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Land Registry House Price Index Nov 23

ended 17. January 2024

At 09:30, the Land Registry will be publishing its November house price index. As this data has a time lag, it's likely to be underwhelming as it will reflect turmoil earlier in 2023. Few Qs:

  • Following this morning's inflation data, which showed an unexpected - albeit marginal - increase, could this impact demand and apply further downward pressure on house prices?
  • It's now unlikely that the Bank of England will cut Bank Rate in Q1. Will this take the momentum out of the property market that has been growing over the past few months?
  • What are you expecting will happen to house prices in 2024?

7 responses from the Newspage community

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Andrew Montlake
Managing Director at Coreco
House prices continue to bump along the bottom and given the time lag in this data the weak data comes as no surprise. If the start of the year is anything to go by, demand for housing is still on the rise, and as long as mortgage rates do not increase once more we can expect to see a continuation of small price falls with improvements later in the year. This will be location dependent as high demand areas will see stronger house price stability than others. Whilst today's small rise in inflation is a stark reminder that nothing can be taken for granted, it should be viewed as a metaphorical speed bump rather than a fundamental change of direction. Those in the mortgage market will be watching SWAP rates closely and it could mean a slight pause to the New Year rate wars we have seen, but competition between lenders is unlikely to wane. It is a timely reminder that it is a fools' folly to try to play the market and locking into a rate early is a safer play for many.
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Ross McMillan
Owner/Mortgage Advisor at Blue Fish Mortgage Solutions
Scotland, as this data once again shows, is proving the exception to the rule. Sentiment reigns supreme in the housing market and in Scotland it's very positive at present. Whilst a modest uptick in inflation may create a degree of uncertainty, it's crucial to recognise that buyer enthusiasm and activity have experienced a noticeable revival in the opening weeks of 2024. There's a palpable energy in the air, suggesting a sustained demand that shows no signs of waning in the near future. The upshot of this, specifically in Scotland, is that already stubbornly robust house prices are likely to show further steady growth throughout 2024 rather than any sharp falls.
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Darryl Dhoffer
Founder at The Mortgage Geezer
House prices will be under scrutiny following this morning's inflation data but a slight uptick in December to 4% shouldn't wobble the property boat too much. The lag in the Land Registry data has once again resulted in underwhelming house price data but we believe the market will hold firm as we head deeper into the first quarter of 2024. Mortgage rates are still far more competitive than they have been for some time, which will appeal to borrowers. My advice for borrowers and would-be home buyers is don't hold off from securing a mortgage deal in the expectation of further cuts, as the mortgage arena will have ups and downs for sure as we coast through 2024.
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Stephen Perkins
Managing Director at Yellow Brick Mortgages
That was then and this is now. And while inflation edged up slightly in December, sentiment now is considerably more upbeat than during the summer and Autumn of last year. It is unlikely that Wednesday's slight increase in inflation will shake borrowers' confidence in the housing market. There has been a bright start to the property market in 2024 and the blip in inflation will not halt that momentum.
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Justin Moy
Managing Director at EHF Mortgages
A lot has changed since the conditions that shaped this data. There is now a lot more positivity around property, which should translate into future Land Registry house price reports. However, if interest rate cuts are jilted by the inflation data, that might just take the edge off expected property purchase activity, and slow momentum accordingly. Do lenders hold back or continue cutting but on potentially smaller margins for the greater good of the property market long term? That is the big question right now and we are all watching on.
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Gary Bush
Financial Adviser at MortgageShop.com
This data was always on the cards after the turbulence and subdued activity we say in 2023. Let us hope that the Bank of England won't throw the baby out with the bathwater and react with a knee-jerk reaction to the marginal uptick in inflation last month. Having seen good increases in mortgage enquiries in 2024 so far, for both first-time buyers and homemovers, the inflation data is unlikely to wipe out the positivity for now. The property market will be largely unaffected by the small blip in the wrong direction of inflation for December.
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Graham Cox
Director at Bridging Hub
A lot is being read into the jump in the inflation rate to 4.0%, but it's entirely possible this is a minor bump in the road, and the rate of price increases will continue to fall towards the two percent target. If that happens, I think house prices will slowly drift down by about 5% in 2024. However, there's still great uncertainty around events in the Middle East, and to a lesser extent Ukraine. Escalations in either of these arenas could see inflation rise and interest rates stay higher for longer.