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What does Jeremy Hunt need to do to increase confidence in the economy?

Journalist: Jon King, Daily Express Online

ended 01. November 2023

More businesses have gone bust in England and Wales than at any time since 2009.

Monthly real GDP is estimated to have grown by a measly 0.2 percent in August, after a 0.6 percent fall in July.

Jeremy Hunt will deliver the Autumn Statement on November 22.

How confident are you feeling about the economy? What does the Chancellor need to include in the Autumn Statement to increase confidence in the economy?

The Daily Express website is looking for strong views in up to three paragraphs.

 

 

10 responses from the Newspage community

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So the Autumn Statement is the mechanism for the government to start doing something this year, welcome to the chaos. Here are a few reminders of what they should have been doing this year. Set out a clear plan for reducing inflation, which is at a 40-year high. Just letting the Bank of England tackle the inflation reins alone is not working. Support local businesses and consumers through the cost of living crisis, extend the energy bill support scheme, temporarily reduce corporation tax. This would encourage businesses to invest in the UK and create jobs. Abolish stamp duty for "downsizers", which will kick-start the housing market. Providing more support for SMEs who are the backbone of the UK economy, and stop singing to the hymnsheet of the large corporates. If the Government wants to stave off recession then implement some of these changes, or if it's inevitable for a recession, then stop prolonging it. Instead, enter it, and then build again, or otherwise move aside.
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Reduce tax. Particularly, reduce corporation tax to encourage people to innovate and start their own businesses. 26% effective tax, plus withdrawing it, amounts to 40%-50% tax for some micro and small businesses. Hunt needs to reverse the corporation tax increase imposed, or at the very least change the profit level at which it should be paid. Gordon Brown introduced the 10% tax rate, later reduced to 0% and then increased significantly. Hunt needs to do something dramatic like this, as there are a lot of other places in the world where innovators can establish a business and pay less tax.
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Lurching from one crisis to another has left world economies reeling, highlighting our co-dependencies and exposing our weaknesses. We’ve lost the essence of robust fiscal planning and replaced it with fiscal fire-fighting. There needs to be a comprehensive approach to restore confidence and pave the way for a resilient economic rebound. We must implement measures to reduce our exposure to the influence and risks of global events. At this stage, it’s like asking the Chancellor to pull a rabbit out of the hat. A focus on job creation, training and adapting to evolving industries is paramount to ensuring long-term economic stability. Embracing innovation and sustainability can steer us towards a more promising future. Achieving this against a backdrop of an increased burden on public services, spiralling domestic debt and a decreased Treasury purse is going to take tough choices.
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The best thing Jeremy Hunt can do for the UK economy is to hold his nerve. Businesses must be allowed to fail. Too many UK firms have grown complacent over the past 15 years, getting hooked on cheap money and a growing sense of affluence in consumers, which has largely been paid for on credit. As small business owners, no one is coming to save us. If we're to survive, and create a robust UK economy that will outlast the current incumbent of No. 11, it's up to us to adapt to the situation as it is, not how we wish it was.
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To say Liz Truzz was right might be a stretch, but Jeremy Hunt has done equal damage to the economy by stifling growth by hiking up business and personal taxes. The status quo cannot continue as not only will we not have a dynamic thriving economy if we don’t cut taxes, but we will have a cumbersome, flat line economy with no improvement in productivity and an increasing debt yield with less to spend on public services. This self-inflicted mess won’t be sorted out by an unimaginative Chancellor, it needs a General Election.
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There needs to be some new initiatives to kick start the housing market out of its current slumber. That doesn’t mean another stamp duty holiday or extension of the redundant mortgage guarantee scheme. Ideally this would be something boosting deposits or affordability. Perhaps something similar to the Help to Buy equity share scheme used previously on new builds being available to a lesser degree on all homes under a certain threshold. Sadly initiative is lacking in the current government and Jeremy Hunt will not be filling anyone with confidence.
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Hunt faces a significant challenge in reassuring investors and the public about the strength of his economic policies. Marred by a surge in business bankruptcies, and a slump in GDP growth, the forecasts don't look pretty. With global inflation and high national debt levels, the task of reinvigorating the economy is not straightforward. The previous Budget, largely unfunded, has left a fiscal gap that needs to be addressed. Investors and analysts are calling for a balanced approach, which sadly entails cutting public spending. Nevertheless, there is an acknowledgement that redistributive policies, such as taking from the rich and giving to the poor, will be viewed favourably by the bond market. Hunt's commitment to fund labour supply measures, such as childcare support and welfare changes is going to be promising in addressing key issues that impact workforce participation. Separately, a commitment to full expensing of capital expenditure for 3 years will surely help stimulate growth.
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An early election would help, although it's highly unlikely. The PM and Ministers are unable and unwilling to move forward with any long-term plans as they are worried about their short-term political futures.
Aside from that, there should be no tax cuts in this budget. Government borrowing costs have shot up with higher interest rates and the number one priority should be getting inflation down to 2%. This will help rates go down, instil confidence and pave the way for an eventual recovery. If they can do this by this time next year, their electoral chances may well have improved.
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The Chancellor really needs to look at immediate ways to help otherwise healthy businesses that are suffering from lack of liquidity due to tightening credit processes and increased delays in payments from debtors. HMRC would be a good starting point. We are hearing from our clients that HMRC have very much toughened their stance on overdue tax bills. Where previously they have been very accommodating with payment plans, we are now hearing of very little flexibility being offered. The fact we are hearing this from a range of clients suggests that someone may be leaning on HMRC to increase taxes received. If HMRC were the collection arm of a business we would say that this was a classic sign that the business was struggling. It is in no one's interest to force otherwise viable businesses to fail when accommodation would allow them to ride the storm.
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Quit. Seriously, quit. There is absolutely nothing that the Chancellor could do that would give me confidence that the economy under his leadership could survive let alone thrive. The small business world is imploding and instead of innovative ways of bringing back the high street and driving economy to the local areas we are literally collapsing under the weight of his lack of skill and ingenuity. Quit and be done, and let someone else take the reins.