Jobs numbers "could get a lot worse, especially with no credible economic plan in place"

THE UK unemployment rate was estimated at 4.7% in May to July 2025, up in the latest quarter and above estimates of a year ago, accoding to official data published this morning. Staff numbers and vacancies were down. Business owners said “welcome to Bleak Britain” and that “the UK jobs market is on the brink”, while a recruiter said the numbers paint “a grim picture of the state the UK economy is in”.

Estimates for payrolled employees in the UK fell by 142,000 (0.5%) between July 2024 and July 2025, and by 6,000 (0.0%) between June 2025 and July 2025. 

When looking at May to July 2025, payrolled employees fell by 125,000 (0.4%) over the year, and by 51,000 (0.2%) over the quarter.

The early estimate of payrolled employees for August 2025 decreased by 127,000 (0.4%) on the year, and by 8,000 (0.0%) on the month, to 30.3 million. 

The estimated number of vacancies in the UK fell by 10,000 (1.4%) on the quarter, to 728,000, in June to August 2025. This is the 38th consecutive period where vacancy numbers have dropped compared with the previous three months, with vacancies decreasing in 9 of the 18 industry sectors.

Annual growth in employees' average earnings in Great Britain for regular earnings (excluding bonuses) was 4.8%, and for total earnings (including bonuses) was 4.7% in May to July 2025. 

Employment in the public sector was estimated at 6.17 million in June 2025, an increase of 17,000 (0.3%) compared with March 2025, and an increase of 75,000 (1.2%) compared with June 2024.  

Liz McKeown, ONS Director of Economic Statistics, said: “The labour market continues to cool, with the number of people on payroll falling again, while firms also told us there were fewer jobs in the latest period. 

"This weakness is reflected in a slight increase on the quarter in the unemployment rate. The number of vacancies also fell on the quarter, though the rate of decline appears to be slowing.

“Wage growth excluding bonuses edged down further in cash terms, though it remains strong by historic standards.”

Business owners and job market experts were concerned by the data.

Mary Maguire, Managing Director at Derby-based Astute Recruitment, said: "38 periods of declining private sector jobs paints a grim picture of the state the UK economy is in. Labour is not responsible for all of it but they have not improved things at all since last summer.

“How can these 'sums' add up to a successful job market for the UK's workers and SME businesses? There is a serious disconnect between the private sector, which is buckling, and the public sector, which appears relatively robust.”

Riz Malik, Director at Southend-on-Sea-based R3 Wealth, is worried there is no plan in place: “As the economy continues to flatline, these figures could get a lot worse, especially with no credible economic plan in place. The country continues to flatline and we wonder why there is so much discontent.”

Ben Perks, Managing Director at Stourbridge-based Orchard Financial Advisers commented: “Welcome to Bleak Britain. Unfortunately, this data is not surprising and it looks like job opportunities could slide further into the abyss in 2026 and beyond.”

Eamonn Prendergast, Chartered Financial Adviser at Bromley-based Palantir Financial Planning Ltd, added: "The UK jobs market is on the brink. Unemployment is up, vacancies are down. The latest data show a labour market losing momentum. Unemployment is up to 4.7%, vacancies have fallen for the 38th month in a row, and payrolled employees are down by over 140,000 in a year.

"While wages are still rising, real pay gains are wafer-thin once inflation is stripped out. For households, the cost-of-living squeeze hasn’t gone away, and for businesses, the weaker jobs market signals lower confidence.

"Flat growth, falling vacancies and rising job losses are a stark warning that the UK economy is stuck in the slow lane."

Meanwhile, Michelle Lawson, Director at Fareham-based Lawson Financial, said the PM needs to consider his position: "Another day and another nail in Labour’s coffin. People voted for change, not an economic disaster. The damage is already done and now almost impossible for Labour to fix.

“If you love something enough you have to let it go. does Keir Starmer love the UK enough to admit defeat before he harms it more?”

Scott Gallacher, Director at Leicester-based Rowley Turton, said the data doesn't come as a surprise: "These figures should come as no surprise to anyone outside the Westminster bubble. It’s not just ministers and advisers losing their jobs — staff numbers and vacancies are falling across the board.

“On the surface, rising real wages look like good news. But without matching productivity gains — which remain absent — higher pay simply makes UK businesses less competitive. That risks storing up bigger problems for the economy further down the line.”