Copy article

Halifax House Price Index August 23

ended 06. September 2023

Tomorrow morning at 07:00, the Halifax is publishing its August house price index. Last week, the Nationwide reported that “August saw a further softening in the annual rate of house price growth to -5.3%, from -3.8% in July, the weakest rate since July 2009. Prices fell by 0.8% over the month, after taking account of seasonal effects.” A handful of Qs:

  • How did the UK property market fare in August in your experience? The usual seasonal lull, or worse than usual?
  • What do you expect to happen to house prices during the remainder of 2023, and why?
  • Mortgage rates are slowly edging down. Are you seeing demand and confidence pick up as a result?
  • What are you expecting from the Bank of England at its next MPC meeting on 21 September? Could we see a pause on Bank Rate if inflation edges down again?

Any other thoughts, insights or anecdotes, send them across.

12 responses from the Newspage community

Copy all

Copy

Editor
Stephen Perkins
Managing Director at Yellow Brick Mortgages
House prices falling more than expected was not enough to stop the housing market activity reducing beyond the normal seasonal lull. With mortgage rates continuing to reduce as lenders all fight it out for market share of a smaller pie, hope still remains for a recovery. Whilst a hold on base rate rises would be very welcome, it is almost certain the Bank of England will raise the base rate again at the next review meeting.
Copy

Editor
Darryl Dhoffer
Founder at The Mortgage Geezer
August house prices, same reduced mortgage activity, however some signs of life starting to come into play as we head into the last quarter of the year. Clients are still making decisions with their wallets, however, and until we see the handbrake being pulled on Bank Of England base rate rises, will we then see more enthusiasm from consumers - sadly indications are that will not be the case come 21st September
Copy

Editor
Rohit Kohli
Director at The Mortgage Stop
We're expecting to see confirmation of a stagnant market with prices on a downward trend. We've had a busy August with enquiries but plenty of clients are playing the waiting game with the expectation of prices tumbling, despite lenders reducing rates in recent weeks. This could become a self-fulfilling prophecy if buyers continue to hold off and sellers become desperate to sell. We're sat on an economic cliff edge and the BoE needs to tread carefully with their next steps, best case a pause in rises would be welcome to offer some stability but I fear having acted too slowly to begin with, the BoE risk over-compensating for this by pushing harder on interest rates.
Copy

Editor
Riz Malik
Independent Financial Adviser at R3 Wealth
This August was profoundly quiet, and probably one of the quietest I can recall. Although there's been a minor buzz in activity recently as kids go back to school, there are no significant waves in the market. It's comforting to note that some ex-MPC members have alluded to a 'cause for pause' with rate hikes. However, despite positive economic data, we're probably not going to avoid at least one rate increase before 2023 concludes. Even so, consistent house price drops could spur activity, even in a high-interest rate scenario as lenders are cutting margins and loosening their criteria to stimulate the market and secure business. The property chains still in place remain worrisome, with many barely hanging on. Even developers are accepting more part-exchanges to stimulate sales amidst the ongoing slowdown. In reality, we are all at the mercy of the Bank of England whose track record to date has been questionable at best.
Copy

Editor
Ranald Mitchell
Director at bad credit mortgage specialists Charwin Mortgages
There will be no surprises in the Halifax data, certain to show a continuing slump. The effects of the increases in borrowing costs are showing with property sales harder to achieve and sellers being tempted with lower offers so they can move on. The remainder of the year will probably follow this pattern until consumer confidence in mortgage pricing balances everything out. Mortgage rates are continuing to slowly decrease week by week so a lot of attention will be paid to lender pricing and reaction when the MPC inevitably increase base rate again.
Copy

Editor
Craig Fish
Director at Lodestone Mortgages
The UK property market went on holiday in August just like the rest of the population and it feels like this has been much worse than the normal seasonal lull. We are likely to see further reductions in house prices in the coming months, particularly in the Capital, with drops of 10- 15% extremely likely by the time things settle. Despite these price drops and the 'slowly' reducing mortgage rates, we are not seeing any increase in demand on the purchase side of the business, because people feel there is a lot further to go yet. The remortgage side is now also slowing slightly as people defer making decisions due to expectations of more rate reductions, and whilst there are mutterings of a rate pause, I strongly suspect we will see a 0.25% increase on the 21st September.
Copy

Kundan Bhaduri
Property Developer and Portfolio Landlord at The Kushman Group
The market has experienced tremendous growth over the past years, with record-high average property prices in August 2022. Such rapid appreciation was unsustainable in the long run. The softening in prices in 2023 should be seen, in part, as a return to more reasonable levels. Also, remember that August typically witnesses a seasonal lull in the housing market. People are on vacation, schools are out, and buying or selling homes is not a top priority. For the rest of 2023, we expect rates to gradually edge down, which can boost demand. However, affordability remains a concern due to stronger stress tests. Despite the challenges, the market has displayed resilience, particularly among FTBs who are adapting by seeking smaller, more affordable homes. Prices will continue to soften, but I don't foresee a precipitous decline. Gradual adjustments, like the ones we've seen, are more likely. It's worth noting that even with these declines, prices remain well above pre-pandemic levels.
Copy

Rhys Schofield
Brand Director at Peak Mortgages and Protection
Never read too much into August and December figures as the traditional lulls tell you very little. As bellweather months go, September is traditionally one of the years busiest so let's see how that unfolds. Early signs are that now the kids are back at school it's going to be a busy one.
Copy

Charles Breen
Founder at C B
We are expecting interest rates to stabilise during the last quarter of the year and with this it will give buyers more confidence and this should boost house purchasing again for the end of the year and into the start of next year.
We have already seen an uptick in enquiries for purchases, especially for first-time buyers as people's budgets have adjusted after the initial rate shocks during the last year, also for the last number of years we have been spoilt with how busy the market has been and a lot of us have forgotten how traditionally quiet August is, the market was just returning to its seasonal ebb and flow. When speaking to buyers they are all showing confidence in the market ahead and all believe that the worst is over, With the number of houses on the market broadly similar to the number of houses that were on the market in 2017 it's not as depressed a market as some are making out and there are already signs of green shoots appearing.
Copy

Graham Cox
Director at Bridging Hub
August is always a quiet month, but we found it unusually slow for new buyer enquiries. There are people looking to buy, but caution is the order of the day. The Bank of England seems addicted to base rate rises, and we could see another one on Sept 21st, tightening the screw on household budgets even further. As we've seen with Nationwide already, the pace of house price falls is starting to accelerate, and I wouldn't be surprised if monthly drops of around 1% become the norm for the next 6-12 months.
Copy

Gary Bush
Financial Adviser at MortgageShop.com
August for us was busy for what is supposed to be the summer holiday slowdown. We cover the whole of the UK and see no signs of slow activity across all mortgage needs first time buyers, home movers, remortgages etc. We are still hearing stories from buyers of numerous people all offering for the same properties and having to increase offers. With fixed mortgage rates continuing to be released by lenders on the lower side we see quite a busy end to 2023 on the way. The Bank of England needs to pause its base rate activity, but we said that last month and they seem to be singing to Rishi's tune rather than the struggling taxpayers sadly.
Copy

Ross McMillan
Owner/Mortgage Advisor at Blue Fish Mortgage Solutions
As the data begins to catch up with reality a fall in prices nationally should come as no surprise however it’s worth noting significant regional and property type discrepancies.

Personally with Scottish schools back earlier than in England, August was a busy month with a fair splattering of new enquiries, predominantly from first time buyers and properties sub £250k are generally still performing well and offers above home report valuation remain the norm.

The middle to higher end of the market is however stagnant at best and me buy to let purchase activity is virtually non-existent.

Another rate rise from the MPC seems inevitable but the market has already priced this in and it seems like a period of rate stability from lenders is most likely for the final quarter of the year.