Are house prices actually rising? Let’s settle it with data

National house price averages can tell you what is happening across the market, but they are a poor guide to what your own home is worth. If fewer high-value properties come to market, the national average can fall even though the value of a typical family home in your area has barely changed.

Asking prices and sold prices also measure different stages of the market. Asking prices reflect today's seller confidence, while sold prices reflect deals agreed weeks or months ago. For sellers, sold prices tell you what your home is worth; asking prices tell you how competitively you need to market it.

The key point is that asking prices and sold prices are two very different things. Asking prices reflect what sellers hope to achieve, while sold prices show what buyers are actually willing to pay. If you want the true state of the market, sold prices are the better indicator.

Rightmove's figures suggest sellers are becoming more realistic as stock levels remain high and buyers have more choice. That doesn't automatically mean house prices are falling – it means overpriced homes are less likely to sell.

For sellers, the biggest mistake is pricing based on optimism rather than evidence. The best guide is recent completed sales of similar properties in the local area, not the highest asking price on the street. In today's market, realistic pricing from day one is far more likely to secure the best outcome than reducing the price weeks later

Right now the honest answer is: house prices are broadly flat, but asking prices are under pressure. That distinction matters.

Rightmove is showing sellers cutting expectations, with asking prices down 0.6% in June and 0.5% below a year ago. Nationwide’s June data says completed/mortgaged prices were flat on the month and 2.2% up annually. The official Land Registry data is useful, but it lags, because it tells us what completed weeks or months ago, not what buyers are doing today.

A seller should not price their home using a national headline. They should trust live local evidence: what similar homes are listed for, how long they have sat, what has been reduced, and what buyers are actually offering.

In this market, overpricing is expensive. The first few weeks matter. If a home launches too high, it can go stale, need reductions, and end up selling for less than if it had been priced properly from day one. This is not a rising market everywhere. It is a buyer-choice market.

Ah, the Rightmove House Price Index, where dreams meet the brick wall of reality.

While headlines scream of a "market crash," the truth is just flat and boring. But let’s look at Rightmove’s favorite metric: - Sellers' Delusion.

Asking prices just tanked 0.6% in the biggest June drop in 14 years, based on Rightmove's own House Price Index - Why? Because sellers are finally realizing buyers have options and won't pay for their "aspirational" pricing.

Meanwhile, real-world data from Halifax and Nationwide (you know, where actual money changes hands on properties) shows prices are flat to slightly up annually.

The lesson? Ignore Rightmove’s "wishful thinking" index. Even their own market tracking data admits 32% of their listings have had to slash prices because their initial valuations were decoupled from Earth. Trust lender data, not Rightmove's property fan-fiction. Price it right from day one.