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Land Registry July 2023 house price index

ended 20. September 2023

Average UK house prices increased by 0.6% in the 12 months to July 2023, down from a revised 1.9% in June 2023, according to Land Registry data published this morning.

The average UK house price was £290,000 in July 2023, which is £2,000 higher than 12 months ago, but £2,000 below the recent peak in November 2022. Other key points:

  • Average house prices increased over the 12 months to July 2023, to £309,000 in England (0.6%), £192,000 in Scotland (0.1%), while average house prices in Wales decreased to £216,000 (negative 0.1%).
  • Average house prices increased by 2.7% to £174,000 in the year to Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2023 in Northern Ireland.
  • The North East saw the highest annual percentage change of all English regions in the 12 months to July 2023 (2.7%), while the South West saw the lowest (negative 1.0%).

Free UK news agency, Newspage, sought the views of property and mortgage experts, which can be found below.

12 responses from the Newspage community

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Bob Singh
Founder at Chess Mortgages
As seen in this latest data, the downward pressure on house prices has been relentless of late due to the interest rate rises we have seen over the past year. Mortgage rates have reached dizzy heights not seen for well over a decade. Homeowners have had to grapple with soaring mortgage rates and soaring inflation with no real growth in household incomes. However, things could finally be turning a corner. It's now a buyers' market and sellers are pricing more realistically, which should stimulate activity. With Bank Rate likely close to its peak, now could be a good time to enter the property market, a market that many have been observing from the sidelines. Lenders are reducing rates on almost a daily basis to secure market share as lender confidence grows. Mortgage brokers are seeing more enquiries after a quiet-ish August. The rest of 2023 looks promising.
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Imran Khan
Co-founder & CEO at QuantumLoopAI
While Wednesday morning's inflation data was very encouraging, we're far from being out of the woods. Although the Bank of England may consider a pause in rate hikes at tomorrow's meeting, another increase is likely in this cycle. The property market remains under significant pressure. We anticipate house prices will continue to decline well into 2023. On the ground, sellers are recalibrating expectations, often slashing prices to secure deals. Buyer activity remains sluggish and the new affordability landscape has sidelined many. Despite rate wars among lenders, these pale in significance compared to broader rate hikes and stringent affordability checks. The property market faces more turbulence before any turnaround is likely. Optimism should be tempered with realism.
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Darryl Dhoffer
Founder at The Mortgage Geezer
The August inflation data was a welcome surprise but consumer confidence is still low and the property market remains very quiet. Big ticket purchases such as buying a new home are not a huge priority for many people right now, keeping their heads above water is, and so we will continue to see further downward pressure on house prices. The big issue with these figures is that they are reliant on Land Registry figures that are 3-6m behind in recorded data, so these figures are more reflective of houses sold in January this year, and nothing like what house prices on the ground are as of now.
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Ranald Mitchell
Director at bad credit mortgage specialists Charwin Mortgages
It has not been a good time for sellers, with housing supply reasonably strong and demand weak, largely driven by the costs of borrowing and poor consumer confidence. This is driving asking prices down to try and entice the right buyers to make offers. Mortgage market pricing is continuing to head in the right direction, but it is unlikely that there will be much change for the remainder of the year, and all eyes are on the first quarter of 2024, when demand will hopefully start to recover.
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Craig Fish
Director at Lodestone Mortgages
Without a doubt, we will see further drops in house prices, and these are only likely to get worse in the coming months, as more data is released. It's important to remember that the data we see from all indices is a little historic, but from the Land Registry even more so as it is based on transactions that happened several months ago. It's going to take more than positive inflation data and a rate war by lenders to make a significant impact on property transactions as we approach the end of the year. Unless rates drop significantly below 5%, and house prices stabilise, neither of which is looking likely, then I suspect the last few months of 2023 will be more of the same. Let's hope 2024 gets off to a flying start.
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Andrew Montlake
Managing Director at Coreco
House price falls are inevitable given the prevailing high interest rate environment, but drops are in line with expectations of a correction as the pandemic froth is blown away. Whilst it will be a buyers' market for some time yet, as inflationary pressures and mortgage rates ease, the old issues of too little supply versus pent-up demand will resurface and protect the market from dramatic drops. The housing market will still prove to be somewhat robust and the doommongers wrong once more.
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Charles Breen
Founder at C B
While falling house prices are great for first-time buyers, helping them to get onto the ladder, they're not so great for people desperate to upsize but they can't because they no longer have the required equity in their current property to put down a big enough deposit on their onwards purchase. However, what has been stalling the market has been a lack of first-time buyers so anything that encourages them back into the market is definitely welcome, as no one can move without someone lower down on the ladder making a move. The rate war is definitely helping transaction levels pick up. It's now up to us brokers and also estate agents to spread the word of this to try and change the narrative on the market, as its not all doom and gloom.
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Ross McMillan
Owner/Mortgage Advisor at Blue Fish Mortgage Solutions
With the inflation data beginning to show positive signs at last and lenders chipping away at rates, as the leaves begin to fall outside, it’s actually the green shoots of market recovery that can now be seen poking through the dreich Autumn weather. In Scotland, house prices have remained stubbornly solid in comparison to other areas of the UK and the first-time buyer market and demand has proven particularly resilient and strong throughout the year, but even more so in recent weeks as lower rates and boosted confidence have begun to filter through. Momentum looks set to grow on the positive sentiment now returning and although winter will likely see the usual seasonal lull, a launchpad for a strong start to 2024 is now very realistic.
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Austyn Johnson
Founder at Mortgages For Actors
We have seen a fair amount of down-valuations recently and I feel that the surveyors are being wary. However, this could end up with lower priced properties hitting the market, which will encourage buyers even more. I see a good end to 2023 and a decent start to 2024. Lenders will always have a rate war, as it's supposed to be competitive, but we will need to make sure we spread the work out well or we will end up with another rush on lenders and them raising rates again.
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Peter Stamford
Mortgage Expert at Stamford Home Finance
If you squint really hard, you'll see a subtle beacon of hope for first-time buyers, and many could find a hidden gem in the current landscape. However, for those aspiring to ascend to a larger home, the path seems somewhat obscured, as obtaining sufficient equity becomes a steep climb. As we traverse this uneven market terrain, it appears wise for the Bank of England to adopt a softer stance, boosting consumer confidence.
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Scott Taylor-Barr
Principal Adviser at Barnsdale Financial Management
Whilst the latest data shows a fall in house prices, we have to remember that these falls are quite minor in the context of two years of record house price growth. It would be fair to say that we're not seeing house price falls, more a correction of some of the pandemic premium that swept through the market in 2021 and 2022, fuelled by the shift to work-from-home, sub-2% mortgage interest rates and the stamp duty holiday. The pendulum has well and truly swung the other way now, with many firms asking employees to spend more and more time in the office, stamp duty back in place for the vast majority and mortgage interest rates at 5% or 6%.
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Steven Hargreaves
Mortgage and Protection Adviser at The Mortgage Co
It's no surprise that the Land Registry House Price Index released today showed a further drop in house prices. Property sales suring the spring and summer have been sluggish, and vendors have had to price accordingly to find those elusive buyers. We are optimistic that the busier autumn housing market, along with the current interest rate war and lower inflation, will all be positive markers that the housing market is moving again. We have seen an upturn in first-time buyer enquiries starting in late August and running through September, indicating there is plenty of demand. Speaking to local estate agents who are reporting higher levels of new instructions also bodes well.