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Bank of England Rate decision Nov 3

ended 03. November 2022

The Bank of England has just raised rates by 0.75% to 3%. The minutes can be seen >> here <<. Please send across any thoughts about the impact on borrowers, savers and investors/markets and Sterling ASAP. And if you see anything interesting in the minutes, by all means flag. Just a short paragraph or two will do. Please do not write an essay. Soundbites, not War and Peace.

19 responses from the Newspage community

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Fixed rates have already factored in this increase so they shouldn't move any further north. They tend to be based on swap rates, which if anything, are now coming down as some confidence is restored to the market following the U-turn on everything Kwasi and Truss did. Tracker rates and variable rates will of course go up as a result of Thursday's rate rise, but there is such a huge gap between the bank rate and fixed rates that we shouldn't see any further hikes in the short term. Anyone exiting their mortgage now and in the foreseeable will be having a shock in comparison to the rates they're used to and we're currently dealing with clients whose mortgages are going up by £500-£1000 per month. This is making the energy crisis seem like a drop in the ocean and there will be a lot of people defaulting on their mortgages or selling their houses in the medium term. Savers on the other hand should of course start to benefit from this.
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This rate rise potentially kills the purchase market stone dead and is catastrophic for anyone coming out of a fixed rate. This interest rate rise won't be felt by many who still have fixed rates, so won't curb inflation in the way the Bank of England want it to. The Bank has no control over the cost of gas, electric and food prices, which are the main reason for the high inflation figures. The previous rate hikes have had no effect on inflation and won't for some time. Rate rises take time to affect the mortgage market because the majority of people have longer term fixed rates. Anyone who fixed their mortgages last year for longer than 2 years, at less than 2% for some and less than 3% for others, may not need to change their spending habits for now. For those families whose fixed rates end in the next few months, this could mean mortgage defaults and even repossession. £100,000 over 25 years @ 2% last year would have cost £423.85/pm, whereas the same borrowing @ 6.00% will now cost £644.30/pm. Anyone who has a mortgage with a fixed rate ending within the next 6 months who is worried about this and the effect it will have on them should speak to a mortgage broker as soon as possible. It has never been more important to be proactive.
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Although the base rate is still not that high when compared to 15-20 years ago, the sudden hike for those have been fixed very low for very long will leave them reeling at the change. Borrowers on the whole will be affected, but worst hit will be the people whose fixed rate ends in the next few months. Some people could see their monthly payment double. People on variable rates, especially portfolio landlords, will need to get the ball rolling ASAP as they will have increasing costs across their whole portfolio. Even the people in the middle of a long fix will now be limited in their flexibility. If they suddenly needed to get out of the fix, they will be hit with a huge hike in rate. Movers will be wary of moving, buyers will be wary of buying and rents will rise to make up for this. Property prices will need to come down to cope with the change if we want to keep this market moving smoothly. With things as they are, people need to talk to their broker to ensure they get the best possible deal.
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This rate rise was not unexpected and will bring us in line with similar economies around the world. What we now need to see is some stability among fixed rate mortgage products, given we have had some minor reductions in the last week or so. A bigger problem will be the affordability assessments and stress testing on both residential and buy-to-let mortgages, as the amount you can borrow will inevitably reduce again.
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Hopefully this is it. The largest increase in interest rates in over 30 years should be enough evidence for the Bank of England to realise they can't do anything about imported energy prices. The recession we are entering will be sufficient to bring down inflation over the medium term so the Bank of England can back off. You can see that the Monetary Policy Committee members might already be starting to think this way, as there were two out of the nine who voted against the move on Thursday.
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Nobody can accuse the Bank of England of not being aggressive enough after today's rate rise. The good news is that 3% was the highest that any individual member of the Monetary Policy Committee wanted the new base rate to be. The next MPC meeting is on the 15th December. Given we have the delayed fiscal statement on the 17th of November it will be interesting to see if the base rate remains at this level for the remainder of 2022.
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This rate rise was in line with expectations but some members of the committee wanted to raise by a lower amount. The minutes, however, suggest that rates will peak at a level that is lower than what is priced into financial markets currently, roughly 4.75%. The Bank is effectively saying 'We are not going to raise rates as much as you think we are'.
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Though this is the rise we were all anticipating, it will still come as a shock to many homeowners. The days of ultra-cheap mortgage finance are now over. I would advise anyone who is still thinking of buying or remortgaging to keep calm, seek professional advice and take the right decision for their own circumstances. Never has independent mortgage advice been more important.
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As expected, the base rate has increased to 3%, although mortgage lenders will have priced this in over the past month already. As absurd as it sounds, you might find that more mortgage rates will reduce as the base rate has not increased as high as some feared. Clearly the appointment of Rishi Sunak as PM has had a significant and positive impact for the mortgage market and therefore homeowners.
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I just can't get my head around what they are expecting this increase to achieve. They need to control inflation quickly but with most people being on long term fixed rates it could take years for this to filter through.
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Although the rate rise to 3% was expected, it still is not good news for borrowers. This will once again increase the cost of mortgages for households, landlords and also businesses. The era of ultra-low interest rates is truly over and it's possible it may never return again. Only time will tell what impact this has on the economy and housing market.
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Despite being the steepest one-off rise since 1989, this hike of 0.75% by the Bank of England is bang on expectations. In a period where there have been far too many surprises for the markets, this is welcome news, and will hopefully continue the trend of settling the markets and mortgage rates.
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Rates are raised and in the same breath the Bank of England is predicting we're on course for the worst recession since records began. House prices are going to fall even faster after that comment. Andrew Bailey is walking the most precarious of tightropes, battling inflation on one hand, whilst trying to prevent economic disaster on the other. I don't envy him his job.
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The Bank of England had to be seen to be doing something, even if the global inflation issue is being primarily driven by commodity prices. Hammering mortgage holders seems like a very blunt instrument that will cause a lot of collateral damage. Why in a 21st century economy do we only seem to have 20th century or older economic weapon in our arsenal? Anyway, I doubt we'll see huge increases again to fixed rates as the potential rate rises have already been factored in over the past month or so but if you're on a tracker or variable rate you should pick up the phone to a mortgage broker today.
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The Bank of England base rate decision on Thursday will not have a huge impact on mortgage lending as lenders had already priced in this increase. In fact, many had forecast a hike that was higher than the one we saw today. Tracker rates will increase after today's rate decision but they remain very competitive in comparison to fixed rates. What will worry many people is the Bank of England's very downbeat assessment of the economy. Its prognosis for the economy is bleak in the extreme. That, coupled with rising mortgage rates, is likely to dampen demand for property as people batten down the hatches. A lot will depend on how the jobs market holds up in 2023.
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his rate rise will not have come as a surprise to anyone. In fact, after the chaos caused by the mini-Budget, a 0.75% hike seems reasonable. The key from a borrower perspective is how the swap rate markets react to this increase and the Autumn budget given that fixed rate mortgages are still the most popular option for most people. That said, even if fixed rate money does start to drop from the peaks seen in October, we’re still entering a prolonged period of higher rates than most borrowers have been used to for the past 15 years. This will undoubtedly put pressure on affordability and exacerbate the current cost of living crisis for many. Difficult times lie ahead for many.
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This base rate increase is going to have a minimal impact on fixed rates. Lenders have already priced their products with future rates at 6%. The appointment of a new PM and Chancellor has brought back confidence into the market, and meant future rate increase expectations are at a lower level. So, as we have seen this week, lenders could reduce rates, or keep them stable, despite the fact we've just had a rate hike.
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Everything is as expected. The market had already priced in what was coming. Smart money was already moving in anticipation. We've known about the recession for a while, we didn't need a label to confirm it. We just need to get on and deal with it so we see the other side as soon as possible rather than continuing to complain and lament the crisis.
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The Bank of England has been telling everyone to expect a rate rise of 0.75% to 1% in November, so this rate rise as expected and the mortgage market will have very little reaction to it. Which after the volatility of the past month, is good news for everyone. Given the more stable environment we are starting to see new fixed rate mortgage deals come down in price, which is welcome. Now we all need to hold our collective breath and see what the Government does in its Autumn Statement later this month, they can't make a mess of things again, can they?