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Halifax May 2024 house price index

ended 06. June 2024

On Friday morning at 07:00, the Halifax is publishing its May house price index. Last week, the Nationwide HPI said UK house prices increased by 0.4% in May, resulting in a slight pickup in the annual rate of house price growth to 1.3%, from 0.6% in April. The Nationwide said buyers are proving resilient in the face of affordability issues. Ahead of this, a few questions.

  • What will be the best General Election outcome for the UK property market, and why?
  • Do you expect a late summer surge in activity once the General Election is behind us?
  • How's demand right now? Are borrowers really proving resilient in the face of higher mortgage rates and affordability?
  • Which sub-sectors of the UK residential property market are especially busy, or especially quiet, right now - and why?

Any other thoughts and insights, send them across.

7 responses from the Newspage community

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Editor
Stephen Perkins
Managing Director at Yellow Brick Mortgages
Static is a fair summary of the market right now. House prices are remaining firm despite all the financial pressures coming from the high base rate. The cost of living crisis has eased off and wage growth has proved resilient. It feels like the market is holding its breath at present, awaiting either a base rate reduction or a new government before a large exhale. The ECB cutting rates yesterday could see the Bank of England follow suit, if not this month then very soon. The second half of 2024 could be huge for the property market if that first cut comes over the summer.
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Andrew Montlake
Managing Director at Coreco
Demand in the capital is starting to filter back, with many eager to get on and buy before the election rather than waiting to see what happens after it. In certain high-demand areas, we are once again seeing multiple offers, sealed bids and properties being sold over the asking price, as buyers have now re-anchored themselves to the new interest rate price point. First-time buyers are especially keen to buy and those lucky enough to have a deposit funded by the Bank of Mum and Dad are eager to escape an ever-escalating rental spiral. For them, interest rates have now eased to a level comparable to, or better than, monthly rental costs. We hope a change in Government brings a sensible long-term housing plan led by one Housing Minister that delivers unification between residential ownership, social housing and the private rental sector.
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Craig Fish
Director at Lodestone Mortgages
Unlike politicians, the buyers we speak to are living in the real world. They are enquiring about mortgages well within their affordability range, and the interest from first-time buyers in particular is growing. This acceptance of higher rates is enabling the price resilience that we are seeing, much to the dismay of the doom mongers. The result of the election is almost a foregone conclusion and we will be welcoming a new party to the leadership of the UK. A change in government is already widely priced into current mortgage offerings, and from what we're seeing the general public don't really care because the housing policies are almost identical, and as always the same old problems will remain unsolved. However, once the dust has settled a base rate reduction is widely expected and this could result in a very positive second half of 2024.
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Dariusz Karpowicz
Director at Albion Financial Advice
Demand now is slightly higher than a few months ago, but higher mortgage rates and steady prices continue to challenge buyers, especially those on lower incomes. Regarding the General Election, no promises have been made yet by the main parties that would significantly help the housing market. In the past, Labour has suggested making life harder for landlords by tightening regulations. This could lead to a surge in small landlords selling their investment properties, potentially driving rents up further. Borrowers are proving resilient, but the sub-sectors seeing the most activity are first-time buyers and those looking to remortgage, while the higher end of the market remains quieter due to affordability constraints.
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Oliver Fish
Director at Oliver & Co.
It doesn’t matter whether labour or conservatives get in power as their economic and housing plans are virtually the same.

Most of the UK property market has been affected negatively over the last few years by the uncertainty caused mainly from Brexit, Corona, Lock Downs and interest rate rises.

Property values have softened across the country especially in Central London where entry prices are much higher and borrowing can work out to be very expensive.

Once we have a political party confirmed for the future and the interest rates start to come down (we are expecting this within the next few months) buyer confidence and demand will increase and house prices will stabilise and start to climb upwards.
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William Page
Head of Global Sales at IP Global
We're seeing a definite rise in buyer interest. Many people who were priced out due to rising interest rates are re-entering the market, while others who were waiting on the sidelines are now eager to purchase. The rental market has seen a significant influx, but there's a pent-up demand for homeownership. A potential drop in interest rates could trigger a surge in buying activity, especially considering the current low inventory levels. This could lead to a competitive market with multiple offers on available properties.
The upcoming election might cause some investors to hold off on making decisions until there's more clarity on the political landscape. However, the fundamental need for housing remains constant regardless of the election outcome. People will still need a place to live, and homeownership continues to be a desirable option for many. While the election might lead to a temporary dip in activity, the overall market is expected to remain resilient.
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Graham Cox
Director at Bridging Hub
Housing policy can only improve with a change of government. After countless housing ministers over the past 14 years, none of whom seem remotely concerned by the housing crisis they've helped to create, we need radical reform of the UK property market.

That means abolishing the right to buy, building up the UK's social housing stock, passing the renters reform bill, and including house prices in the 2% inflation target so that housing becomes more affordable.