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Did Trump blink? "When the bond market began to turn on Wednesday morning, the game was up"

ended 10. April 2025

Newspage asked a selection of business owners and market experts whether they think Trump blinked, or if his tariff pause was all part of the plan. One said Trump has had his “Liz Truss moment", while another said: “The equity markets were the initial indication that all was not well (basically that his maths were hopelessly wrong) but when the bond market began to turn on Wednesday morning, the game was up.” Views from verified experts below.

7 responses from the Newspage community

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Rob Gill
Managing Director at Altura Mortgage Finance
Trump has had his Liz Truss moment and been forced into reversing a crazy economic policy by the markets. As the former Clinton political adviser James Carville once said, "I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody."
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Colin Low
Managing Director at Kingsfleet
Once the market began to react to the scale of his proposals, there was no way that Trump could win this battle. The equity markets were the initial indication that all was not well (basically that Trump's maths were hopelessly wrong) but when the bond market began to turn on Wednesday morning, the game was up. But this is not a past-tense story. He will need to show signs of further concessions over the next 90 days or we will see this volatility returning.
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Richard O'Connor
Director at First Mats
Trump’s playing poker with the global economy, and he’s just gone all in. It’s a risky move for him, and the US markets reacted fast, but he’s betting that the rest of the world will feel the pain more. The 90-day pause isn’t him blinking, it’s him waiting to see who folds. He’s using the threat of tariffs to force everyone back to the table, to play his game on his terms.
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Harry Goodliffe
Director at HTG Mortgages
Trump caved — and the markets noticed. After weeks of tough talk and market chaos, pressing pause now doesn’t exactly scream confidence. Whether you back the policy or not, businesses need consistency. You can’t plan for the next month, let alone the next year when the rules keep changing. This 90-day pause kicks the can down the road, and that’s the last thing anyone trying to grow or invest wants.
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Scott Gallacher
Director at Rowley Turton
As Clinton famously said, "It's the economy, stupid". Even Trump couldn't ignore the market collapse, let alone huge overnight price rises to the US consumer due to his ridiculous tariffs. Even he had to relent, or Congress would have taken action. Of course, there's still the China tariffs to contend with but I suspect that even these are watered down in due course. So, yes, he did blink.
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David Stirling
Independent Financial Adviser at Mint Wealth
It's hard to know whether Trump thought everyone would simply roll over and allow his tariff travesty go through unchecked or whether he was just chancing his arm. Either way, his tinkering with world economics is very unsettling with the markets going up and down like a fiddler's elbow. His 90-day pause on inflicting this pain doesn't help, with the world knowing it's eventually coming... or is it?
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Tony Redondo
Founder at Cosmos Currency Exchange
Did Trump blink before the almighty Treasury and bond markets? Possibly, but it’s more about the heat than the light. His 90-day tariff pause, with the exception of China, came as US Treasuries flashed distress—10-year yields dipped below 4% to 3.87% today, a flight-to-safety stampede after a $5.8 trillion S&P 500 rout. Bond markets didn’t force his hand outright; they just turned up the volume on the chaos his tariffs unleashed, with the FTSE 100 down 10% and the Nikkei off 9%. China’s 50% counterpunch and 60% recession odds call from JP Morgan had Wall Street screaming stagflation. Trump’s no bond nerd, but the author of the book “The Art of the Deal”. Trump reads panic—stocks surging 7% post-pause shows he dodged a deeper meltdown. It’s less a blink to yields than a squint at the abyss, stepping back to keep leverage for his “deal-making” flex. Still, the Treasury's power loomed large. The markets didn’t bend him, but they sure made him sweat.