Looking for predictions of where mortgage rates could go in percentage terms this week for The i Paper

My sense is that if swap rates stay where they are, or push higher again, mainstream fixed mortgage rates could rise by roughly another 0.15% to 0.35% this week, with some lenders moving faster than others depending on funding pressure and appetite. The bigger story is not just the level of rates, but the speed of the repricing. We have already seen hundreds of products pulled in a very short space of time, which is exactly what unsettles borrowers and brokers alike. I do not think this is a mini-Budget repeat, because the scale is still smaller, but it is the sharpest reminder in a while that mortgage pricing can turn quickly when global events hit inflation expectations and swap markets. If volatility persists, lenders are likely to stay defensive and rates could keep edging up before the market stabilises. This is not 2022 all over again, but it is a clear reminder that mortgage rates do not need much notice to move sharply higher.

Mortgage pricing can turn on a sixpence, and right now lenders are watching swap rates like hawks. If those stay elevated, we could still see another 0.10–0.25 percentage points added by some lenders this week, though it’s more likely to come in small, incremental reprices rather than a dramatic jump.

For brokers, the pace of changes recently has felt a little like a mini-version of the volatility we saw after the 2022 mini-budget. We’re not in that level of chaos, products aren’t vanishing overnight, but the frequency of repricing will feel uncomfortably familiar.

The key difference is that this time it isn’t politics spooking the markets, it’s stubborn uncertainty around inflation and the future path of interest rates. Mortgage rates today are being driven less by where the Bank of England base rate is now, and more by where markets think it will end up.
The mortgage market isn’t panicking, but it’s definitely a little twitchy at the moment.

Mortgage rates don't send calendar invites before they move. After months of gradual easing, geopolitical turmoil and oil price spikes have flipped the script in under a week. Swap rates are up, lenders are pulling products, and repricing is happening at a pace that will feel uncomfortably familiar to anyone who lived through autumn 2022.
If swap rates hold or rise further, expect another 0.15% to 0.35% on mainstream fixed rates this week alone. The difference this time is the trigger; it is not domestic politics but global conflict and sticky inflation expectations driving the uncertainty. Rates do not need much of an excuse to climb when markets are this nervous.

Mortgage rates have caught a bout of geopolitical nerves this week, but this still looks more like volatility than panic. The move above 5% matters because it dents confidence and grabs headlines, but I would be surprised if this turned into a major fresh surge unless the Iran conflict worsens significantly or markets start pricing in a more lasting inflation shock. We could see a little more upward movement in the short term, but probably in fractions rather than leaps, perhaps another 0.10 to 0.20 percentage points on some products, rather than a rerun of the mini-Budget chaos. The key difference is that this feels like a risk adjustment driven by uncertainty and swap rate nerves, not a full-scale breakdown in mortgage pricing.

Markets have been volatile recently in response to the current international situation. When this kind of uncertainty emerges, lenders often move quickly to protect themselves from short term funding cost spikes, which can lead to deals being withdrawn or repriced at short notice.

However, these kinds of moves are typically defensive and reactive. We saw similar behaviour during previous periods of market stress, where mortgage rates moved sharply in the short term before settling once financial markets stabilised.

From our perspective, the underlying outlook hasn’t materially changed. Inflation is still expected to ease over time and markets continue to anticipate interest rate cuts from the Bank of England later in the year.

For that reason, we believe the current repricing reflects short term caution rather than a long term shift in the direction of mortgage rates. If geopolitical tensions ease and financial markets calm, we would expect mortgage pricing to correct accordingly