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Autumn Budget - food price rise warnings

ended 15. September 2025

A journalist at the Daily Express is writing an article for tomorrow's paper on whether British households could be hit with another surge in food prices if the Chancellor’s upcoming Budget adds fresh costs for retailers, which the boss of Aldi has warned could be coming.

Giles Hurley, chief executive at Aldi UK, said that recent Government policies, including this year’s National Insurance hike and extra costs linked to new packaging rules, had already fed into the cost of everyday shopping.

Additional measures could make matters worse. He told the BBC: “Any policies which affect the operating costs of business should be considered very, very carefully because of the very real risk they find their way back into the food system and onto prices.”

It comes as consumers continue to feel the pinch from stubbornly high inflation, with the price of staples rising sharply. For example, a 500g pack of lean beef mince has jumped from £3.79 at the start of the year to over £5 in most major supermarkets.

The Food and Drink Federation (FDF) has warned that new packaging rules alone could add an extra £1.1billion in costs onto the sector from next month. Combined with rising wages and higher National Insurance contributions, it expects food inflation to reach 5.7% by the end of the year.

Should the Chancellor avoid any taxes that could impact grocers and supermarkets? What would be the worst thing she could do to hit anyone putting food on the table? Will beleaguered Brits be able to deal with even higher food prices or could they push many to breaking point? Any thoughts, ASAP please. 

8 responses from the Newspage community

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Samuel Mather-Holgate
Managing Director & IFA at Mather and Murray Financial
The government has got itself in a tangle, whilst trying to increase tax receipts it's likely that they will increase the cost to businesses who, in turn, will pass this on to customers and increase inflation. Tis makes it less likely that interest rates will fall, meaning the chancellor will be paying more interest on her debt. It's time for fresh thinking in number 11, Reeves doesn’t cut the mustard.
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Riz Malik
Independent Financial Adviser at R3 Wealth
The Chancellor must steer clear of measures that tighten household budgets any further. With many already struggling to put food on the table, any move that raises living costs risks fuelling public discontent at a time when confidence is already fragile.
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Michelle Lawson
Director at Lawson Financial
Policy making is cyclical and usually the burden will have unintended consequences by harming the poeple it is trying to help. Regulation and tax increases have become so burdensome for business that they can't asbsorb it and pass it on to the consumer. The Chancellor and the PM are both on borrowed time. People's patience and money is running out just about as quick as Labour's time in power. Avoiding further rises and causing more damage should be avoided at all costs - the time taken to fix it will be longer than the time Labour has taken to create it.
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Eamonn Prendergast
Chartered Financial Adviser at Palantir Financial Planning Ltd
Every extra cost isn’t absorbed by Aldi or Tesco, it lands as a hidden tax on families at the till. Cash-strapped households already face mince at over £5 a pack, and new rules or higher NI simply pile more pressure onto budgets stretched to breaking point. UK food inflation is already running ahead of the EU; adding further costs risks pushing struggling families from concern into crisis
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Tony Redondo
Founder at Cosmos Currency Exchange
Food price inflation isn't just a risk - it's already happening. British households are at breaking point from government policy decisions, not external factors. The Chancellor faces an impossible fiscal trilemma: cut spending, but her party won't allow it. Borrow more, but the bond markets are already charging a ‘moron tax’. Or raise taxes further but with the UK arguably past the optimal point on the Laffer curve where additional taxation generates meaningful extra revenue, this risks being counterproductive. Meanwhile, food retailers face a perfect storm with National Insurance hikes feeding through to prices, new packaging rules adding £1.1bn costs, and rising wages pressuring margins. Any additional tax burden would worsen an already serious crisis for retailers and families alike.
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Scott Gallacher
Director at Rowley Turton
Higher food prices hit us all, but the poorest in society feel it the hardest. The Government needs to address this urgently. Rachel Reeves has previously described rules and red tape as the ‘boot on the neck’ of business, yet there’s little sign she intends to ease that pressure. In fact, the new packaging rules risk tying up businesses with yet more red tape – and will do nothing to bring down food prices.
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Josie Jones
Founder at The Mindful Cook
As a Village Larder co-ordinator in West Kilbride on the West Coast of Scotland, we see first-hand the impact rising food prices are having on local families. For many, even small increases on staples like bread, milk or mince can tip the balance between coping and struggling.

Policies that raise operating costs for retailers almost always filter down to shoppers, and those on the lowest incomes are hit the hardest. We would urge the Chancellor to avoid measures that add further pressure to the food system.

Community larders and food projects like ours are doing everything we can to keep food accessible and reduce waste, but we cannot fill the gap created by sustained food inflation. What we need from government is stability, fairness and policies that protect people’s ability to put affordable, nutritious food on the table.
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Benjamin Beck
Money Coach at Beck Money Coach
Household budgets are squeezed already! Any increases to business costs will be passed on to the consumer, which in turn could mean households simply cannot afford the same weekly food shop.