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"The current jobs market is as bleak as I have ever seen it"

ended 15. October 2024

The UK unemployment rate was estimated at 4.0% in June to August 2024, below estimates of a year ago, and decreased in the latest quarter, according to the Office for National Statistics. Meanwhile, the estimated number of vacancies in the UK decreased in July to September 2024, by 34,000 on the quarter to 841,000. Vacancies decreased on the quarter for the 27th consecutive period but are still above pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic levels.

Annual growth in employees' average regular earnings (excluding bonuses) in Great Britain was 4.9% in June to August 2024, and annual growth in total earnings (including bonuses) was 3.8%. This total annual growth is affected by the NHS and civil service one-off payments made in June, July and August 2023.

 Newspage asked experts for their views, which will appear below until 09:00.

4 responses from the Newspage community

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Kate Underwood
Managing Director / HR Director at Kate Underwood HR and Training
As an HR consultant, I’m seeing growing concern among employers about the upcoming Budget, especially in light of the proposed Employment Rights Bill. Many small businesses are hesitant to make significant hiring decisions until they know what financial pressures they’ll be facing. The potential for increased statutory costs, like expanded sick pay and parental leave, alongside new regulations, could have a big impact on their ability to manage budgets effectively. Employers are understandably cautious, waiting to see if the Budget provides any relief or additional support to offset these increased obligations. With the combined weight of new employment regulations and financial uncertainty, many are taking a "wait-and-see" approach, putting recruitment plans on hold. The government needs to carefully balance worker protections with practical support for businesses, or we risk stalling job growth at a critical time for the economy.
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Ken Brotherston
CEO at TALiNT Partners
The current jobs market is as bleak as I have ever seen it and there is no clear end in sight. The combination of sluggish growth and political uncertainty mean that most employers are not hiring unless they really have to. There are certainly some sectors and jobs where the outlook is more positive but, overall, it is very challenging. As the economy strenghtens most people would hope to see an improvement, but in 2025 we will start to feel the impact of AI on the jobs market. People won't necessarily be laid off. It will be more likely that the improving economy doesn't translate into jobs growth. Worrying times ahead.
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Matthew Knight
Independent Strategist and Freelancing Advocate at Freelancing.Support
We're still seeing many freelancers really struggling to find work. Where projects are available, day rates are depressed and contracts are often 'zero-rights employment', i.e. asking individuals to work like an employee or inside IR35 by defining their working hours and location, but not providing employee rights, such as sick pay or holiday pay. IPSE data shows the average freelancing day rates are down by almost £100, and we expect a long hard winter for many freelancers and small businesses.
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Gabriel McKeown
Head of Macroeconomics at Sad Rabbit - Substack Newsletter
The labour market is dancing to its own tune as the latest figures suggest it remains tighter than anticipated. With a remarkably resilient labour market, falling unemployment and slowing wage growth, we could be entering a Goldilocks scenario for the UK economy. However, these mixed signals may present a challenge for the BoE when it comes to deciding its next policy moves. The cooling wage growth offers a glimmer of hope for those anticipating interest rate cuts. However, the tight labour market, as evidenced by falling unemployment and strong job creation, may give policymakers pause. The central bank now faces a delicate decision, with market expectations leaning towards at least one more rate cut this year, but the resilience of the labour market could complicate this outlook. UK equity markets may see modest gains with the resilient job market buoying confidence, however gilt yields are likely to edge lower due to cooling wage growth, reflecting eased inflationary concerns.