Copy article

Retail sales up 0.4% in December – thoughts?

ended 23. January 2026

The quantity of goods bought (volume) in retail sales is estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025 compared with Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2025. Supermarkets and non-store retailers' sales both fell following a strong Quarter 3 2025, Office for National Statistics data shows today.

Retail sales volumes are estimated to have risen by 0.4% in December 2025, following a fall of 0.1% in November 2025 (unrevised from our previous publication) and a fall of 0.8% in October 2025 (revised up from a 0.9% fall in our previous publication). Non-store retailers' volumes rose in December 2025, following falls in October and November, with online jewellers reporting that demand for precious metals picked up in December.

Annual sales volumes rose 1.3% over the year to 2025, with increases in both food and non-food stores, as well as non-store retailers.

  • What is your reaction to the data?
  • What does it say about the UK economy?
  • As a retailer, are you feeling the strain?

Responses asap please.

4 responses from the Newspage community

Copy all

Copy

Editor
Anita Wright
Chartered Financial Planner at Ribble Wealth Management
A 0.4% rise in December is a slight bounce, not a turning point. In other words, households remain highly selective: essentials hold up, discretionary spending does not. The “precious metals” uptick via online jewellers reads less like festive exuberance and more like defensive buying behaviour when confidence in purchasing power is fragile. The UK’s growth base is too thin to comfortably carry the state’s debt load; that leaves policymakers trapped between supporting activity and protecting sterling/market confidence, particularly as gilt yields and Bank of England balance sheet policy remain a live constraint. That environment makes it unlikely that consumer spending will drive a sustained recovery. Retailers are likely to feel the strain because a “better” month can simply reflect deeper discounting, which cuts margins, while costs such as wages, logistics and finance do not fall in line.
Copy

Platinum
Marty Bauer
Retail and Ecommerce Expert at Omnisend
Retailers will breathe a sigh of relief that last month saw a boost in sales, however it would have been a pretty bleak outlook for the high street if the Christmas shopping season had failed so badly.

Online sales picked up again in December, with jewellers reporting stronger demand for precious metals. That points to shoppers holding off on higher-value or giftable purchases until later in the season.

The pattern we’re seeing is one of delayed decision-making rather than lost demand. Consumers appear to be waiting longer, comparing prices more closely and committing only when they feel confident they’re getting genuine value.

Retailers who aligned promotions with real moments of intent, rather than relying on blanket discounting, are likely to have performed best in December. While the Boxing Day sales now often start in the days before Christmas, Brits welcome discounts as cost-of-living challenges still persist.
Copy

Nicholas Found
Head of Commercial Insights at Retail Economics
December brought little festive cheer for retailers. Beneath flat headline numbers sits a distinctly K-shaped retail landscape, with Christmas exposing a divide. Value-led players benefited from cautious consumer behaviour, while non-food felt the full force of fragile confidence.

Households spent smarter over Christmas, particularly in grocery. Consumers leaned heavily on promotions and shifted spend from eating out to premium at-home meals. Retailers combining strong value perception with quality credentials were the clear beneficiaries.

Discretionary non-food categories faced a toxic mix of weak demand, lingering uncertainty following the late November Budget, and margin-eroding promotions. Many retailers were forced to discount earlier and harder to defend market share, putting profitability under strain.

Retail is becoming increasingly polarised – between businesses responding with agility and those being left behind as the market reshapes around them.
Copy

Colette Mason
AI Ethics Consultant at Clever Clogs AI
This dataset points to fragility rather than momentum. Consumers are spending, but cautiously. They’re switching channels, timing purchases carefully, and prioritising perceived value or security. That’s an economy running on restraint, not confidence.

For retailers, yes, the strain is real. Not because people have stopped buying, but because they’re harder to persuade, slower to commit, and far less forgiving. Margin pressure, forecasting difficulty, and volatile month to month demand are the new normal for British retailers.