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Tomorrow (Friday) morning at 7am the latest GDP data is being published. In short, the Government, in all its wisdom, is going to tell us how the economy is performing.
As ever, we want your views on the economy. Does it feel like things are picking up? Are you more optimistic than a few months ago? In short, how are things feeling on the ground?
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When confusion, catastrophe, and chaos are at play, it's hard to be optimistic. And at a time when profiteering has been rife, at all socioeconomic levels, we cannot overlook the fact that the foreseeable future will be an uphill battle for most. Businesses have collapsed before our eyes and a huge chunk of the population has been completely overlooked - just take the creative industries as the best example. GDP data and the Government's views on the economy are irrelevant to those that know what it's like in the trenches, especially when their vocations have been undermined to such an extent. Have we forgotten 'Fatima' and the awkwardness of that campaign?
I feel like the economy is in a bit of a limbo right now, on the precipice of the end of the stay at home ruling and the start of relaxation of covid rules. As more businesses are able to re-open, I hope that we will see a return in spending, but it is natural that people will spend more cautiously. It seems inevitable that there will be more job losses as the furlough scheme starts to be withdrawn over the coming months and with employment already at such a high level, there will be plenty of belt tightening going on. And this is all assuming that the vaccine rollout works and the levels of virus transmission continue to fall once restrictions are lifted, I think we will be foolish not to consider the possibility of restrictions returning at some point in the near future.
I certainly see an improvement in business confidence across our client base, with some areas, such as construction, busier than others. I am optimistic that with the vaccination rate soaring and decreasing occurrences of COVID-19, the economy will see a rapid return to growth in the second half of the year.
I'm optimistic for my own business but not in general. When chatting to people they seem tired, run down and with little appetite for growth. My prediction is a recession for 2021 with resurgent growth in 2022. People need rest and recuperation and to recharge their mental batteries, which we enjoy helping them do.
Honestly, as someone who works in craft, I think it is going to take a long time for things to pick up for us generally for small businesses. Small/non-essential shops have been closed almost as often as open and there have been few craft events that could go ahead for the past year, so it has been difficult to communicate with customers.
I know there is a supposition that people will want to spend money and 'treat' themselves, but many won't feel they can take the risk of using unspent money and I think a lot who will spend money would prefer to use it for a jolly good holiday or a blow-out meal (indoors!) rather than purchases.
So maybe there is hope on the horizon for holiday companies, airlines and hospitality, but I think small independent retail businesses will struggle for some long time to come.
The positive sentiment is definitely coming back in the market since the vaccine roll-out and people are willing to spend especially behind leisure and travel as there are positive signs of the overall economy opening up. But it's too early to tell if we're out of the woods yet. We really need strong measures in place to keep the economy open and moving forward.
The financial bleeding caused by C19 hasn't stopped yet, people are still anxious about their jobs and livelihood. For a full recovery, we need more money coming into the country, more people to be employed, more incentives for the general public and cash to be pumped into the economy, and perhaps even for all of us to accept the fact that we will have to live with C19 and face it's impacts for many years to come, if not forever, and to also fully undertsand that an 'economy' is not a switch that we can just turn on or off!
Since the recent roadmap announcement, wedding enquiries and bookings have gone through the roof! Client confidence has returned with a bang and there's now a frantic race on to secure future dates. If the key lockdown easing dates are achieved in April, May & June, the future is certainly looking extremely bright for my business and the wedding industry as a whole.
What I'm seeing is that consumers are prepared to treat themselves a little more, whether that be with some really nice beers, gins, wines or Prosecco's. It's like there's a feeling of 'things are toiugh enough so I'm going to treat myself', coupled with the fact they've not necessarily got things they can spend on in other areas has sen my industry benefit. Undoubtedly though, there's plenty of people struggling and when the rest of the retail sector opens up it has to be a good thing for everyone.
" Couples ready to let loose and party big time "- Cariad personal ceremonies/ Celebrant and Ceremony Designer
Having lost the greatest majority of Wedding bookings through the continual shutdowns of 2020, many couples had booked for a year ahead, meaning that the date rescheduled to, is upon us, and couples still rescheduling yet again.... but it is with renewed vigour and the strong feeling of doubt and anxieties removed
The news from Boris was a great start and was noticeable straight away with contact from couples energised for their plans to actually be going ahead this year and those already booking dates for next year and beyond, relieved that whatever decision they make will be a secure one.
There has been a huge flurry of visible enquiries hitting my in box , by couples that managed to go ahead and complete their legalities, last year , and now looking for the flexibility that a celebrant can give in writing and delivering a full ceremony with their chosen numbers of guests, in their place of choice, without the need for a registrar.
The new trend seems to be with many couples finding that their new changed date is not available for a registrar to attend their venue, so wishing to go ahead with all the plans that are in place with their venue and suppliers and invitations with renewed dates sent to their guests contacting me as a way of continuing with all their planned arrangements to include a full ceremony, and looking to complete their legalities at a later date.
My pivoted business "The Harmony Glass experience" is becoming an extremely popular product and service, with bridal couples looking for that extra wow factor to add to their ceremony and many having already completed all their planning now looking for an extra new idea that may have been missed the first time around and having the time and extra money to be adding a hint of luxury and heightening the memories of everyone present at their ceremony.
