Positive economic feedback

At YADA Collective, Derby's alcohol-free and community-focused bar, we've had a fantastic January, recording a doubling of our monthly turnover compared to the previous year. After a challenging end to 2022 and renewed marketing/events efforts, we've seen a significant increase in people visiting the bar, both returning customers and first-time visitors. Customers have expressed keenness to venture out and are prioritising independent businesses in an effort to show their support. As the desire for healthier options and more authentic social spaces increases, we're optimistic about the coming months ahead.

Our business has picked up a lot since mid Jan and seems to be getting a lot busier. The economy isn't as doomed as many thought it would be and the latest Halifax House Price Index confirmed that January was a stalemate in terms of house prices. So no crash as many predicted.

A lot more first time buyers have resurfaced and come out of hiding. They can see the mortgage market is getting better and more affordable. As for sellers, their property prices aren't dropping as much as they thought it would - win win for all!

The better news is that energy prices aren't going to be increased as much as initially thought with energy prices dropping slowly. The prices will still impact a lot of families and individuals, but this seems to be the start of the recovery.

We received a record number of new recruitment vacancies last week, and companies are pushing forward with their hiring plans across the UK. This suggests companies are feeling far more positive about the UK economy after the recent news.

The mortgage and property market certainly seems to be ticking along nicely. Sure, the lunacy of the last few post COVID years has abated but mortgage rates aren't as bad as people think, lenders are jostling for business and reducing rates even further, house prices are holding steady and business is brisk amongst estate agents.

As a practitioner working in mortgages for 35 years now I am seeing what is a promising start to 2023 for the property/finance arena - from first-time buyers, home movers, people buying more equity in their shared ownerships, remortgagors, and landlords. A good start to what is looking like a busy year ahead.

It's no secret that we have invested heavily in the last decade on technology and all I can say is that I am very grateful that we have with the level of client activity that is upon us.

January and early February have definitely been more positive than we expecting at the end of 2022. Although the news from lenders such as Halifax and Nationwide has been that house prices are dropping we haven't necessarily noticed that in the local area.

With the recent calm down in the financial markets we are finding that customers are starting to realise that this is the new normal and it might not be as bad as they thought it was going to be. This means a degree of confidence has returned to the housing market especially bearing in mind that there still are not enough properties for sale in the UK compared to the number of buyers who are looking.

January and early February have definitely been more positive than we expecting at the end of 2022. Although the news from lenders such as Halifax and Nationwide has been that house prices are dropping we haven't necessarily noticed that in the local area.

With the recent calm down in the financial markets we are finding that customers are starting to realise that this is the new normal and it might not be as bad as they thought it was going to be. This means a degree of confidence has returned to the housing market especially bearing in mind that there still are not enough properties for sale in the UK compared to the number of buyers who are looking.

The Blind Badger Cocktail Company has had an incredible start to 2023. Our sales in January were up 19% compared to the previous year and we have seen a 6% increase in returning customers. Despite our cocktail kits being non-essential products, demand has been extraordinary and we are very excited for the year ahead.

I think there is some positive air in the economy and in the latest outlook but I'm minded of the adage "a poor politician uses statistics like a drunk uses a lamppost - for support rather than enlightenment". Yes we do seem to have swerved a recession but I think there is still some business anxiety - what we do need is for the Government to set out clearly its mid-term financial strategy. The announcement this week of the new ministries is welcome and should provide positive growth, but we need to hear what they will do to be convinced that this is a real positive foundation rather than simply rearranging the deckchairs.

It's been a very strong start to the year with new wedding and events bookings up 42% in January. There was a massive surge of new enquiries in January 2022, with clients re-booking events that had been postponed during the pandemic. I thought we'd hit a peak back then and the numbers would start to level out or even drop off. How wrong was I?

Recession, what recession?
If the mortgage market acts as a yardstick for the wider economy and if January is a good barometer for the rest of the year then the doomsday predictions post-mini-budget are looking both wild and fanciful.
Consumer confidence was hit hard last year but as the increasingly positive economic predictions trickle down to the end consumer coupled with some interest rates now starting with a 3 (as opposed to a 6) both first-time and next-time buyers are resurfacing with renewed optimism and commitment to buy.

More positive sentiment has come through from businesses that we are working with in reaction to recent Bank of England comments and economic data. Conversations include help to meet demand and growth opportunities - and an increase in conversations about asset finance, which is all about investment, opportunities to do business and growth for a company by getting them the machinery, equipment and vehicles to deliver for their clients.