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Mortgage rate predictions for 2024

Journalist: Ruby Hinchliffe, The Telegraph

ended 02. January 2024

Halifax has cut rates by 0.92% today, and Leeds BS by 0.49%. Kensington has also withdrawn rates, presumably with a view to reprice.

We want to hear brokers' 2024 predictions for rates. How low might they go? What can we expect in the short-term (next weeks/months), and the long-term (next year)?

5 responses from the Newspage community

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Editor
Ranald Mitchell
Director at bad credit mortgage specialists Charwin Mortgages
An unprecedented rate war is well underway and 2024 will see some seismic moves in rates compared to 2023. With Net mortgage lending predicted to be lower than last year, mortgage providers will be pulling out all the stops, not just to acquire new business, but also to protect their existing customer base. With lenders vying for business, newbuild initiatives being rolled out and pent-up frustration from an inert purchase market in 2023, the lending forecasts may well be well off the mark.
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Darryl Dhoffer
Founder at The Mortgage Geezer
I think we need to buckle up, as I still think we have a bumpy ride. We are still amid a cost of living crisis. My gut feeling is that Threadneedle Street will keep base rates on hold, when they meet next month, and for the first quarter of this year only adjustments on low LTV products will be reduced by lenders - I think the biggest reductions will be on retention products. Long-term it is anyone's guess, however, if inflation continues to fall this does put pressure on the Bank Of England to cut rates sooner than maybe forecasted - in this game of rates, nothing is certain except the uncertainty.
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Peter Stokes
Director of Mortgages at Davidson Deem
My first set of research on return from the Christmas and New Year break showed several smaller lenders near the top of the pile. This is undoubtedly down to the big players postponing rate reductions before Christmas, knowing they would be working with a skeleton staff and many brokers would be shut down for the holidays.
Now we are all back, I fully expect the big hitters to start lowering their rates to reflect the reduced cost of funds. Maybe we will even see an elusive 5-year fixed rate starting with a '3' in the coming days!
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Charles Breen
Founder at C B
In the short term we will see slight but regular decreases in rates, but over the longer term it will be much larger reductions in rates as the bank of england slowly react and begin reducing the base rate. The speed at which the bank of england reacts is similar to the speed a oil tanker can turn, glacial!

With further reductions in rates it will massively help people remortgaging and also spur people on to move home and first time buyers to take the plunge as they will all want to time it before house prices will see strong growth again.
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Anil Mistry
Director and Mortgage Broker at RNR Mortgage Solutions
Several lenders have swiftly slashed rates in a dynamic start to the month, signalling a promising quarter ahead. While the Bank of England is expected to hold the base rate steady in their upcoming session, all eyes are on May 2024 for the potential rate reduction. This anticipated move could spark a cascade of mortgage rate decreases, perfectly timed for borrowers nearing the end of their current deals, as well as newcomers to the market. It's set to be a whirlwind period for brokers, who will be at the forefront, navigating these shifts to secure the most competitive rates for their clients before mortgage completions or product transfers lock-in.