Flash PMI - Services lifted by expectations of lower interest rates

These figures are reflective of what's happening on the ground. Enquiry numbers have been strong in November and December, as falling mortgage rates and expectations that the base rate has now peaked boost confidence. Among prospective buyers, who are emerging in greater numbers, the main challenge is the lack of available property on the market. The latest inflation data and contraction in GDP in October suggest the base rate may fall sooner than originally expected, whatever the Bank of England says, and mortgage rates have already been reducing on the back of growing lender confidence in the medium-term outlook.

The slight revival in the service sector could be down to several factors. The likelihood is that the prospect of lower interest rates, potential tax cuts and a General Election in 2024 could be the main catalysts. There's not quite a feel-good factor among financial services firms yet but they're certainly feeling better.

We've seen an increase in demand since September, with enquiry numbers continuing strongly. A reasonable proportion of these are distressed households who are at risk of falling over or have fallen behind, due to levels of unsecured credit, coupled with the increases in costs of mortgages, energy and living. The hopes of lower rates in 2024 are now almost a given with the lender pricing war as fierce as ever, and pressure on Bank of England to reduce rates sooner rather than later.

December mortgage enquiries historically are always muted. However, there seems to be more of an appetite for enquiries this month, like a passing shopper who is open to browsing instead of previous dismissive glances. The feedback I'm getting, however, is that the tumultuous winds of 2023 have left consumers yearning and hoping for calmer seas for 2024, and I expect a steady stream of enquiries, not a torrent that'll flood the gates.