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Amid Trump Slump and tariff war, "it may now be the UK’s time to shine on the global stage"

ended 11. March 2025

Across the pond, Donald Trump has not ruled out the US economy contracting while US stocks are heading toward their worst start to a presidential term since 2009 — weighed down by recession fears and tariff uncertainty. Reflecting this, the Nasdaq 100 sank up to 4% yesterday, its worst day since 2022, while benchmark Treasury yields have plunged as bets rose of supportive Fed interest rate cuts. The US Dollar index steadied after suffering its worst week in two years. Both the Pound and Euro remain at 4-month highs. Meanwhile, UK stocks look cheap and the UK may escape the worst of tariffs likely to hit the wider EU. Newspage asked experts whether the ongoing trade war and “Trump Slump” could benefit the UK economy and markets? Their views are below.

6 responses from the Newspage community

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Tony Redondo
Founder at Cosmos Currency Exchange
The "Trump Slump" could yield a "Brexit dividend" for the UK. The US economy is currently marked by rising recession fears and a huge stock market sell-off amid tariff uncertainty that now sees the tech-based NASDAQ 100 in correction territory and the Dollar down over 4% against the Pound and over 6% against the Euro in the last month. All of this is being driven by tariff uncertainty. UK stocks look undervalued, which could boost capital inflows. UK exporters could also gain a competitive edge if the UK escapes major US tariffs while the EU gets hit. The Pound may benefit if the Bank of England remains behind the curve in cutting interest rates compared to its chief peers, the Fed and ECB. While risks remain, the UK could benefit selectively from shifting global trade and investment flows in the weeks and months ahead.
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Gabriel McKeown
Political & Economics Writer at Sad Rabbit - Substack Newsletter
Investors once dismissed Britain as a Brexit-induced economic pariah, yet amid rising global trade tensions from Trump’s tariff playbook continuing to wreak havoc across the market, it may now be the UK’s time to shine on the global stage. With European exports, in the firing line, for Britain, this tariff battle could be the start of a post-Brexit dividend, with both the US and EU engaged in a tit-for-tat trade war, the UK could position itself as a neutral partner, leveraging its free trade agreements to fill supply chain gaps and present itself as a more stable intermediary. Furthermore, the UK now presents a more compelling risk-reward balance for long-term investors, and despite the FTSE lacking the high-growth technology giants that propelled US equities in recent years, this could actually serve as an advantage in an environment where value and stability are increasingly in demand. However, this will rely upon credible economic policymaking at home to sustain global interest.
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Riz Malik
Independent Financial Adviser at R3 Wealth
The US market dip and recession fears could make the UK and eurozone more appealing to investors. Some may buy the dip, but Trump’s yo-yo policies add uncertainty. With the UK economy needing all the help it can get, US troubles might just work in our favour.
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Harry Mills
Director at Oku Markets
Investors have turned cautious on the US economy due to recent underperforming economic data and President Trump's volatile approach to trade policy. There's much talk of the United Kingdom being spared Trump's tariffs due to its $14.5bn (2023) trade deficit with the United States, but that's only true when using the U.S.' data; the UK's data supplied by the ONS shows a substantial ($89bn in 2023) trade surplus in favour of the UK. This quirk of economic reporting is thanks to methodological differences in the calculations, with the U.S. including the Crown Dependencies (Jersey, Guernsey, Isle of Man), and some variations in services trade (specifically for financial transactions). If the U.S. data are to be believed, and the UK avoids Trump's tariffs, it may attract more investor confidence compared to its EU peers. However, a stronger pound could limit FTSE 100 gains, as its companies are more globally focused.
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Jamie Elvin
Director at Strive Mortgages
The “Trump Slump” and trade tensions could present opportunities for the UK. With US stocks under pressure and recession fears rising, investors may turn to undervalued UK markets. The stronger Pound and potential UK exemption from EU-targeted tariffs could further boost sentiment. However, global slowdown risks remain a concern.
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Pete Mugleston
Mortgage Advisor & Managing Director at onlinemortgageadvisor.co.uk
While Trump’s tariffs could create global volatility, the UK may find itself in a unique position to benefit. If US-EU trade tensions escalate, the UK – outside the EU – could negotiate more favourable terms with both sides. A stronger pound and relatively undervalued UK stocks may attract international investment as capital seeks stability. UK assets could become more appealing if the Federal Reserve cuts rates to support the US economy. While risks remain, the UK has an opportunity to position itself as a more stable and attractive market amid growing uncertainty across the Atlantic.