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How long until mortgage rates are at pre-war levels?

ended 18. June 2026

One question: How long do you think it will be until we're back at the mortgage rates that were available before the war? Late summer? Christmas? Any thoughts, and your reasons why, send them across. This for The Independent.

5 responses from the Newspage community

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Editor
Nouran MoustafaVerified
Practice Principal & IFA at Roxton Wealth
I do not think we are going back to pre-war mortgage rates by late summer or Christmas. That feels too optimistic.

Rates may ease if the conflict calms, inflation keeps moving lower and swap rates settle, but borrowers should not expect a magic reset. The market has had a shock, and lenders do not reprice risk away overnight. Even when the immediate geopolitical fear fades, inflation expectations, energy costs, Bank of England caution and government borrowing concerns still sit in the background.

My view is that we may see gradual improvement over the next six to twelve months, but not a return to the very cheap money people remember from before the war. Those rates belonged to a different economic environment.

For borrowers, the sensible approach is to secure what is available, review early and improve the deal if pricing moves in their favour. Waiting for the old world to come back could be an expensive strategy.
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Ben PerksVerified
Managing Director at Orchard Financial Advisers
Not likely, as Burnham bashes down the doors to number 10. As the war ends, a leadership battle begins. So, stability is a little way off and rates won’t drop massively for a while. Hopefully the latter part of the year will be dull and boring in the news and we can start seeing some really competitive rates.
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Aaron StruttVerified
Product and Communications Director at Trinity Financial
Mortgage rates can change pretty quickly, especially when funding costs come down and the lenders want to issue more mortgages. If the Middle East peace plan works, then hopefully rates will keep getting better. If you are being really optimistic, maybe we could have a sub-4% rate in three or four months. This is subject to the Bank of England base rate staying roughly the same and positive news on inflation. Barclays has just lowered the price of its mortgage rates so they are much closer to Nationwide’s best buy deals.
The bank will have a 4.30% two-year fix (down from 4.39%) and a decent 4.43% five-year fix. Barclays has lowered its best five-year fix buy 0.33% (it was 4.76%) which means there is a good saving for anyone planning to take this rate soon. The bank has also reduced many of the rates for those with smaller deposits. It also pulled its best buy 3.96% two-year tracker. Nationwide also has a 4.29% two year fix and a 4.34% five-year fix. Halifax still has its 3.96 tracker.
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Darryl DhofferVerified
Founder at The Mortgage Geezer
If you’re waiting for mortgage rates to slide back to their pre-conflict glory days just because a Middle East peace plan was muttered, you might want to settle in. The ink isn’t wet on that agreement yet.
Here is why sub-4% rates by Christmas is a festive fairy tale:
First, the "Peace Premium" is an illusion. Lenders don't price mortgages on today’s oil spot price; they use Swap Rates. Right now, the City is pricing in massive risks because geopolitics rarely adhere to diplomatic timelines.
Second, the Bank of England is terrified of second-round inflation. The MPC just split 7–2 to hold rates at 3.75%, and the rebels wanted a hike, not a cut. Lenders won't discount mortgages while policymakers are still debating whether to tighten the screws.
Currently, two-year fixes sit a stubborn 80 basis points higher than pre-conflict levels. Late summer? Absolutely not. Christmas? Only if you mean Christmas 2027. For now, expect mortgage rates to behave higher for longer
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Doug MillerVerified
Director at Lansdown Financial Services
There is cautious optimism within the broker market.

With the peace deal now signed, a number of high street lenders have already begun reducing mortgage rates. While rates remain above those seen at the start of the year, they have eased from recent highs recorded only a few months ago.

As swap rates continue to fall, there is scope—and increasingly an expectation—for further reductions from lenders in the weeks ahead. However, when or whether rates will return to pre-war levels remains highly uncertain. Borrowers should be cautious about assuming a swift return to those levels when making decisions around purchasing or remortgaging.

No one can predict the future with certainty, even in more stable market conditions, but current indicators do point to improving sentiment and cautious optimism across much of the broker market.