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Halifax HPI: house prices remained stable in June but "rate war now unfolding could reinvigorate demand"

ended 05. July 2024

Average house prices were largely flat in June, down by just -0.2% on a monthly basis, according to the Halifax HPI published this morning. The annual rate of house price growth was unchanged from the previous month, at +1.6%. You can read the full report >> here <<.Newspage asked property and mortgage experts for their views, below, following Labour's General Election win.

11 responses from the Newspage community

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Harps Garcha
Director at Brooklyns Financial
Those expecting house prices to tumble dramatically will be sorely disappointed, much like how the Tories are feeling this morning. Despite mortgage affordability being a real headache for homeowners over the past couple of years, the lack of homes for sale has prevented house prices from taking a nosedive. With the election now behind us and lenders consistently cutting rates over the past few weeks, the outlook for the housing market in the latter half of 2024 and into 2025 looks promising. All eyes are now on Threadneedle Street to see what happens next.
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Craig Fish
Director at Lodestone Mortgages
I imagine all the doomsayers are feeling as defeated as the Conservatives with the news that house prices are still increasing on an annual basis. We are now starting to see both the Halifax and Nationwide indices start to converge and deliver the same verdict. The housing market remains resilient, mortgage rates are dropping and a sellers' market will soon return, so buyers beware and act quickly if you want to secure a property at a reasonable price. All eyes on the Bank of England meeting in August. The interest in this will be as vast as it was around this election.
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Ranald Mitchell
Director at bad credit mortgage specialists Charwin Mortgages
Recent figures from the Halifax House Price Index indicate a largely stagnant market throughout this year, but the rate war now unfolding could reinvigorate demand. This is likely to result in a gradual increase in property values during the remainder of 2024. Looking ahead, we anticipate a more significant acceleration in 2025 as the market gains momentum and the pent-up demand out there feeds through. This period presents a crucial window of opportunity for buyers to act before prices surge again. Savvy buyers should consider capitalising on current pricing to secure favourable property pricing ahead of a market upswing.
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Kim McGinley
Director & Specialist Broker at VIBE Finance
With the election dominating the news in June, it's no surprise that house prices remained stable last month. People's minds were elsewhere. With the election now behind us and the changes that will soon take effect, we can look forward to the property market hopefully not only gaining some level of stability but moving forwards with more momentum. The potential for a Bank of England base rate cut in the coming months could further support this stability, creating a more favourable environment for buyers and sellers alike.
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Emma Jones
Managing Director at Whenthebanksaysno.co.uk
Mortgage affordability is without doubt a major issue at present but things are starting to improve on that front. And given the number of headwinds facing it, the property market has been more resilient than many predicted. The past fortnight or so has seen a raft of cuts from major lenders, all of which are starting to add up and reduce the pressure on budgets, if only marginally for now. How today's General Election result will impact the market remains to be seen but all eyes are now on the next Bank of England rate decision in August. If that first rate cut comes, it could see a lot more activity in the second half of the year given the level of pent-up demand.
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Stephen Perkins
Managing Director at Yellow Brick Mortgages
House prices may have remained flat in June, but with the General Election now over and the first base rate reduction widely expected in August, there could be fireworks in the second half of the year. We could see a real surge in demand for property in the months ahead, which could see house prices start to rise in earnest.
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Riz Malik
Independent Financial Adviser at R3 Wealth
Labour’s win should breathe life into the housing market and we should start seeing momentum increase. We have already seen enquiry levels increase and, with a base rate cut on the cards, the next few months will set the tone for the remainder of the year.
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Andrew Montlake
Managing Director at Coreco
The property market has proved more resilient than many expected. A lack of supply has definitely played a role in that. Mortgage affordability remains a challenge but the steady flow of rate cuts from lenders this week alone is seeing things improve slightly on that front. The decisive win for the Labour Party overnight, and fact that the election is now over, could see demand for property pick up. If the Bank of England reduces the base rate at its next meeting, sentiment will improve as if a switch had been pressed and that could see house prices rise more than just modestly.
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Simon Bridgland
Director at Charwin Private Clients
Although the price growth declared by Halifax this morning is as flat as my kids' breakfast pancakes, the new Labour government could see the market start to rise throughout the second half of the year as sentiment improves. The new government's housing policy looks as flimsy as the pancakes, and just like the pancakes will undoubtedly be scrapped later on.
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David Stirling
Independent Financial Advisor at Mint Wealth
As Amanda Bryden from the Halifax says, the biggest issue facing many buyers and those coming off ultra-low fixed rates at present is affordability. With their landslide victory in the General Election, Labour have vowed to build more new homes and bring in incentives to help first-time buyers. Whilst the hopes of owning a home were further and further out of reach under the previous Government, Labour's win, coupled with the ongoing rate war between the banks and an almost inevitable reduction in the Bank of England base rate in August, means there is an optimistic outlook for the rest of 2024 in the housing market. Northern Ireland appears to be outperforming the rest of the UK, with prices rising by +4.0% on an annual basis last month. It's a solid place to build from during the second half of the year.
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Graham Cox
Director at Bridging Hub
House prices remain flat, but with mortgage rates already lower ahead of an expected base cut, it's possible property values could start creeping back up again in the second half of 2024. The Labour administration must now deliver; not just on their plans to build 1.5m new homes over the next parliament, but to protect tenants from unscrupulous landlords and carry out long overdue reform of planning laws.