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Impact of Iran missile strikes

ended 28. February 2026

Earlier this morning, the US and Israel launched missile strikes on Iran. In a lengthy announcement on Truth Social, Trump said the regime was responsible for “mass terror” and “we're not going to put up with it any longer”. He described the military action as ”massive" and “ongoing” and said he would raze the regime's missile industry to the ground. Trump described Iran as “the world’s number one state sponsor of terror” that has “soaked the earth with blood and guts”. He added “this terrororist regime can never have a nuclear weapon” and said he would “obliterate” the Iranian navy. He ordered the Islamic Revolutionary Guard to lay down its weapons or face “certain death”. What are your thoughts on the potential impact of this on markets and the Dollar/Pound? Could gold and silver see renewed momentum and is $6k gold now very much on the table? If the oil price spikes, as looks almost certain, could this derail the Bank of England's inflation predictions? How might swaps react on Monday and what could be the impact on borrowers? Any thoughts and insights from any angle (as there are numerous), send them across ASAP as we are writing this story up now.

10 responses from the Newspage community

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Tony Redondo
Founder at Cosmos Currency Exchange
The joint US and Israel strikes on Iran will trigger an immediate flight to safety when markets reopen. The Dollar should surge, potentially pushing Sterling down toward $1.30 as investors exit riskier assets. Gold, already near $5,300, will climb further and, if escalation blocks the Strait of Hormuz, $6,000 becomes a realistic target within weeks. Silver also looks set to spike back towards $100. Oil had already risen over 2% on Friday before the strikes. For the UK, a sustained oil price spike threatens stagflation, likely derailing the Bank of England's 2.1% inflation target and forcing a pause on rate cuts. Expect interest rate swaps to jump on Monday as markets price in higher-for-longer inflation, prompting lenders to pull or reprice mortgage products upward. The wildcard remains Iran's retaliation. Any strike on regional energy infrastructure would trigger a structural global economic repricing.
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Andrew Montlake
CEO at Coreco
The impact of Saturday morning's missile strikes on markets and the UK economy could be profound. Domestically, more rate cuts this year by the Bank of England were priced in but this now looks far less likely as a spike in the oil price could prove hugely inflationary. There is every chance swaps will head north on Monday, which will be a blow to borrowers. The UK economy, which so desperately needs a rate cut or two, may now have to wait longer. Expect a turbulent week ahead.
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Steven Greenall
Mortgage and Protection Advisor at Protect & Lend
The Bank of England's inflation projections are now looking very exposed. If the oil price spikes, as looks certain, that could prove inflationary, which could see the recent fall in swaps rates suddenly reversed. That could mean mortgage pricing rises once again, in a serious blow to borrowers and bricks and mortar just when the market looked to be gaining momentum. And just like that, everything has changed. Though it's not a Black Swan event, as this was always a possibility, the impact on markets could be very similar. Expect highly volatile markets on Monday and gold, silver and oil to spike. All eyes are now on the Straits of Hormuz to see what, if any, action Iran might take to stem the transportation of oil and target American assets stationed in the waters.
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Omer Mehmet
Managing Director at Trinity Finance
Saturday's strikes could bring to an end the recent decline in swap rates, which has resulted in cheaper mortgage pricing. This goes to show how quickly markets can turn and why nothing, in the financial world, is guaranteed. Borrowers hanging on for lower rates may now be disappointed. Expect a volatile week ahead in the markets.
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Justin Moy
Managing Director at EHF Mortgages
When we advise on the potential future pricing of mortgage rates, this is exactly the outside influence that cuts past inflation, unemployment and GDP figures, and can quickly and easily push up the cost of borrowing and spike inflation with potential for oil price increases. It would not surprise anyone if we do see rate increases in the short term, as banks run to the relative safety of gold and silver, whilst this conflict continues to alert the rest of the world.
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Riz Malik
Independent Financial Adviser at R3 Wealth
An attack during Ramadan is going to do nothing to help regional stability in the Middle East. It’s understandable why the strikes were launched when the markets were closed because there is one thing markets don't like and that's uncertainty. A spike in energy prices is highly likely, potentially causing inflationary pressures that could derail the Bank of England's bullish forecasts. A rush to gold also looks inevitable, driving up the price, potentially significantly. The markets won’t take too kindly to this other than arms manufacturers, who could benefit from a prolonged campaign. Iran’s response will determine whether this is going end a lot differently than last time.
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Samuel Mather-Holgate
Managing Director & IFA at Mather and Murray Financial
It's no surprise Trump chose these strikes whilst markets are closed, and he will hope that they are decisive and the conclusion is obvious by Monday morning. Sadly, it is highly unlikely this will be the case. Expect the dollar to weaken further, markets to plummet and the oil price to soar. Fuel prices in the UK could hit £2 per litre if this is a protracted war. If you're holding gold, it looks likely that the yellow metal's phenomenal rally will continue despite its mega-high price per ounce. $6k gold is suddenly looking very achievable.
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Craig Fish
Director at Lodestone Mortgages
Events like this are a reminder that mortgage rates don’t move in isolation. If geopolitical tension pushes oil prices higher, inflation could rise again and that creates every chance that swap rates will increase, which feeds directly into mortgage pricing. Markets can reprice very quickly when uncertainty appears, and lenders react just as fast. This is exactly why borrowers should never choose a mortgage purely to try and “beat the market” or second-guess rate movements. The right approach is to focus on your own circumstances, affordability and long-term plans, not short-term market speculation.
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Philly Ponniah
Chartered Wealth Manager and Financial Coach at Philly Financial
For the Bank of England, an oil spike creates an immediate policy dilemma. Higher fuel and transport costs feed into headline inflation quickly, making forecasts harder to manage and potentially pushing rate cuts further out, which keeps borrowing costs elevated for households and businesses.
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Simon Bridgland
Broker at Charwin Private Clients
Conflict will always make investors run for cover to the solid bunker of precious metals such as gold and silver, and prices that were already marching north on Friday could now soar. But for the average person on civvy street, with energy bills to pay, fuel to pump and mortgage payment to cover, this becomes a financial pain not gain. Next week swap rates look set to rise as markets price in a different rate outlook and lenders become more cautious and charge a higher premium. This isn’t likely to be over by Monday, so you can be pretty sure that inflation will have something to say with increased costs across the board. The only unknown is by how much.