HMRC property transactions: “The housing market is moving sideways while politicians play guessing games"

“THE housing market is moving sideways while politicians play guessing games with property taxes”, one expert has said following new data from HMRC showing the number of seasonally adjusted UK residential property transactions in August 2025 was 93,630, 2% higher than August 2024 but 2% lower than July 2025. Another expert said the market is “ambling along rather than firing on all cylinders”.

Omer Mehmet, Managing Director at Welling-based Trinity Finance, said the market is running on empty due to Budget uncertainty: “The housing market is moving sideways while politicians play guessing games with property taxes. A 2% rise on last year looks good on paper, but it masks a market running on fumes.

"Buyers aren’t holding back because of rates alone, it’s the policy vacuum that’s paralysing decisions. Until the Chancellor stops drip-feeding rumours, we’ll see stagnation dressed up as stability.”

Ranald Mitchell, Director at Norwich-based Charwin Mortgages, said while activity may not be strong, it's holding up: “Today’s HMRC data shows a housing market still ticking along, but with a touch of summer slowdown.

"Transactions in August dipped slightly compared to July but remain above last year’s levels, a sign that confidence hasn’t vanished despite economic headwinds and the delayed budget. Overall, the market feels steady rather than spectacular, with activity holding up better than many feared.”

Emma Jones, Managing Director at Runcorn-based Whenthebanksaysno.co.uk, said Budget unknowns could further scupper transaction levels: "The summer was definitely a tale of two halves. The early summer was relatively busy but the late summer and September have seen caution emerge ahead of the Autumn Budget. This data is therefore a pretty accurate depiction of the property market right now.

“It's a market that is ambling along rather than firing on all cylinders. Mortgage approvals and transaction levels could dip further between now and November as Budget uncertainty grips the nation, although lenders are doing their level best to keep the market moving.”

But Babek Ismayil, CEO at homebuying platform OneDome, said more people are alive to the fact that it's a buyers' market, which could maintain momentum in the market: “There was a fair amount of momentum in the spring and summer but that appears to have dwindled slightly in August.

"With the Budget looming, transaction levels will theoretically stay relatively muted but at the same time more and more people are waking up to the fact that it's a strong buyers' market at present.

"Buyers seeking out a bargain could actually see transaction levels edge up slightly in the months ahead.”

Daniel Hobbs, CEO at Rayleigh-based New Leaf Distribution, said 2025 has been a bit of a damp squib: "2025 hasn't been the year that many in the property industry had hoped for. With household finances under pressure and the wider economy facing no end of headwinds, the property market lacks fireworks.

"Affordability is still stretched and confidence among borrowers is not exactly high, even though it's a buyers' market. It could be a challenging two months ahead as many people may choose to batten down the hatches ahead of the Budget."

HMRC also revealed that the seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK non-residential transactions in August 2025 was 9,910, 2% lower than August 2024 and 3% lower than July 2025.