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Mortgage market in 2025

Journalist: Carmen Reichman, FTAdviser

ended 21. November 2024

Dear mortgage advisers

I've got two requests for you:

1)

I'm looking for a comment for a story on FT Adviser looking ahead to 2025. It's a tax planning story, so looking at this from the SDLT angle - how do you think the property market will fare over 2025? Will there be more transactions or fewer, will prices go up or down, how will landlords behave - will they increase their portfolios or decrease them? Do you think there may be some surprises on property taxes in the March budget?

Who will be the winners and losers in 2025?

2) 

I'm looking for 3 advisers to join a 30min podcast recording in early Jan (pencilled in for 7th at 9:30am). It's going to be a similar thing, looking ahead to the mortgage and property market of 2025. Remote joining possible, though it always sounds better in person in the studio in central London (FT offices).

Please let me know if you're interested. I apologise in advance if the 3 slots go quickly, unfortunately we can't accommodate any more guests.

All the best

Carmen

carmen.reichman@ft.com

6 responses from the Newspage community

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Michelle Lawson
Director at Lawson Financial
2025 will be interesting for sure. Smaller landlords will continue to exit the industry due to taxation and regulation burden. We are seeing larger landlords/investors increasing their portfolios as they can afford to weather the storms. We can live in hope for housing to become a senior Government concern given the housing crisis but it is still a feeder role for other departments. Until it is taken seriously there will be little change. The Spring budget could be the deferrment of further pain but we live in hope for common sense to prevail and for them to undo some of their savage damaging recent decisions and kickstart the economy and put money back in to the pockets of people and business. As much as a change and modernisation to Stamp Duty is welcomed, this was changed just in October so I can't see this being amended again. Stamp Duty receipts continue to fall and this would be an easy win to get the property market moving again- sometimes less creates more.
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Mike Staton
Director at Staton Mortgages
The property market will boom in 2025, i believe we will eventually see a sub 3% base rate after the summer. I dont believe loabours financial hand grenade will have too long a lasting effect on inflation. The remortgage market will also be a massive driving point for the mortgage industry as many people will be coming off of their 2 year fixed rates onto lower rates. The lenders will definitely be the winners though, they lowered 5 year rates to encourage people to lock in for longer, these clients will see the error of their un-advised ways and swallow huge ERC penalties in order to come off of the stupidly high rates they fixed in for so long for, although many did this on their own advice, im sure they will find a way to blame somebody else for this.

The banks have played this crisis well and will be in for as bumper windfall in 2025.

I would be happy to participate in the podcast
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Simon Bridgland
Director at Charwin Private Clients
I can see a race to the cliff edge in Q1, as buyers try and beat the SDLT change deadline. Post April, so much will pivot on how worldwide events pan out. Worsening conflict could make buyers simply put plans on hold whilst markets hope for a swift end and recovery. If however conflict can be ended in a day, as per one Americans claim, we could see early signs of confidence, removing market jitters, paving the way for lower inflation and lower prices of fixed money giving borrowers a green light that things are rosey. The budget in March will be key in determining the remainder of 2025, perhaps more important than the sorry tale we were told In October.
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Ken James
Director at Contractor Mortgage Services
2025 is going to be a testing year for both residential purchases and the Buy to let market, we will have a flurry of First-time buyers aiming to beat the changes in stamp duty, As always there will be rates ending, and clients needing to find new deals. I feel that stress levels for brokers will continue to remain high as we manage the markets ever changing landscape and deal with the client’s emotional rollercoaster journeys. Experienced Landlords will continue to build their portfolios but I do sense that those who may have been thinking of stepping into the buy to let space will have taken pause given the additional costs now in place from the budget, and this will dampen the enquiries for BTL.
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Dariusz Karpowicz
Director at Albion Financial Advice
The UK property market in 2025 appears poised for a significant shift, with Q1 likely to see an acceleration in transactions as buyers race to beat potential Stamp Duty Land Tax changes. Market forecasts suggest a promising uptick in mortgage lending to 3.2% (up from 1.4% in 2024), bolstered by anticipated interest rate cuts and cooling inflation, potentially seeing base rates drop below 3% post-summer.
The landscape presents a tale of two markets: larger institutional landlords are strategically expanding their portfolios, particularly in high-yield areas like university towns, while smaller landlords continue their exodus due to mounting regulatory and tax pressures. The banking sector appears well-positioned to capitalise on the remortgage market, though the Chancellor's March budget looms as a critical turning point - particularly regarding any potential SDLT reforms that could reshape market dynamics for both investors and first-time buyers alike. 2) I would be happy to join.
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Kundan Bhaduri
Property Developer and Portfolio Landlord at The Kushman Group
The property market in 2025 promises a mix of recovery and challenges. Mortgage lending is forecast to grow 3.2%, up from 1.5% in 2024, driven by expected interest rate cuts and cooling inflation. Lower borrowing costs should encourage more transactions, with first-time buyers benefiting the most as affordability improves slightly. However, stretched incomes and high living costs will continue to temper demand. Landlords, however, face pivotal decisions. Rising rental demand will tempt portfolio expansion, particularly in university towns and major cities, where rents remain strong. Yet, many small landlords will reduce portfolios to dodge punitive taxes such as the 5% SDLT surcharge on additional properties. If the March budget introduces new SDLT thresholds or tax relief adjustments, we could see significant market shifts. Geopolitical uncertainties and economic recovery will also play a role. We expect house prices to rise slightly in affordable regions, but London will be subdued.