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Inflation and rate decision

ended 22. April 2026

Inflation is rising again. Higher fuel prices due to the war in the Middle East saw the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rise by 3.3% in the 12 months to March 2026, up from 3.0% in the 12 months to February. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.7% in March 2026, compared with a rise of 0.3% in March 2025. What are you expecting from the Bank of England on its 30 April rate decision? A hold? A pre-emptive quarter percent hike? Any thoughts, ASAP please, including what higher inflation means for savers, borrowers, investors and the Pound?

5 responses from the Newspage community

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Ranald MitchellVerified
Director at bad credit mortgage specialists Charwin Mortgages
Few will be surprised to see fuel pushing inflation higher, because drivers feel that pain straight away. But the real shocker is heating oil. For that cost to almost double in such a short period is absurd. For families who rely on it, this is not an abstract inflation number, it is a financial hammer blow. At times like this, the Government should be asking how to give working Britain some tax relief, not just sitting back while soaring prices swell the Treasury’s take.
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Riz MalikVerified
Independent Financial Adviser at R3 Wealth
This rise in inflation is the tip of the iceberg thanks to the Trump tax that we are all having to pay. With oil still elevated and yo-yoing it won’t be long before the other factors that feed into the inflation number start rising. The Bank of England will be very wary to be the first to hike rates but they can’t ignore the data if this continues. We knew it was coming but it doesn't make it any easier.
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Craig FishVerified
Director at Lodestone Mortgages
The jump from 3.0% to 3.3% CPI is unwelcome but not surprising. Energy prices have been feeding through from the Middle East conflict for some time now, but I do not think the Bank of England hikes on the 30th as the economy is too fragile. This inflation is being driven by external forces, not by wages running away or domestic demand overheating. Raising rates to fight an energy price spike is a bit like taking painkillers for someone else's headache. I expect a hold, with language that keeps the door open but signals patience.
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Justin MoyVerified
Managing Director at EHF Mortgages
No changes expected at the next MPC meeting, as mortgage rates have already by around 1% in the last month or so, and inflation is purely out of the hands of the public, not driven by spending behaviours of the UK population. The fuel price cap may be the straw that breaks the base rate, so let’s see how the conflict plays out for the next few months.
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Michelle LawsonVerified
Director at Lawson Financial
No real surprise here with the global carnage resulting in financial chaos. The IMF has already told nations to hold off on rising interest rates with a knee jerk reaction so it will be interesting to see if Threadneedle St can hold its nerve.