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Halifax HPI October 2022

ended 06. November 2022

On Monday morning at 07:00, we're getting the latest Halifax House Price Index for October. Following this week's rate rise and the Bank of England predicting the longest recession ever, what's going to happen to the property market in the next 12 months? And how were activity levels and demand in October in your experience? Did it drop off a cliff as mortgage rates soared and the government imploded? By all means copy and paste responses to previous alerts to save you time and tweak as you see fit. Remember: a journalist will only tend to use a few lines from a quote so a paragraph or two max is all you need to write. 

4 responses from the Newspage community

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Riz Malik
Independent Financial Adviser at R3 Wealth
House prices have been rising faster than wages for a number of years, due to the ultra low interest rate environment making it cheap to borrow money and the stamp duty holiday introduced during the pandemic. But recent rate hikes, political ineptitude, and soaring inflation have accelerated the inevitable correction. If the housing market drops 30%, as some are predicting, Rishi can forget winning the next General Election and may as well join Matt Hancock on I'm a Celebrity. The number of people facing negative equity and repossessions would go through the roof. Our new PM, fortunately, is a clever guy. If anyone can find a solution to our current economic predicament that has been exacerbated by the previous short-lived administration, it is Rishi Sunak.
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Paul Holland
Mortgage Broker at Henchurch Lane Financial Services
The property market has seen gargantuan price growth over the past 2-3 years. Healthy and sustainable house price growth is annual growth of circa 2%-3%, not 10%+. When that happens the wheels invariably come off. The growth we've seen is mainly due to the stamp duty holiday introduced in the summer of 2020 and demand across the board from people wanting to relocate due to the pandemic. People now have more flexibility to work remotely and others realised they wanted a different kind of living space after being trapped in their previous for the best part of 2020. Of course we expect a downturn in prices over the coming 12 months, but this should be viewed more as a correction than anything negative. The most likely outcome is a 5%-10% reduction over the coming year. Unless you purchased at 95% last year and intend to sell quickly, this shouldn't be viewed as too precarious a situation. There will also be some really good buying opportunities for those who are in the right position during the next year or so as prices come down, especially first-time buyers. Assuming they can find the still sizeable deposit, of course.
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Graham Cox
Director at Bridging Hub
My best guess is house prices will fall 15%-20% in 2023. Affordability, for first-time buyers is much tighter, affecting the whole market. Unable to borrow as much, prospective buyers will either wait or offer less. Anyone coming to the end of their dirt cheap fixed-rate deal and unable to afford the higher remortgage rates on offer will be a very motivated seller. Many will reduce their asking prices significantly for a fast sale, causing prices to fall sharply.
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David Robinson
Co-Founder at Wildcat Law
When it comes to the housing market, we are going back to the early 1990s. We are in for a long and drawn out fall in house prices rather than the big drops we saw during the Global Financial Crisis of late 2007 and 2008. However, like the 90s. inflation will mean that the real price of properties will fall much further in real terms. The real losers will be pensioners living in detached houses looking to downsize who may not be able to find buyers able to raise mortgages, and people who bought new builds under Help to Buy, which have already shed significant value and are facing the spectre of negative equity.