Copy article

Halifax April 23 HPI

ended 08. May 2023

Tomorrow morning at 07:00, the Halifax is publishing its April HPI. The index will be closely watched by the local, national and trade media after the Nationwide reported a 0.5% increase in average prices last month. So a few Qs…

  • Has the property market bottomed out, or are we likely to see more downward pressure during 2023 (and why)?
  • How, in your experience, were activity levels last month? Are any specific sub-sectors particularly active or quiet, e.g. FTBs, landlords, movers, developers)?
  • Have sellers become more bullish on asking price and in their negotiations with buyers over the course of the past month or so?
  • The Bank of England is expected to raise rates again this week. How will this impact the property market?
  • What's the property market like in your particular area? Buoyant, flat, marginally busier, etc?

Any other thoughts, insights or anecdotes, send them across.

6 responses from the Newspage community

Copy all

Star Quote
Copy

Editor
Chris Barry
Director at Thomas Legal
April was a short month with just 18 working days, however business levels remained comparable with March. We saw a higher level of first-time buyers and the clients I spoke to in April told me their property search lasted around 8 weeks on average. This means that clients who had their offer accepted in April would have looked at their mortgage affordability in February when mortgage rates were slightly higher. There seems to be an acceptance among buyers that mortgage rates won’t come down much further and that now is as good a time as any to buy. In addition, rents are increasing and in some scenarios, mortgage payments are cheaper than rents. I don’t see a decline in registering buyers in May, even with the likely Bank of England rate rise this week. Property prices are strong, banks have an appetite to lend and unemployment is still relatively low.
Star Quote
Copy

Premium
John Choong
Senior Equity Research Analyst at Investing Reviews
Despite weakness over the past year, the housing market may have bottomed out for several reasons. Primarily, mortgage approvals, which serve as a forward-looking indicator for future house prices are starting to rebound from its bottom in January. To complement this, the RICS survey seems to also be moving in the same direction, along with GfK consumer confidence data. More importantly, mortgage rates are continuing to drop from their highs last Autumn. And despite the likelihood of another rate hike this week, I don't imagine this will have a drastic impact on mortgage rates moving forward, given that cuts are already expected later this year/early next year. Instead, it'll be the central bank's outlook for future hikes that the market will pay most attention to, as any hawkish statements could put some downward pressure on a potential rebound in property prices in the near term.
Copy

Editor
Riz Malik
Independent Financial Adviser at R3 Wealth
Numerous lenders have recently adjusted their affordability calculations to account for elevated interest rates, subsequently impacting the potential borrowing amounts. This will continue to dampen property prices for the time being at least. However, should whispers of 100% mortgages making a comeback prove accurate, this could stimulate the lower rungs of the property ladder, potentially creating a ripple effect that extends upward. Pairing this development with a timely stamp duty holiday may provide the market with the necessary buoyancy to see us through until the end of the year when we could potentially witness a reversal in interest rate hikes. The property market eagerly awaits a boost to break free from this seemingly perpetual cycle reminiscent of Groundhog Day.
Copy

Editor
Andrew Montlake
Managing Director at Coreco
The sudden demise of the property market has been predicted time and time again, with the doom-mongers set to be confounded once again this year. Whilst the pace of growth has already dramatically slowed, which is to be welcomed, prices have not and will not fall by some of the more sensational margins predicted. After the shambolic politics of Truss, the markets have calmed and we are starting to see people return as they anchor themselves to the new norm of mortgage rates, react against ever-increasing rental costs, and look to buy in a somewhat softer market. Supply of property is still somewhat scarce, especially in high-demand areas, where prices are starting to edge up once more. With rumours abounding that the Government may well return to demand-side assistance with a new type of Help to Buy Scheme or similar, prices could be set to begin a recovery in the latter half of the year and certainly before a General Election.
Copy

Graham Cox
Director at Bridging Hub
I can't help but feel that the recent apparent rises in house prices are a dead cat's bounce. Whilst the economy hasn't performed as badly as feared over the past few months, real wage growth is negative, the number of mortgage approvals are way down on this time last year, and interest rates are still rising. Oh and like a bad smell, inflation is refusing to go away. There's always a chance Rishi Sunak will re-deploy Help to Buy again, or some other scheme to prop up house prices. Failing that, I think they'll fall 15% over the next 12-18 months. Which really will help people to buy.
Copy

Ross McMillan
Owner/Mortgage Advisor at Blue Fish Mortgage Solutions
The Scottish housing market appears to be remaining stubbornly bullish with an appetite and thirst for residential properties at most levels of the market seemingly unquenchable. With Home Report Values arguably more accurately reflecting current market conditions and sellers' expectations perhaps more reasonably managed, the amount that buyers are willing or needing to offer in excess of mortgage valuations does appear to be lessening, however. The ongoing and persistent attacks by the Scottish government on the private rental sector alongside diminishing yields have contributed to clear signs of a slow and steady exodus of non-professional landlords from the rental market with very little or no interest in buy-to-let portfolio expansion from professional investors. For first-time buyers in particular, this combination is not a negative trend but one that does appear to be fuelling strong activity in that sector and allowing more of this type of buyer to secure their first home.