Seven in 10 mortgage brokers expect interest rates to rise again by January 2026

I think this survey may have been carried out in a different country. It certainly doesn’t reflect the feeling and opinions of the majority of brokers and economists that I speak with. The UK economy is weak, and so despite inflationary pressures it’s likely that the BOE will continue to reduce rates but at a slower rate than previously expected.

There has been so much instability in the market going back to the infamous mini budget in September 2022. For the last two and a half years, mortgage rates have been on a rollercoaster and just when things look to be improving yet another spanner is thrown in causing rates to spike again. We will continue on this path for some time to come given the state that we have with our own economy and decisions taken abroad. It has not been easy for mortgage holders to navigate the market and make decisions for the future, I do not see this changing any time soon.

Rising inflation is a growing threat, particularly with ongoing trade tensions and tariffs. However, the UK’s economy remains fragile post-budget and in urgent need of stimulus. While rate cuts are still possible, they’re likely to be slow and cautious given the current uncertainty and the MPC’s wary stance.

With so much uncertainty in the world right now, predicting what’s going to happen next week is challenging, let alone January 2026. Over the past couple of years, markets have been yo-yoing, and that’s likely to continue in the short term. Mortgage holders would be wise to act prudently by reviewing their mortgages as early as possible and keeping a close eye on the markets until they need to make a definite commitment

While economists debate the future of interest rates, the mortgage market tells its own story—clients are locking in deals now, fearing the worst. If seven in 10 brokers predict a rise by 2026, it suggests one thing: the era of ‘higher for longer’ isn’t over yet. Savvy borrowers should plan accordingly.

This is definitely not the sentiment I've been hearing in the industry, and I do wonder which brokers Butterfield was talking to! While some brokers may be factoring in persistent inflationary pressures or global economic uncertainty, the broader expectation has been that rates will hold steady or start to ease as inflation comes under control. The Bank of England has remained cautious, but a rate hike seems unlikely without a major economic shift. While it’s always possible that circumstances change, the idea of a higher base rate next year feels more pessimistic than the current data suggests.

On what planet was this survey carried out? I have yet to speak with a broker that doesn't think interest rates will drop, I have had many meetings with lenders economists and business development managers from Numerous lenders and they are all of the belief it will drop, the consensus seems to be the base rate will be around 2.75% to 3.5% by 2026. This article and survey shines a dim light on Mortgage Brokers as a whole and gives the perception that they don't really have a clue what they are talking about. In all honesty, I question the validity of this survey as I just can't believe any broker would stick their neck out their on such a proposterous claim, let alone be an advocate of that statement in the national media.