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Sonia swap rate slide continues: "Next week could be one of the best weeks in years on the mortgage front"

Journalist: Riz Malik

ended 04. April 2025

Sonia swap rates have declined further, and significantly so, on the second day after Trump's Liberation Day speech and tariff announcement. Given the sizeable drops, Newspage asked brokers when they think lenders will react by reducing their fixed rate pricing — and what their advice to consumers is at the moment.

7 responses from the Newspage community

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If the market volatility persists, lenders may be forced to reprice quickly, with some potentially slashing fixed rates as early as next week. Trump's latest moves may have unintentionally created a short-term opportunity for UK borrowers, particularly if the global fallout deepens. With China already retaliating and others likely to follow, the ripple effect could drive swap rates down a lot more and bring a wave of sharper mortgage pricing. Next week could be one of the best weeks in years on the mortgage front.
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The rate setters within the banks will be licking their lips as we head into the weekend. Better rates should drop before next week is out.
Given the uncertain economic environment, these reductions could be a flash in the pan moment, so borrowers need to be ready to pounce before they rise again.
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Lenders are quick to act when markets are increasing but the complete opposite when lending rates are improving. They will want to see the conditions improving for a period of time and that it's not just a knee jerk reaction to Trump's tariffs. The hope among mortgage holders will be that the level of reductions continues at least in the shorter term; this will allow mortgage lenders to start reducing the rates that they offer, which will be welcomed in a month where everyone's bills have been increased.
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Whilst swap rates are looking very appetising for mortgage clients, lenders might be wise to err on thre side of caution. If the mortgage industry has taught us anything in the past five years, it is that it can be one of the most volatile industries in the UK. Being a mortgage advisor during this period has been like going 10 rounds with Mike Tyson in his prime and most brokers feel battered and bruised after the fight. Covid, a fuel crisis, the cost of living crisis, energy crisis and the Russia/Ukraine war has completely taken its toll on all of us and, with Donald Trump seemingly trying to end the latter, he looks like he is starting another Global War. Even though it's an economic war and not an arms war, I think lenders will be wary of setting much reduced fixed rates just yet.
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Trump may be causing carnage in the markets but borrowers could be set to reap the benefits in the days and weeks ahead. Given the direction swap rates are headed in, there's every chance some of the major lenders might make a move.
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With the way swap rates are falling, next week could be an extremely positive one for borrowers. If one lenders makes a move, others are likely to follow. Lower mortgage rates could be at least one piece of good news for consumers in an otherwise awful April.
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If SWAP rates continue to fall, it won't be too long until some lenders react and try to take advantage. There will be some caution as previous Trump announcements have been withdrawn quickly. However if the fall in Swap rates remains consistent, now could be a great opportunity for mortgage borrowers needing to remortgage in the next six months.