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The UK economy - March 2022

ended 11. May 2022

The latest GDP data is being published on Thursday at 07:00. This will drive the news agenda for most of the day and into Friday so is a great opportunity for you to talk about how the economy's feeling for you right now. So a few Qs:

  • How's the economy feeling for you right now?
  • What are the main challenges you're facing (take your pick from the rising cost of pretty much everything)?
  • Are you more or less confident now than you were during the pandemic, and why?
  • Is the Government doing enough to support the economy, and does it understand the pressure people and businesses are under?

As ever, no need for an essay. 2-3 paragraphs max will do it. Journalists like soundbites, not War and Peace!

22 responses from the Newspage community

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Sandra Wilson
Owner/Director at Cottrell Moore Limited
"The UK economy is starting to feel like a theatre of cruelty. Whether you're a pessimist or an optimist, the reality is the same: we are all paying out more and most of us aren't earning more. The economic sea is getting extremely choppy and many people will go overboard if the Government and businesses alike do not take action immediately. As a small business owner with staff to support and a family to look after we have responsibilities, and part of that is ensuring people know how to prepare for the storm ahead and how to ride it out. This is especially the case given that so many people are still feeling the effects of the pandemic. Sadly I think we need to prepare for even worse to come, with inflation at 10% and probably higher by the end of the year. However, as long as we get prepared and take actions now to limit the damage, most businesses will hopefully weather the powerful storm that lies ahead."
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Tara Squibb
Owner at Tara Squibb Ceramics
"For many small businesses like mine, the economy feels like walking a tightrope in a tornado. We're constantly struggling to maintain our balance and not fall. Everything to do with producing ceramics has risen in price, from materials to postage, and even Elon Musk would struggle to cover the cost of firing a kiln on a prepayment meter. I'm feeling less confident as time goes on, with everything increasing in price and another energy price hike looming later this year. The government isn't supporting people and businesses, seemingly having a total lack of understanding of the pressures we are all facing. The priorities of this Government are totally unfathomable. Meanwhile, many small businesses are sinking fathoms deep."
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Claire Smith
Jewellery Designer at Cloudy Lemonade Jewellery
"Running a business is exceptionally tough right now. Everyone is cutting back on non-essential spending and jewellery, the sector I work in, is at the bottom of the pile. During the pandemic my jewellery sales rocketed. People wanted to spread a little happiness, sending gifts to loved ones they couldn't see and treating themselves. Now, it feels like money is at the forefront of everyone's minds, myself included, and it's totally understandable. April was my weakest ever month for sales since launching nearly three years ago. It is only by offering 25% off my pieces that I have seen a pick up in sales. My prices are going down but postage and raw material costs are all going up. Does the government realise what is happening to small independent businesses? I worry about how many will survive this next year."
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Laura-Jayne Grey
Owner at Small Dog Silver
"As the owner of a small jewellery business, I’m feeling the pinch in multiple ways. I'm experiencing a downturn in sales at the exact same time as material costs and overheads are rising, and it’s an extremely uncomfortable position to be in. Sales are at an all-time low, with people really not having the disposable income to spend on luxuries. I don’t see the current slump facing small independent creative businesses ending any time soon. I hope that we’ll still be able to carry on and survive into 2023 and beyond."
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Fiona Bowen
Artist at Silver Moon Art
"I am a fledgling business, and only got started during lockdown after being made redundant when the law firm I worked for went under. Right now, in the current economic climate, it feels like a non-starter for me since people simply don’t have disposable income, and my products are non-essentials. I am certainly less confident, now, than I was when I first started as a business, and that was during the pandemic. And because I am single and have to have a regular full-time income, my job keeps me away from the time I want to spend exploring and expanding the potential of my upcycling art products. I am finding it a huge challenge, right now, since I cannot spend any quality time or money on marketing, networking, or even working on the projects I want to work on to take me to the next level. Any support the government gives to the economy only ever translates as money to the banks. It rarely finds its way to people like me."
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Seena Gosrani
Owner / Goldsmith at Bottlebee
"The current financial climate for small businesses cannot be sustained. As an independent goldsmith, I have found the raw metal prices for gold and silver have increased at an eye-wateringly high rate. All my suppliers have increased their prices as they need to make a profit. This is passed onto the smaller business, which in turn has to be passed onto the customer. People need to eat and keep warm to live, but they don't need luxury items like the jewellery I make. So how are small businesses like mine expected to survive?"
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Editor
Scott Gallacher
Director at Rowley Turton
"Currently, things look genuinely quite bleak. The Bank of England's obsession with inflation, and increasing interest rates to try and control it, means that hard-working families are being hit with higher mortgage bills at the same time they are also seeing their energy bills go through the roof. The cutbacks that those families will now need to make will then impact others in terms of fewer goods and services being bought and sold. This might help control inflation but I'm not sure this level of economic pain is something anyone needs after two years of a pandemic. As an employer, the main challenge we are facing is the current labour shortage we are seeing. If we can't hire good staff, this will limit our ability to grow the business. And, it's this labour shortage, that could arguably be the bigger problem for the UK long-term as the so-called demographic time bomb appears now to be starting to go off."
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Premium
Ed Rimmer
CEO at Time Finance
"The economic outlook is extremely concerning as UK businesses grapple with the latest interest rate hike, rising costs, inflation, supply chain issues, and forecasts of a 2022 recession. While the past two years have made businesses more resilient to setbacks, this resilience is limited. According to our research, half of businesses are concerned about their turnover and, as a result, are raising their own costs, cutting back on investment and laying off workers. If viable businesses do not receive the assistance they urgently require from the government, it will be a case of insolvency, not affordability. Businesses power our economy by generating new wealth, driving innovation and creating new jobs. Without adequate support, this will only serve to stifle economic growth and productivity even further. The Chancellor is going to have an even bigger job on his hands come the autumn budget if something isn’t done now to address these challenges."
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Anna Hamill
Founder at And Hope Designs
"I’m feeling the pinch from both ends here. Materials and business costs are rising fast, and customers are also feeling the increase in cost for all essentials so aren’t shopping for non-essentials, such as birthday cards and commissioned art, which is what I specialise in. The pandemic was actually a really great time for sales of greetings card and gifts that could be sent in the post. Sales have plummeted in 2022 with lifting of restrictions, war in Ukraine and the cost of living crisis."
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Rachel Hayward
MD at Ask the Chameleon
"Self-employment requires the hide of a rhino, and right now, there are challenges everywhere. I'm just trying to keep on going. I am fully aware that, as a consultant, I am not an essential to any business, but I keep a keen eye on my numbers. This storm isn't going anywhere soon, so woman the stations. For the charity that I am chair of, Annabel's Angels, the uncertainty amongst small businesses and the economy generally, married with a surge in the cost of living, is impacting us from all directions. Our fundraising was significantly impacted during Covid, as all our income comes from sporting and community events. Giving a small grant to families going through treatment for cancer, our applications have doubled, and this year already seems to be following suit. As costs rise and income falls, we can only expect a further surge in people needing our help, and in return we need to once again hope that our local community can help us to fund that support. To say it's tough is an understatement."
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Mariona Bolohan
Co-Founder at Lotuly
"April was the worst month for our business for well over a year. The rising cost of absolutely everything has had a negative impact on our business because the majority of our existing and prospective clients have lowered their marketing budgets in order to keep afloat. This has obviously had a domino effect on businesses like ours, who find we're losing monthly retainers with current clients or losing on price when onboarding new clients due to budget cuts within their marketing department, or international advertising stopped, therefore reducing the needs for translation services. We've had better months during the pandemic and we were hopeful that some kind of support was going to come through. Now we know there isn't going to be much help for small business owners like myself. I would love to see some kind of support/recovery plan for small company directors like myself to be able to get back on our feet."
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Julia Usher
Managing Director at Ashes Memorial Jewellery
"As a small manufacturing and ecommerce jewellery business, rising inflation and the cost of living crisis are of great concern. My business is very much in the luxury spend category. With rising energy, food and fuel prices, this has inevitably put a great deal of pressure on most people in the UK. Purse strings are tightened and understandably luxury spend has been put on the back burner. For us the soaring price of precious metals is of great concern teamed with the increasing lack of consumer confidence. We have also seen a huge increase in our electricity bill to run the machines in our workshop. I thought that the pandemic was challenging for businesses but what is currently happening with the economy is worse and is certainly making myself and other SME business owners fearful of what lies ahead of us in 2022. With rising inflation and the ever tightening grip of the cost of living crisis business confidence is certainly sinking to an all-time low.  The government needs to act now to implement an emergency plan of action to support the economy though this unprecedented economic time."
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Lucinda O'Reilly
Director at The International Trade Consultancy
"April was my worst month for revenue since I started the business in May 2021. Like many business owners, I'm constantly asking myself whether I should double down on marketing (by using more of my savings) or start seriously applying for jobs. I'm extremely stubborn so I won't give up yet, as I know there's a need for my expertise. It's hard to stay optimistic though when the economy is clearly about to hit a very rocky patch."
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Rhys Schofield
Brand Director at Peak Mortgages and Protection
"It's rough out there. The reality is that real people are feeling the pinch every time they pay a utility bill or fill up the petrol tank. Chuck in the fact that every week that goes by we're telling mortgage customers that rates are higher, so they'll be paying the bank £50 a month more than planned, and you wonder how it's going to pan out. I just don't get the impression the government has any ideas about how to deal with the problems we're facing. All that money wasted on test and trace (£37 Billion or £550.43 per UK resident) and dodgy PPE from their chums sure would be handy right now to make normal people's lives easier."
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Kia Simpson
Co-Founder at Moonie
"The government doesn't understand the pressure independent businesses are currently under. It really is make or break time. The increased cost of living has had a huge impact on consumer spending. Our customers are having to decide between price and quality. However, it's during difficult times like this that great businesses are formed. 2022 has already taught us so many powerful lessons. Despite the squeeze on household spend, it's crucial for small businesses to create purposeful products and push forward a sustainable agenda. Now is the time for businesses to gain market share and come out of this as winners."
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Dr Diennet
MD at Diet Institute.uk
"The UK economy feels like a 7am choked up Austin Mini from the 1970s trying to warm up after a particularly cold night. The engine is making a lot of noise but there's not much power. The main challenges we are facing in the healthcare industry is finding enough employees to fill the customer service gap and delivery of our products being completely delayed by the ongoing "new international logistics environment" after Brexit, pandemic and now war. I am less confident of continued growth in 2022 and beyond with small businesses already having been pummelled since 2020. So much for the roaring 20s, all we're going to get is a whimper at this rate. I think the Government is doing as much as it thinks it can to support a downward trend amid high inflationary pressure, but that they could still be trying harder to alleviate the stresses placed on small businesses such as implementing commercial tenancy price controls and filling up our high streets with open shops again."
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Owner. Creator at Megaeras realm
Sales are down. Of my 12 current orders only 2 are uk, rest are usa and eu. Of two fairs done this year im down 180 quid of expected sales, barely broke even. No one has spare money to buy fun items, which has knock on effect to me not having enough for my bills let alone anytjing else. This is a vicious circle of decline
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Marcus Wright
Managing Director at Bolton Business Finance
"We are in for a rough few years and rather than an economic bounceback after Covid, it looks like we could be heading for a recession. Many of the small businesses I speak to are worried about the rising cost of pretty much everything. They are then raising their prices to maintain profitability and this all contributes to inflation. My guess would be early 2023 we enter an 'official' recession."
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Dave Kelly
Co-founder at Kellys Butchers
"Right now, it feels like the UK economy is headed for the slaughterhouse. Inflation, soaring energy bills, tax and interest rate rises are crippling households around the country, and it feels like the Government is watching on and doing nothing. For us, sales are still holding up for now but we are seeing slightly more people order cheaper cuts. We're probably being helped by the fact that more people are choosing to stay in than go out, as it's much cheaper and people can afford to drink and eat better in their own homes rather than in restaurants. An expensive cut of meat from a butcher and a bottle of wine from the supermarket is still significantly cheaper than eating out in a restaurant and for now that's supporting our sales. However, we're acutely aware of the financial pressures people are facing and will do our best to support our customers in the tough months ahead."
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Abby Avery
Owner at Little Moonbeam Children's Boutique
As a personalised baby and children's clothing business, my target market is young families, and with a young family myself, I know exactly how impossible this situation is. Often with one parent unable to work or on maternity leave, rising childcare costs and household bills that continue to rise feel suffocating. It's too daunting to open letters that notify us of yet another price hike when their are mouths to feed and school holidays approaching. On the business side, suppliers are increasing their prices and the costs are being passed onto the customer, yet I desperately try to absorb them. As much as new Mums want everything personalised to display the name they've spent the past nine months obsessing over, they instead need to think about the necessities - and aren't there so many things to buy for new babies!? Parents are struggling to put food on the table so small businesses like mine are nothing more than an 'Instagram vs Reality' unachievable luxury.
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Dr Jackie Mulligan
Founder at ShopAppy
"The Queen's speech did little to fuel confidence in the economy and this data adds to my concerns. Like many businesses on our platform, we are looking for Government action to help alleviate the strains. Things like a windfall tax on the energy companies are an obvious place to start. Hardest hit are family businesses who employ over 14 million people and support a whole ecosystem that is feeling increasingly fragile with businesses being doubly hit in their own household and work budgets. We are urging people with less to spend to at least spend wisely by shopping locally. But it continues to feel very much like we are 'alone together' facing the second wall of a hurricane after the ravages of Covid."
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Barry Whitehouse
Owner / Tutor at The Artery
"We have just had one of our worst weeks since the previous recession. Total takings for the week didn't even cover the wages of the staff. Loss of footfall and empty streets makes creating a sale or greeting a customer impossible. There is nobody around. Online sales have fallen sharply as everyone has one eye on their energy bills to see what money is left, and there is suddenly a drop in enquiries for shop items and our classes. Personally, the rising fuel cost and town centre parking charges are costing me £10 a day before I even open the front door. I am really worried. My savings have gone and I have nothing left to keep the business afloat without sales and footfall. I will not survive many more weeks like this."