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Nationwide: UK house prices rose 1.2% in November

ended 02. December 2024

UK house prices rose 1.2% in November, while the annual growth rate rebounded to 3.7%, from 2.4% in October, according to the Nationwide. House prices are now just 1% below their all-time peak. After the fiscal sledgehammer that struck on October 30th, experts were left “bemused”, "surprised" while one was left scratching his head.

8 responses from the Newspage community

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I'm scratching my head. A slight reversal in house price growth was the general consensus among those on the front line of the property market following the Budget, but this hasn't yet materialised. I would still expect budgetary impacts to start feeding through over the coming months and for house price growth to tail off.
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This is an extremely positive set of figures with house prices now only 1% below their all time peak. However, as the impact of the Budget and forthcoming increases in inflation feed through, price growth may begin to taper off. These figures highlight how a lack of progress on new build numbers is supporting values. Scarcity of stock and supply will always support house prices. That certainly appears to be the case here.
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The Budget dealt a hammer blow to the confidence of buyers so many will be a little bemused by such strong house price growth last month. During November, much of the momentum in the market disappeared as mortgage rates went north. Transactions won't drop off a cliff due to the stamp duty deadline next year but things are now noticeably quieter as people digest the impact of the Budget on their finances.
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To say this rise in house prices is surprising is an understatement. November saw a material drop-off in demand as rates went north following the October 30th fiscal event. Before the Budget, there was the prospect of two rate cuts before the end of the year as inflation was sub-2%. But once the markets deemed the tax changes announced in the Budget to be inflationary, fixed rate mortgage pricing started to rise almost immediately, impacting demand. With inflation subsequently rising to 2.3%, the December rate cut borrowers had been hoping for now appears unlikely. There is still life in the property market, and the looming stamp duty deadline is driving a number of transactions, but things are nowhere near as busy as they were and could have been.
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This data will surprise many given the impact of the Budget on sentiment. On this evidence the market appears robust but it doesn't feel that way. Before the Budget mortgage rates had been falling for a number of months as markets were expecting two rate cuts this year and that was translating into increased demand for property. Sadly the Budget changed everything. With the Budget seen as inflationary, rates are now likely to stay higher for longer, which is not ideal for bricks and mortar.
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The Budget butchered the market so this data is a big curveball. Over the summer, the market was showing signs of resurgence but the Budget popped the balloon. It’s a slow road back but with time hopefully we can get there. Rates will remain higher than we expected and it's hard to see the market not slowing down as we move into the new year.
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The housing market, once a symbol of opportunity, has transformed into a battlefield where the wealthy wage war against the rest. As property prices skyrocket, the dream of homeownership fades for countless individuals. The ultra-wealthy, insatiable in their pursuit of profit, view real estate as a lucrative investment. They hoard properties, driving up prices and limiting supply. This predatory behavior leaves ordinary people struggling to find affordable housing, while the wealthy consolidate their power and wealth. Our Goverment, seemingly powerless to intervene, watch as the crisis deepens. Their feeble attempts at regulation are easily circumvented by the wealthy elite, who wield significant influence over policymakers. The future of the housing market appears bleak. As the gap between the rich and poor widens, the dream of homeownership becomes increasingly elusive for many.
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The Nationwide House Price Index shows annual growth of 3.7%, with November’s 1.2% rise highlighting surprising resilience. Prices remain near their peak, reflecting strong demand—but affordability, particularly mortgage rates, remains the key challenge. The October budget’s inflationary impact has pushed rates higher, knocking confidence and stalling hopes for further base rate cuts. Without action to restore stability, 2024 risks limping to a close, with little change in 2025.