Will the Bank of England wait until May to make a base rate cut?

Inflation has been like a runaway horse, galloping through the streets, prices skyrocketing higher than the Burj Khalifa. To tame the wild stallion the Bank of England's been usin' the reins of interest rates to slow the beast down. They've been crankin' those rates tighter than Scrooge's grip on a ledger, makin' it dearer to borrow a bob or two.
Now, the good news is, the horse ain't quite as wild as it was. Inflation's takin' a breather, prices aren't gallopin' quite so fast. But the Bank Of England isn't going to pat themselves on the back just yet. They're like the Grinch guardin' his territory – cautious, cunning, waitin' for the right moment to ease up. If the Stallion trots back to a gentle canter like it looks like it is doing, maybe we'll see a rate cut next spring, like a fresh bloom of hope in the economic wasteland. But if it throws a tantrum and rears up again, the bank might keep that leash tight 'til autumn, maybe even winter.

With headline inflation now below 4% there will be extra pressure on the Bank of England to react quicker, not only to help borrowers with their mortgages but also businesses that need to fund their own improvements and expansion plans. The BofE will be worried about the effect of cheaper rates and how that will manifest into increased spending, however, if we don't see that improvement quickly enough, a recession will hit the UK and will bring everything to a halt. Small regular improvements in base rate will see us through the worst of the situation, leaving it too long will eventually mean larger cuts in rates that are not good for anyone.

Given that we only have 2 MPC decisions on 1st February and 21st March before the proposed May one, I doubt that the February meeting will result in a cut but would say it is highly likely for March and almost definite for May. That said, the Bank of England have been quite rogue so anything could happen! Given their track record, not sure they would see the obvious if it jumped out in front of them we can but hope!

Before today's inflation data, I would have agreed with this commentary, however, with the better-than-expected data there is a strong possibility that the first cut could now be seen in March. if growth is slowing, then the fear of recession could be just the trigger that is needed to make that cut.

I really couldn't care less what the Bank of England does next, they have distanced themselves from the UK public so far that they need one of Elon Musk's spaceships to travel to their MPC meetings. Without the help of the BOE, the UK Swap rate looks brighter and as I predicted earlier this year, we are seeing swap rates in the 3% range, this is what is important and this is what gives me hope for 2024. One has to wonder if somebody who is paid £597520 per annum has the capacity to understand the pain inflicted on the UK public with these torturous rate increases. I do however see a rate reduction in march 2024 as a near god damn certainty.