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"The ECB has today potentially fired the starting pistol on UK rate reductions in the months ahead."

ended 06. June 2024

Following the ECB cutting rates by 0.25%, Newspage asked experts whether this could see the Bank of England follow suit at its meeting two weeks today, how  lenders could react and whether this is a positive for UK borrowers and the wider property market? Their views can be found below and will keep appearing until 14:00.

10 responses from the Newspage community

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The ECB has today potentially fired the starting pistol on UK rate reductions in the months ahead. Markets will now be salivating at the prospect that the UK will soon follow suit, but the Bank of England has proved to be more cautious and a change before the summer is still unlikely. Threadneedle Street may also be loathe to move before the General Election is out of the way for fear of being accused of not being independent, and they will want to see more concrete data that inflation in the UK is looking more likely to stay low rather than bounce again in the final quarter of the year. I hope the Bank will be brave and follow suit sooner rather than later as the country is crying out for an easing in policy.
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A drop in the base rate will kick the summer off nicely and is just what the UK's beleaguered borrowers need. I’m still not convinced the Bank of England will follow suit at the next meeting, but a cut is definitely coming. We may just have to wait a little longer.
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The ECB may just have given the Bank of England confidence to act at its next meeting a fortnight today and deliver us our first base rate cut since 2020. This would be a huge boost to the property market, buyers and also those borrowers refinancing. It could also provide a much-needed boost to the Conservatives if that first cut comes just ahead of polling day.
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This is extremely welcome and positive news. We would expect this to give more lenders confidence, but in particular the SWAP markets to which fixed rates are pegged and priced by mortgage lenders. Hopefully this will lead to further stability in the run up to the General Election.
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This first cut in five years from the ECB gives the Bank of England the licence to cut the base rate at its June meeting. This, in turn, will see swap rates edge down, resulting in lower mortgage rates. Elections need to be mutually exclusive to these decisions, ensuring that borrowers start to benefit immediately from the austerity measures of the past few years.
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Finally, a central bank has taken the leap to start reducing rates. Will the Bank of England play it safe and wait for the Fed to make a move, or will it take a chance and follow the ECB's lead? The whole mortgage industry is rooting for the latter, as some rate relief is well overdue from the sky-high rates we currently have. All eyes are now on Threadneedle Street.
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I'm not convinced that the Bank of England will follow the ECB's decision to cut rates. There are far too many unknowns, and the upcoming General Election and mixed signals from the UK economy add to the uncertainty. While the ECB’s move to ease monetary policy is a positive sign for taming inflation, the Bank of England might take a more cautious approach given the current economic climate and political landscape. If the Bank of England does decide to cut rates, it could potentially benefit UK borrowers by making mortgages more affordable, sparking some much-needed activity in the property market. However, lenders might initially react with caution, adjusting their rates more gradually as they assess the broader economic impacts. For the wider property market, a rate cut would likely be welcomed as it could improve buyer sentiment and affordability. But for now, it’s a waiting game to see how the Bank of England will respond and whether they’ll join the ECB in easing monetary policy.
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Every cloud has a silver lining and this could be just the impetus that those on Threadneedle Street need to start the long overdue and eagerly anticipated first rate cut. Let's hope that this cloud doesn't rain further misery on the overstretched households and business up and down the UK, though I fear that the uncertainty surrounding the election may mean we have to hold our breath until August.
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With inflation slowly falling and sentiment in the UK leaning towards a cut at the next meeting, could this be the right time for the MPC to grow some balls and deliver the decision we all want? With the ECB decision today I feel there will be pressure on the MPC to follow suit, given that confidence in the market is driving forward regardless of the election campaign. We may even see some lenders start to reprice downwards.
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It has been widely predicted for weeks that the ECB would reduce rates today, the question mark was over how much. 0.25% is just a little teaser, but a step in the right direction nonetheless, and is the first domino which will push the FED and, in turn, the Bank of England, to make a similar move over the coming months.