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Retail sales rise by 1.2% in April: "April's UK retail sales smashed forecasts"

ended 23. May 2025

Retail sales volumes (quantity bought) are estimated to have risen by 1.2% in April 2025, according to official data published this morning. This follows a rise of 0.1% in March 2025 (revised down from a rise of 0.4% in the last bulletin). Food store sales volumes grew strongly in April 2025, which retailers attributed to the good weather. Sales volumes rose by 1.8% in the three months to April 2025, when compared with the three months to January 2025. Newspage asked retail and market experts for their views, below.

4 responses from the Newspage community

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David BelleVerified
Founder and Trader at Fink Money
I run a model that is consumer staples versus consumer discretionary driven. Globally, this has been weighted towards consumer staples, leading me to get overweight CocaCola and Walmart lately. However in the UK, this has been even more pronounced. When this occurs, it leads to a change in growth regime towards a lower growth environment, and so retail sales suggesting higher food sales is exactly the shift in environment that leads to lower growth. I am waiting for a revision lower in the recent 0.7% growth number to confirm this, as had occurred in the few months leading into the end of 2024. If we look into the context of the numbers and don't take the headline for fact, that tends to give the best answer.
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Riz MalikVerified
Independent Financial Adviser at R3 Wealth
There appears to be a modest uptick in consumer confidence, helped in part by better weather (don’t laugh). However, UK retailers are still facing significant challenges. The Bank of England will be monitoring this closely, as retail performance is one of the indicators it considers when setting interest rates. Increased consumer demand can lead to higher prices. After the recent uptick in inflation, this may be concerning.
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Ken JamesVerified
Director at Contractor Mortgage Services
One swallow does not make a summer, and we are going to need a few more swallows to really start to feel the needle shift in the right direction. With the energy cap reduction and increase in spending data, the day has started well, let’s see if we can keep that momentum over a more sustained period.
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Harry MillsVerified
Director at Oku Markets
April's UK retail sales smashed forecasts and marked a fourth straight month of monthly gains. The m/m number was up 1.2% from March and driven by gains in groceries. Year-over-year, retail sales were up 5%, the highest such increase since February 2022. Furthermore, UK consumer confidence rose in May, reversing most of April's tariff-induced declines, driven by a somewhat more optimistic view of the economy and personal finances. The Bank of England's move to cut rates in May will have helped, but I wonder how long this confidence will last, given the resurgence in inflation and allowing time for April's anti-business tax hikes to wash through.