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UK economy grows by 0.5% in February: "The markets aren't buying this higher than expected GDP growth figure"

ended 11. April 2025

The economy is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in February 2025, with growths in all main sectors, following January 2025 which showed no growth (revised up from a fall of 0.1%). Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.6% in the three months to February 2025, compared with the three months to November 2024, mainly because of growth of 0.6% in the services sector. Production sector output also rose in this period, by 0.7%, while construction showed no growth.

Newspage asked business owners in all sectors for their views on this surprise data (economists had expected a smaller rise of just 0.1%) and whether the economy is proving more resilient than expected. Might this be a last hurrah as tariffs and tax hikes put the UK economy under immense pressure in 2025? Views below.

7 responses from the Newspage community

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David Belle
Founder and Trader at Fink Money
The markets aren't buying this higher than expected GDP growth figure. Sterling is off versus the Dollar following the announcement, which says it all. It's also becoming increasingly difficult to believe a lot of the data emerging from the ONS. ONS workers have voted to strike, even though it’s been identified the production of data series have been extremely poor over the past few years, with revisions being made and data reporting being pulled due to poor surveying and other issues. Why should we believe the growth rate whether it’s good or bad in this case?
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Riz Malik
Independent Financial Adviser at R3 Wealth
The production sector was the saviour of this occasion following a previous contraction. However, that is before Trump decided to play roulette with the global economy and the tariff U-turn where we lost our advantage over other countries. This data will struggle to convince people that the UK is in a healthy position right now.
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Ranald Mitchell
Director at bad credit mortgage specialists Charwin Mortgages
Britain finally got into gear in February with the strongest monthly growth in nearly a year, but this rebound risks being short-lived. Trump’s tariff bombshell could slam the brakes on UK momentum just as the engine starts to hum.. Global uncertainty will undoubtedly have an effect on future months and the resilience of each sector will be tested to the max.
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Harry Goodliffe
Director at HTG Mortgages
This is a bounce, not a boom. 0.5% growth is a nice surprise, but it doesn’t match what we’re seeing on the ground. Most businesses are still feeling squeezed, and with tariffs, tax rises and shaky markets, this could be a blip rather than a trend.
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David Stirling
Independent Financial Adviser at Mint Wealth
This headline growth figure hides what is happening on the ground. Some businesses are on the brink due to higher costs with further pressure to come from hiked minimum salary and national insurance payments. Trump's tariffs are giving worldwide economies a fright even with the pregnant 90 day pause. These statistics this morning deflect from the real issues that the government needs to address, in helping smaller businesses to survive never mind grow.
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Kundan Bhaduri
Entrepreneur, Investor and Landlord at The Kushman Group
While these figures offer a glimmer of hope, markets remain unconvinced. The specter of looming tariffs and tax hikes casts a long shadow over the UK's economic resilience. Business owners across sectors express cautious optimism, but many fear this growth may be a fleeting reprieve before harsher realities set in. The services sector's robust performance, driven by computer programming, telecoms, and car dealerships, underscores the UK's adaptability. However, manufacturing's gains, buoyed by electronics and pharmaceuticals, may falter under global trade tensions and rising costs. Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces mounting pressure to sustain momentum amid inflationary pressures and waning consumer confidence.

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Harry Mills
Director at Oku Markets
Rising GDP growth is undoubtedly a positive story, and I'm sure PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves will jump at the opportunity to point to this news as a reason to cheer on their high-spending and high-debt fiscal policy – a glimmer of hope during a global market selloff, perhaps. No, I'm afraid not. Sterling is trading like a risk asset - the City joke of the 'Great British Peso' comes to mind as traders have roundly sold the quid against most G10 currencies. Comparing the pound to the euro, Britain's closest peer, we see the reality baked into the pound's lowest level since December 2023 being struck overnight. Markets won't be convinced by February's GDP lift due to the UK's self-inflicted economic damage through April's tax hikes on business, rising borrowing costs and Reeves' fudged fiscal "reforms" to retain her foolish Budget promise. Let us not forget, global economic growth is currently looking like stalling.