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Land Registry December 23 House Price Index - reaction

ended 14. February 2024

This morning at 09:30, the Land Registry published its December House Price Index. Main points below. Newspage asked property experts and brokers for their views, bottom.

  • Average UK house prices decreased by 1.4% in the 12 months to December 2023 (provisional estimate), up from a decrease of 2.3% (revised estimate) in the 12 months to November 2023. 
  • The average UK house price was £285,000 in December 2023, which was £4,000 lower than 12 months previous. 
  • Average house prices over the 12 months to December 2023 decreased in England to £302,000 (negative 2.1%), decreased in Wales to £214,000 (negative 2.5%), but increased in Scotland to £190,000 (3.3%). 
  • Average house prices increased by 1.4% to £178,000 in the year to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2023 in Northern Ireland. 
  • Within England, the North West had the highest annual percentage change in the 12 months to December 2023 (1.2%), while London saw the lowest (negative 4.8%). 

9 responses from the Newspage community

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Kirsty Wells0
Director at Blueprint Mortgages & Protection
The annual decrease in prices was expected due to the time lag in this data but still shows a slight improvement compared to the year to November. In the fourth quarter of 2023, activity in the property market definitely picked up. We had the busiest December ever for mortgage enquiries. Demand for property in 2024 has been high, with lots of properties that were stagnating last year having offers made in January. If mortgage rates drop further in 2024, and we get a cut to the base rate, I think that will do more to boost sentiment than any property market incentive that could be announced in the Spring Budget.
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Michelle LawsonVerified
Director at Lawson Financial
Despite the negative annual growth figure, the tail end of last year saw things pick up and 2024 has kicked off to a good start with the wheels of the property market starting to turn faster. An incentive in the Budget on 6th March will be welcomed by many, however caution should be applied as we don’t want to reverse the inflationary downward trajectory.
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Justin MoyVerified
Managing Director at EHF Mortgages
We've definitely seen more confident buyers returning to the market since the start of the year, seizing the opportunity to move given reduced house prices, better priced mortgages and a level of pent-up demand. Our purchase applications were up 10 times what we saw in January 2023, with many first-time buyers starting their mortgage journeys and asking for their budgets.
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Stephen PerkinsVerified
Managing Director at Yellow Brick Mortgages
Though this data shows prices are down on an annual basis, it paints a picture of how the market was several months previously, and the picture now is really quite different. December saw demand pick up as mortgage rates decreased and 2024 has started with a tsunami of enthusiasm and enquiries from potential homebuyers, with growing confidence that mortgage rates have peaked and house prices will start bouncing back. The latest static inflation data will see consumer confidence continue to grow, and no doubt there will be some property market incentives announced prior to the forthcoming General Election.
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Craig FishVerified
Director at Lodestone Mortgages
Enquiries have certainly increased from first-time buyers and those hoping to upsize in the latter stages of 2023 and 2024, as mortgage rates started to reduce. However, there is still a struggle with a shortage of property in the market, which in turn is helping house prices be more resilient than expected, although Land Registry data is likely to show a drop in values due to its historical nature. Better than expected inflation data out today will likely bolster feelings of positivity, but the real trigger for the property market is going to be that first base rate cut.
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Ranald MitchellVerified
Director at bad credit mortgage specialists Charwin Mortgages
Despite annual price growth being in the red according to this latest index, homebuyers are showing signs of getting their mojo back, with a notable increase in interest from movers and first-time buyers. Add to this the lure of the Government-backed 99% mortgages, many more could jump into action, when and if the low despoit scheme arrives. With all this positive activity, it will surely underpin average values, but it's unlikely we'll see any boom in house prices this year.
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Peter Stamford0
Mortgage Expert at Stamford Home Finance
Demand for property has been high in 2024 to date. The estate agents next door look rushed off their feet. We have been busy with applications since the beginning of the year. However December was dissapointing and I expect this to be shown in the December House Price Index. As for the future, Michael Gove featured prominently in the weekend news cycle, discussing the property market and potential government measures to aid younger borrowers. However, his comments lacked concrete proposals, offering only vague suggestions of Stamp Duty reductions and 1% deposit schemes. It appeared as though he was gauging public opinion on these ideas. While the borrowers I have spoken with are very excited, professionals in the financial sector remain cautious about these proposals, which would be announced in the Spring Budget, which undoubtedly aim to garner election votes.
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Graham CoxVerified
Director at Bridging Hub
Demand for property has been strong so far this year, helping to support prices. But buyers should still proceed with caution when making offers, as property values have not fallen nearly enough to compensate for the doubling or tripling in mortgage rates over the past couple of years. Sadly, many vendors are distressed sellers, unable to refinance affordably, and looking to downsize. And with the UK on the cusp of a recession, house prices could easily fall this year.
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Akhil Mair0
Director at Our Mortgage Broker
The dip in mortgage rates unquestionably stirred some interest in the fourth quarter of last year, but the surge of buyers hasn't materialised quite yet. Demand in 2024 has been mixed, falling short of expectations. The upcoming Spring Budget announcement may inject much-needed enthusiasm. While 4% inflation stability offers some reassurance to buyers, inflation is still double the target. High anticipation surrounds the Spring Budget, with hopes for impactful incentives like reduced property taxes, to revitalise the market. Geopolitical tensions and economic shifts could further impact the property market, underscoring the need for proactive measures to incentivise investments and aid first-time buyers amid uncertainty