced off the extra cost of the mortgage. Now we are starting to see the full effects of raised interest rates permeating borrowers' pockets, this will discourage owners from moving. When combined with high inflation and general low confidence, 2024 may be an opportunity for some, but hibernation for most.
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Gary Bush
Financial Adviser at MortgageShop.com
Property sale transactions are at the lowest level seen for a decade, the uptick that has been seen in late September and through October won't be registered by the Land Registry until at least January 2024 due to transaction timescales. The improvement, in October, in the lower cost of fixed-rate mortgages is helping improve the weaker consumer sentiment that has been evident during this year, if the UK bank and building society rate ware continues, to maintain their market shares, 2023 could end with a positive feel about it.
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Rhys Schofield
Brand Director at Peak Mortgages and Protection
It all feels pretty slow and steady but more or less in line with the more normal pre-Covid market where estate agents had to work hard to sell houses. As the dust continues to settle with rates, I'd expect the number of sales to pick up in the new year after the normal Christmas lull, which tends to start in mid-November.
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Clive Read
Owner at Goldmanread
New residential purchases have definitely been lower than normal throughout most of 2023. Buyers are concerned about rising interest rates and the perception that the property market is in freefall. It looks now as though prices may not continue to fall as far as first thought. Mortgage rates have started to stabilise and there seems to be a growing confidence amongst buyers as more return to the market. We have seen an uptick in purchase enquiries and our own view is that we may be seeing the worst of house price falls with an expectation of stabilisation, or even growth in prices, in the next 12 months.