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Missile strikes - will mortgage rate rise again?

ended 08. June 2026

With Iran and Israel striking each other overnight, and Yemen also launching a missile at Israel, there are growing concerns the ceasefire in the Middle East could unravel. One question: could the renewed tensions feed through into higher mortgage rates and what's your advice to borrowers?

6 responses from the Newspage community

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Thomas Boughton
Founder at Artillium Real Estate Finance
If strikes continue, there is a good chance they could put upward pressure on fixed mortgage rates. Unusually, tracker mortgages have been considerably cheaper than fixed rates for much of this year, although we are still awaiting the Bank of England’s next base rate decision. In periods of uncertainty, lenders often reprice fixed rates at short notice. That said, this is where a good broker adds value. Clients need to be reassured that they are not necessarily tied to the rate available when they apply. If rates improve before completion, we can move them onto a more favourable option. Tools such as Nationwide’s rate reservation facility provide additional protection, allowing us to secure today’s rate for up to 90 days while still benefiting from any reductions. This proved invaluable for many clients following the first strikes earlier this year.
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Riz Malik
Independent Financial Adviser at R3 Wealth
Oil has gone up by just under 5%, after the weekends missile exchange so the outlook is not great. As strategic reserves deplete and over 3 months into this disruption we could see bigger spikes in mortgage pricing as a ceasefire seems less and less likely.
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Emma Jones
Managing Director at Whenthebanksaysno.co.uk
Renewed tensions in the Middle East are already sending the oil price north and, if events escalate further, mortgage rates could also start creeping up. In a market as volatile as this, we encourage all borrowers, both first-time buyers and those approaching the end of their current mortgage deal, to lock into a rate just in case rates start to rise. Being proactive has never been more important.
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Harry Goodliffe
Director at HTG Mortgages
Rising oil prices are often where more financial pain begins. Prices have already jumped this morning on fears the Middle East conflict could escalate further. Banks hate uncertainty, and when markets get nervous, borrowers often feel it too. This won't send mortgage rates soaring overnight, but if higher oil prices fuel inflation, homeowners end up paying the price.
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Manooch Suree
Director at Zinga Financial Services
Yes, renewed tensions in the Middle East can feed through into mortgage pricing, even here in the UK. The key link is energy markets, if conflict pushes oil and gas prices higher, that can reignite inflation concerns and lead to higher swap rates, which lenders use to price fixed rate mortgages. We’ve already seen in recent months how quickly global events can affect mortgage rates, with some lenders repricing products upwards when markets become volatile. It doesn’t necessarily mean rates will surge overnight, but it can slow or reverse the downward trend borrowers had been hoping for. My advice to borrowers is not to panic, but not to sit on their hands either. If your mortgage deal is ending in the next three to six months, now is a sensible time to review your options and potentially secure a rate. Most lenders allow you to lock in a deal in advance and switch again later if rates improve before completion.
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Gaurav Shukla
CEO at Home Me Mortgages
It has the potential to put upward pressure on mortgage rates, but only if the situation becomes prolonged.

The main concern is energy prices. Escalating tensions between Iran, Israel and regional groups can push oil prices higher, which in turn can fuel inflation. If inflation remains elevated, markets may scale back expectations of future rate cuts, causing swap rates to rise and potentially increasing the cost of fixed-rate mortgages.

At this stage, it’s a risk rather than a certainty. Markets will be watching closely to see whether this is a short-lived flare-up or the start of a more sustained period of instability in the region.