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Bank of England mortgage approvals - November

ended 04. January 2024

This morning, the Bank of England published its November Money & Credit report, showing net mortgage approvals for house purchases rose from 47,900 in October to 50,100 in November, and that net approvals for remortgaging increased from 24,000 in October to 27,000 in November. Meanwhile, net borrowing of consumer credit by individuals amounted to £2.0 billion in November, up from £1.4 billion in the previous month. Newspage sought reaction from brokers, below.

14 responses from the Newspage community

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This data matches what we saw on the ground. We experienced a surge in demand for both purchases and remortgages in November, and this trend continued in December and into the first week of 2024. Lower mortgage rates, falling inflation and the prospect of a cut to the base rate sooner rather than later, are driving demand and boosting confidence among buyers. December's figures, when published, could be even higher, as demand was off the charts. In January already, the mortgage rate war has been fierce as lenders battle it out for market share after a subdued 2023. With inflation continuing to ease, we are confident that the mortgage market will recover steadily in the first half of 2024 from its previous slump. Things are looking brighter as we start 2024 but the rise in consumer credit shows the stress many households remain under.
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November was hectic but demand for mortgages in December was outright insane. I had the busiest December ever as a mortgage broker. In fact, last month was one of the busiest months of 2023 in terms of the volume of mortgages submitted across both remortgages and purchases. So much for seasonal slowdowns. In the first week of January, not even a full working week, we will likely have booked in over 30 appointments with people looking to move or remortgage in Leeds, with 75% of those appointments being first-time buyers. A base rate cut in the first quarter could provide an additional shot of adrenaline that the market needs after 2023's doom and gloom.
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Charles Breen
Founder at C B
The fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the third was like night and day in terms of mortgage demand. It was as if a switch had been flicked and everyone realised things weren't as bad as they had been made out. Also, we're finding far fewer people are wanting to DIY their mortgages as they are aware of the speed with which rates are being cut, so are actively seeking advice and help. In the third quarter, we had just a few purchase applications but in the fourth, demand was up drastically. Already this week we have had as many new enquiries as we did over the entire summer of last year and we have only been back one day. The rate war and the constant publicity about rates reducing are playing a key role, and while I am loath to ever give credit to the Bank of England, their decisions at the end of the year to hold rates have been pivotal in people's perception and sentiment around mortgages and the wider property market.
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November and December definitely saw an uptick in enquiries, especially from the purchase market, which shows confidence among consumers is really starting to pick up as inflation and mortgage rates drop. There are signs of life at last. Rates are being cut daily and this is a trend that looks set to continue. Throw in a base rate cut in Q1 and we could see a sharp revival in the mortgage and property markets. There's still an air of uncertainty after the challenges stretching back to the pandemic, and the financial issues many households face are highlighted by the rise in consumer credit, but confidence is slowly creeping back in.
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The fourth quarter of last year saw a sustained increase in enquiries and activity after a challenging 2023 overall. This has continued through into January and there's been a good volume of enquiries from people looking to buy and refinance. With news of the mortgage rate war filtering through, and mortgage seekers looking at their options with a lot more interest, this year is shaping up nicely, so expect to see good levels of business despite the pessimistic outlook from many analysts.
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As inflation falls, confidence grows. November and December saw marked increases in mortgage enquiry levels compared to previous years, as glimmers of hope began to return to the market as inflation finally started to reduce in earnest. Based on current activity levels, the first few months of 2024 are shaping up to be very busy. The pent-up demand from 2023 is being unleashed onto the property market. The buyers' market we're still now in is arguably on borrowed time.
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Enquiries over the past two months have definitely increased, and while some may be a little more speculative and focused on a potential home move for later in 2024, there is a clear improvement in the mood of borrowers. Rates will find a new lower level over the coming months, backed up by a few base rate cuts as the economy allows. There is a real determination from some lenders to have products that appeal to all LTV levels, although lower LTVs will continue to dominate the headlines. These next few months will define the whole of 2024. It may be the time to grab those improving mortgage deals and also to find a property bargain before prices start to rise again.
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Activity picked up noticeably in November, and the fourth quarter was on a different level to the third. This all came off the back of falling inflation and constantly reducing mortgage rates. With the release of both Halifax and HSBC rates this week, the rate war is only going to intensify in the coming days and weeks. I very much doubt that the Bank of England will cut rates in the first quarter, and while the second quarter is still open to debate, I do believe it's likely as long as inflation continues its decline. I suspect activity will remain fairly level until we see the first rate cut from the Bank of England, as that will be the sign that the public needs to confirm that things are looking better.
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The back end of the year historically is normally a time of year when everyone is looking to get into party mode for the festive season, but this year saw an uptick in people looking to purchase a property, and with rates now dropping, there is going to be more action in the market. People with larger deposits or more equity will have plenty to smile about following the most recent rate changes by the major lenders.
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The end of the year finished strong with an increase in enquiries through November and deep into December. Even on Christmas Eve our telephone continued to ring. As more conversations about rate reductions and inflation falling hit the headlines we are seeing people starting to get ready to either move or look at locking in a remortgage as early as possible. The indicators from the fourth quarter of last year are extremely positive and we should see transactions in 2024 improve materially compared to last year. We're hoping that this influx of new enquiries will be matched by the number of properties coming onto the market to meet demand to avoid upward price pressure on house prices.
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November and December saw a marked increase in mortgage enquiries for us, no doubt because borrowers could see rates falling. This week has started well also. There's a definite shift in consumer sentiment out there. Long may it continue.
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Mortgage agreement numbers for November aren't great due to the fact that the recent uptick in application activity hadn't converted into offers at that stage. The Christmas and New Year period showed good new enquiry activity and so far the first week back for most is also looking extremely positive. Fixed mortgage rates are looking promising with a couple of large High Street lenders making savage cuts in order to keep their skin in the mortgage rate war. Our feelings are still that the Bank of England will make its first base rate cut in March.
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You expect to see the level of enquiries drop off in November and December as everyone winds down for Christmas however, that wasn't the case this year with many new enquiries coming in during those last few months of 2023; around double the number we had in the same period the previous year. I think mortgage and property demand will increase as rates reduce, as a lot of people who have been holding off for rate drops are encouraged by recent announcements.
Mortgage rates are reducing across the board with lenders still keen to lend at 75% LTV. This week so far has been busy. A record first week of January for me personally with 5 applications submitted already and 2 of those are for portfolio mortgages. I see demand rising further as lenders continue to cut rates.
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December kept us on our toes right up until the closing hours on the 22nd, as our schedule brimmed with activity. January has seamlessly carried forward this momentum, and we anticipate it gaining even more traction, particularly as lenders have shot out of the blocks in terms of lowering rates. The downward trend in rates is noticeable across all LTVs, and the potential reduction in the base rate by the Bank of England could trigger a significant surge in sentiment among buyers. Based on the past few months, brace for an extremely busy 2024.